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Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild: Puck Daddy's NHL Playoff Preview
(The 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs are upon us. The good news for NBC: There are no Canadian teams to bring down the ratings. The bad news for Sportsnet: There are no Canadian teams to bring up the ratings. Such is life. Who wins the Cup? Read our insightful and informative playoff previews!)
How’d They Get Here?
The Stars got off to one of the hottest starts in the league at 19-5-0. Dallas didn’t have consecutive regulation losses until early January. Even after Tyler Seguin went out with an Achilles injury in March, the team turned it up down the stretch, going 8-2-0 to win the Central Division with 109 points.
The Wild went through a devastating stretch from January through mid-February where they won three games. This led to the team’s firing of coach Mike Yeo and hiring of John Torchetti as their interim coach. With Torchetti behind the bench, Minnesota went 15-11-1 to make the playoffs.
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Their Last Playoff Meeting
This is the first time both teams have faced one another in the playoffs. In 2011 the Wild beat the Stars in their final game of the season, preventing Dallas from making the playoffs.
Schedule
Thu 4/14, 8:30 pm: MIN @ DAL | NBCSN, SN360, TVA Sports
Sat 4/16, 8 pm: MIN @ DAL | NBCSN, Sportsnet, TVA Sports
Mon 4/18, 8:30 pm: DAL @ MIN | CNBC, Sportsnet, TVA Sports
Wed 4/20, 9:30pm: DAL @ MIN | NBCSN, SN360, TVA Sports
*Fri 4/22, TBD: MIN @ DAL | TBD
*Sun 4/24, TBD: DAL @ MIN | TBD
*Wed 4/27, TBD: MIN @ DAL | TBD
Offense
The Stars are the top offensive team in the NHL. Their 3.23 goals per-game led the league by a .21 scores per-game margin over the second-place Washington Capitals.
Dallas has arguably the top offensive duo in the NHL in Jamie Benn (89 points in 82 games), and Seguin who had 73 points in 72 games.
Jason Spezza found his goal-scorer’s touch this season with 33 tallies. It was the first time he eclipsed the 30-goal mark since the 2011-12 season. The Stars also have one of the top attacking defensemen in the NHL in John Klingberg, who finished tied for the team lead with 48 assists.
Three Wild players (Zach Parise, Charlie Coyle and Nino Niederreiter) finished with 20-or-more goals on the season – though Parise may miss the playoffs with a reported back injury. Defenseman Ryan Suter notched a career-high in points with 51 and starts their attack effortlessly from the back-end.
But they’re simply not nearly as powerful offensively as Dallas. Captain Mikko Koivu led the team with 56 points in 82 games played. That total would have ranked fifth on Dallas.
Advantage: Stars
Defense
The Wild’s defense ranked ninth in the NHL, allowing 2.49 goals per-game. The Stars were 19th in the league in allowing 2.78 goals per-game. In Dallas’ last 11 games, the Stars have allowed just two goals per-contest as they tried to adapt to Seguin’s injury.
A lot of the Wild’s system goes through their defense, specifically Suter, and their goaltending. Netminder Devan Dubnyk had a 2.33 goal-against average and .918 save percentage. He was solid, but wasn’t the same as a year ago when he was a Vezina Trophy finalist. Koivu is also one of the top two-way centers in the NHL and a potential Selke Trophy finalist.
The Stars have two goaltenders of equal ability and need to choose one for the start of the playoffs. Antti Niemi started 43 games and had a 2.67 goal-against average and .905 save percentage this season. Kari Lehtonen started 39 games and had a 2.76 goal-against average and .906 save percentage.
A lot of Dallas’ defense relied on them and having a fresh goaltender every night this season to compensate for travel and back-to-backs. In the playoffs there are no back-to-back situations, so this advantage could be neutralized.
Advantage: Wild
Special Teams
The Stars rank fourth in the NHL in power play at 22.1 percent. Their penalty kill ranks 10th in the league at 82.3 percent.
The Wild rank 15th in power play at 18.5 percent and their penalty kill ranks 27th at 77.9 percent.
Especially without Parise, the Stars should shut down the Wild’s power play. Dallas has some of the top puck movers in the NHL and can exploit Minnesota’s mediocre penalty kill in a big way.
Advantage: Stars
Coaching
Dallas coach Lindy Ruff has 1,411 games of regular season experience. In the playoffs he’s gone to a Stanley Cup Final and made three Conference Final appearances. He’s a savvy veteran who knows how to handle the postseason.
Torchetti has done a nice job of turning around the Wild’s season to a degree. He’s known as a fiery guy, who’s a good motivator. This could help in a short series.
Advantage: Stars
Five Key Questions
1. Who will the Stars start in goal?: Sometimes an embarrassment of riches for the regular season isn’t helpful in the playoffs. Lehtonen has a little more talent than Niemi, but Niemi won a Stanley Cup. Ruff will have a tough time choosing his goaltender, and if one falters, he may challenge conventional wisdom by switching goaltenders mid-series. Will having two solid goaltenders pay dividends or will it backfire?
2. Can the Wild cobble enough offense together without Parise?: Parise’s hard-nosed offensive style is built for playoff hockey. Without him, the Wild don’t have a ton of scorers. Coyle and Niederreiter can score, but they don’t have consistent game breaking talent. Sniper Thomas Vanek is also injured for the Wild heading into this series.
3. How will the Stars deal with Seguin’s return?: The Stars have done fine without Seguin in the lineup. But sometimes adding a player back into the group after an injury can upset chemistry to some degree. Seguin is a talented player who will help the Stars, but they’ll have to re-adjust to his presence.
4. Will Suter get overplayed?: Suter is a major minute-cruncher who can play large quantities of ice-time almost effortlessly. This year, he averaged 28:36 of ice-time per-game. In 2013 Suter averaged 31:37 of ice-time in the playoffs. The Wild will need to count on him to shut down the Stars attack. No doubt Benn and Seguin will be seeing a heavy dose of Suter during the series, and playing so many minutes per-night against two of the best offensive players in the NHL can be taxing. Will Suter have enough left in his tank by the end of the series?
5. Will the championship experience of Johnny Oduya and Patrick Sharp help the Stars?: The Stars acquired Oduya and Sharp in the offseason to bring a winning mindset into the locker room. Both players have five Stanley Cups between them from their time with the Chicago Blackhawks and will be asked to play a pivotal role in trying to help Dallas take the next step. This will be their first playoff series with the team.
Best Fantasy Options
Jamie Benn. He’s the NHL’s second-leading scorer.
Tyler Seguin. He’s averaged over a point per-game all three of his seasons with the Stars.
Jason Spezza. Has 52 points in 56 career playoff games.
Prediction
Stars in 5. Dallas peaked down the stretch of the season and shored up their defensive game, which was their biggest shortcoming most of the year. They have talented scorers up and down their lineup. This would have been a tough matchup for the Wild if Minnesota was at full strength. Without Parise it’s hard to see them staying competitive in the series.
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