Huge If True: Colorado's offseason plans likely very ill-advised

[Breaking down the plausibility of the week's biggest rumor.]

The Colorado Avalanche missed the playoffs again this year and got worse than they were last season, going .500 on the year.

It is really hard to go .500 or worse in the NHL these days, because of the loser point and because there are a number of teams that make it really easy to pick up easy wins. What the Avs seemed not to realize as they came into the year was that they were almost certainly one of those doormats.

The weird thing about the Avs is that they are more talented than most of the teams that finished in the general area of point-a-game. For example, Buffalo, Winnipeg, and New Jersey would likely kill to have Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie and Semyon Varlamov on the roster, among other decent enough players. The problem is clearly one of management.

Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy clearly thought this team was good enough to be competitive, but pursued some not-good additions in the offseason that actually did active harm to their chances. These moves were made in pursuit of intangibles (jam, leadership, etc.) that they thought would help but are actually valueless, or at least of so little value as to not even come close to outweighing the detriment the players allegedly providing those qualities carried with them.

The easiest change for the Avs to make and improve the team is, of course, to jettison both Roy and Sakic and replace them with people who actually understand the management side of the sport. And if you thought that was going to happen (ha ha ha), it was all but confirmed in the past week that it will, of course, not.

So how will they attempt to improve the team? Probably by making a sizable mistake or two.

The Rumor

While there are no concrete rumors out there quite yet as to what the Avs plan to do, we know that they're down for whatever.

Here's Joe Sakic, rolling out the cliches bright and early in this offseason: “Wayne Gretzky got traded — twice. We have to explore different options to see how we can become a better team.”

Gabriel Landeskog added that the players understand no one is immune to being traded, and Matt Duchene added that they have trust that Sakic and Roy can make things work (they shouldn't, obviously, but Roy's made it clear you gotta yes-sir the boss to death). Sakic also revealed that efforts will be made to overhaul the team's system to make them more competitive.

(My favorite stat of the Roy era is that the Avs get out-attempted by 10.7 per game in all situations. Compare that with Edmonton's 5.9-per-game deficit, and then remember the Avs have been trying to win this whole time, while the Oilers very much have not.)

But the most obvious area for a potential change is obviously the maybe-out-of-favor 30-goal-scorer Matt Duchene, who drew Roy's ire by celebrating his milestone goal in a(nother) blowout loss. He has long been a rumored trade chip for the Avs, who are looking to upgrade their blue line. Now, those rumors are getting a bit noisier.

As evidenced by last summer's Ryan O'Reilly trade, Sakic isn't afraid to make a move to ship out a guy who clearly makes the team better just because he's fallen out of favor with the coach. Trading Duchene would be another move like that and the player himself has acknowledged it's a real possibility at a few junctures now.

Also worth noting: MacKinnon and Barrie are both pending RFAs this summer, so for a non-cap team like the Avs to free up some cash by shipping out Duchene might be (incorrectly) seen as a potential benefit for the club in that regard too.

Other moves might be made as well, obviously, but this is the one that people should be thinking about as the biggest possibility.

Who's Going Where?

Okay so let's think about what happens if Duchene is on the block. Someone should want a 25-year-old who just broke 30 goals and had previously scored 20 four times. Especially because he's signed with a $6 million cap hit through 2019, which brings a lot of cost certainty to the proceedings.

Of note: The Duchene-out-the-door skids might be greased further by the rumors from Elliotte Friedman a while back that the Avs are considered the frontrunner for Alex Radulov.

And what are the Avs looking for? Defense, obviously. And if you listen to Roy, they'd really like defenders who have a good plus-minus. (Ahhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!)

The Avs need good blue liners very badly, even beyond what we can assume will be an extension for Barrie. They might also be disenchanted enough with Duchene, who again has been the subject of trade rumors for years, to make that swap. Especially if this really is a no-untouchables situation.

A recent dispatch from TSN's Frank Seravalli indicates that one team that would likely be interested in a trade is Ottawa, because the Sens were the only team to inquire after him when he was on the block the first time back in November.

That meets the Sens' needs, but who do they give up there? Marc Methot and Dion Phaneuf are both signed long-term and would likely be seen as “glue guy” defensemen who can provide leadership or whatever else the team needs that isn't a sizable positive impact. Add in the fact that there were some extremely unsubstantiated rumors out there last summer that the Avs might want to take Phaneuf off the Leafs' hands, and maybe there's something there, but I wouldn't bet on that.

Seravalli also points out that the Oilers might target a player like Barrie, though he doesn't specific whether that's by trade or offer sheet. Can't see the Avs being too eager to get rid of a defenseman in either event, so y'know.

The Implications

Trading Duchene would likely be a lot like trading O'Reilly: What you're losing in player quality you're not really making up for in quantity.

For O'Reilly — and Jamie McGinn — Sakic pulled Nikita Zadorov, Mikhail Grigorenko and prospect JT Compher (who tore up the Big Ten with Michigan this season).

The package for Duchene might end up being comparable in terms of value. However, you have to think, though, that the Avs want NHL-ready defenders coming back their way, and that shakes things up.

If Duchene is indeed available, the number of teams with even half-decent top-four defensemen should be ringing Sakic's phone off the damn hook trying to acquire him. This is especially true because it seems Sakic is not really all that good at this whole “GMing” thing, and if you can identify the sucker at the table you should really try to goad him into a bad decision.

Giving up on a 25-year-old 30-goal-scorer in pursuit of physical, leadership-y defense certainly qualifies as a “bad decision.”

Of course, other guys could be moved as well, but those trades would likely be both more out-of-nowhere, and certainly less impactful, than possibly moving Duchene because he doesn't lead well or celebrates too much or whatever.

This Is So Huge, If True: Is It True?

On a B.S. detector scale of 1-5, with one being the most reasonable and 5 being the least:

So basically what we're talking about here is doing something very dumb because they refuse to see the reality of their situation vis a vis the quality of the roster versus the quality of the management and coaching.

For this reason, we can reasonably assume a poorly considered decision is in the team's future. However, there's no evidence right now that a Duchene trade is happening any time soon, so right now we can only give this:

I'm assuming they're going to really step in it at some point this summer, but exactly how they do that is open for debate.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All statistics via War On Ice unless otherwise noted.)

MORE FROM YAHOO HOCKEY