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Three reasons the Angels would be foolish to trade Mike Trout

(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

May 6, 2016 is the day the Los Angeles Angels playoff hopes died. The team currently sits at 13-15, and just lost their ace Garrett Richards to Tommy John surgery. Their rotation, which was already a major concern coming into the year, is now significantly worse. Their offense, aside from maybe three spots, is unsettled. Crazier things have happened, sure, but it just doesn't look like it's going to be the Angels' year.

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It doesn't end there, though. The Richards injury has forced many to acknowledge the sad truth about the Angels: This franchise is in horrible shape. The farm system is easily the worst in the majors, and maybe one of the worst ever (which is not an exaggeration). The team has significant money tied up in bad contracts. On top of all that, their razor thin depth has been exposed.

It wasn't hard to see this becoming a possibility before the season, but there was some hope an average staff could be supported by Mike Trout and the gang, somehow pushing the Angels to the playoffs. In order for that to happen, everything needed to go right. Every star needed to stay healthy and perform.

That will no longer be the case. With Richards done for at least a year, the rest of the rotation in shambles and no hope in the minors, trading Trout is at least a thing some analysts have discussed.

It seems insane. In fact, it might be insane. In an article over at FanGraphs, Dave Cameron wonders whether the Angels should make it a reality. While there are legitimate reasons to think it could help the team, there are at least three reasons why trading Mike Trout would be a terrible decision.

He's 24 years old, and still under team control through 2020
Trout is young and under team control for the next four seasons. In one sense, that makes him a more valuable trade asset. In another sense, there's no pressure on the Angels to make a move. It's not like Trout is leaving any time soon, and he's not going to regress due to age. In fact, he's not even in his baseball-prime yet. It seems dangerous and irresponsible to say Trout can actually get better, but if he follows normal aging patterns, which say baseball players peak at age-27 or 28, well ... you can figure it out. Let's just say there's no reason to think he'll get worse any time soon and go from there.

On top of that, four years is a long time. Richards might miss a year following surgery, but that puts him on pace to return some time next season. Same with Andrew Heaney, who might also need surgery. The Angels will also have $40 million to spend this offseason after Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson walk. If they spend that money well, they could assemble an interesting team that could be fun once Richards returns.

(Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
(Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

[Related: The Angels are in big trouble after losing Garrett Richards for the rest of the season]

 

While things look bleak and barren, it's possible the Angels could field a competitive team while Trout is still there. Maybe they find a hidden gem like Dallas Keuchel, or trade for a failed prospect who finally gets it. Maybe the farm system produces one guy no one saw coming. There are scenarios where things don't look so bad down the road. Admittedly, these are long shots, but they do occasionally happen.

Trading for prospects isn't always a sure-fire way to improve
Given Trout's talent and age, it's tough to find a strong comparison for a possible Trout trade. The best one might be the Miami Marlins (then Florida Marlins) dealing Miguel Cabrera to the Detroit TIgers in 2007. Cabrera was 24, and had put up excellent numbers, making him a decent comp for Trout. Cabrera had yet to receive a big contract, though, so it's not perfect. His extension came after the trade.

The cost for acquiring such a young, talented hitter at that time was two top-10 prospects. Those prospects were Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. Both busted horribly with Miami. Maybin posted a 2.4 WAR in three seasons before being traded to the San Diego Padres. Miller put up a 1.9 WAR in three season before going to Boston.

Since then, both players have improved. Maybin still hasn't really lived up to expectations, but he's been occasionally useful. Miller has developed into one of the best relievers in the game, but that happened long after he left Miami.

Trading for prospects has obvious advantages. And it would be the best way for the Angels to inject talent into an awful farm system, and prospects are cheap and cost-controlled. That said, there's considerable risk. Some prospects, even those considered top-10 guys, do bust. It happens.

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The Angels would likely want young, major-league talent in a deal for Trout, so any trade would probably include a combination of proven youngsters and prospects. That certainly an easier pill to swallow, as guys who have already produced in the majors are likely to keep playing well, but how many teams can legitimately make that type of offer? A number of teams would have to immediately be eliminated because they have no where near enough talent to make a fair offer for Trout.

(Photo by Matt Brown/Angels Baseball LP/Getty Images)
(Photo by Matt Brown/Angels Baseball LP/Getty Images)

Mike Trout might be the best player of all-time

This might be the biggest argument against dealing Trout. Flags fly forever, and improving your team and winning a World Series should be the goal of every organization every single year. If trading Trout gets the Angels closer to that goal, it makes sense from a logical standpoint.

But this is Mike freaking Trout we're talking about. The same guy who has hit .304/.397/.560 in his career. The same guy who has compiled a 40.4 WAR between the ages of 19 and 24, third-best all-time through age-24. And Trout just started his age-24 season. If he replicates the 9.0 WAR he put up last year, he could pass Ty Cobb and have the highest WAR of any player ever through their age-24 season. This is not hyperbole. Mike Trout could be the best player of all-time. He's pretty close to that pace right now.

How are Angels fans going to react if the franchise deals Trout? Even if the farm system looks good and the major-league talent is better, we're talking about a guy on a clear Hall of Fame pace. It would be a massive blow if Trout went elsewhere, continued to be awesome, and then entered the Hall of Fame in another team's cap.

Sure, a World Series title might soften that blow. That might make it worth it. But that's also asking quite a bit. If the Angels aren't able to complete that goal, and trade away one of the best players ever ... yikes! Just think of the nightmare.

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It's incredibly fair to look at this argument and conclude that a franchise shouldn't do things to appease fans. The primary goal should be improving the team. And that's a fair argument. But it's also Mike Trout. Do you really want your team trading that guy away? Saying yes might be logical, but it also makes you a heartless monster. Don't be a heartless monster!

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Chris Cwik is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at christophercwik@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Chris_Cwik