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Huge if True: So it's come to this: A Patrick Marleau trade rumor
[HUGE IF TRUE is a column breaking down the plausibility of the week's biggest rumor.]
The Rumor
Here's how you know for sure that the whole “The Sharks Are Gonna Trade Patrick Marleau This Year And This Time I'm Serious It's Real” thing is overblown: When asked about the latest round of rumors, the man himself said, “Starting early this year.”
The genesis of this particular rumor, as I'm sure you're all well aware at this point, was Elliotte Friedman's report on Hockey Night In Canada's “Headlines” segment with Damien Cox:
“We begin with a complex one. It's difficult to pin down because none of the particulars are talking. The trade market is tight right now, but one of the names we're hearing out there is Patrick Marleau. Now, he's got a no-move clause, there's zero evidence the Sharks have asked him to waive it. So I can't say who is pushing for it, but his name, Damien, is definitely out there.”
So this is basically the really, really great fertilizer for any rumor. That gets reported on Saturday night, and by the time midweek arrives, the hockey world is in chaos over the potential of a Major Trade happening.
1) This is a player who is rumored to be traded every year,
2) He's old but still pretty good.
3) He's on a team that's good but not great.
4) He has a no-move clause.
5) It's the only major rumor out there.
6) The team he plays for isn't talking.
7) The player isn't talking
8) Potential other teams in the trade aren't talking.
Who's Going Where?
If no one's talking, as Friedman notes, then this is a rumor that comes from somewhere, but also everywhere and nowhere. Further, a no-move clause in and of itself is always something you can count on for generating a lot of clicks all by itself, simply because that means you can speculate as to where Marleau would allow himself to be traded in the first place.
That's not to say that Friedman isn't just communicating what he hears, but what he hears allows for a lot of speculation from the, shall we say, less reputable click-bait types out there. To wit: “Source: Sharks' Marleau would accept trade to one of three teams.”
This headline in and of itself is confusing. Is it one team or three? He can only be traded to one of 29 as a jumping-off point, or one of three potential destinations of his choosing. He cannot be traded to two of his preferred destinations.
But semantics aside, look at the teams actually named in that link. They are the Anaheim Ducks, Los Angeles Kings, and New York Rangers. Would you happen to have any alarm bells going off right this second?
That's right, two of the three teams to which Marleau would apparently accept a trade just happen to be in the same state — and more importantly the same division — as the team for which he currently plays. Not the most realistic trade partners, but you can see it in the whole, “He wants to stay in California,” idea.
In addition, the Rangers are always a good choice for a trade rumor because people care about the Rangers and they occasionally pull off a big enough trade to make all rumors such as this plausible.
Moreover, all these teams have a bit of a cap crunch on the books, not only for this year, but a few to come. Marleau is signed at $6.7 million — a big number for anyone, let alone a 36-year-old — for this year and next. I'd be surprised if the Sharks are willing to retain salary, especially if Marleau is the one asking out.
But here's the big twist this time around: Bob McKenzie reported early yesterday (and remember, this is after the hockey world had all of Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday to speculate about this) that it seems to be Marleau who asked the Sharks to explore trade options for him. That actually makes sense, because late last year, Sharks GM Doug Wilson said he wouldn't ask players with NMCs to waive them. So if Marleau is the one asking, that's why you're starting to see some more serious talk. Especially because he actually hired an agent over the summer after getting his current deal without one.
McKenzie further adds Los Angeles would be interested but would need cap help to make it work, Anaheim doesn't really see how it would work, and the Rangers don't really have a want or need for Marleau. Fortunately, because of his NMC and the idea that Marleau is the one pushing for a trade, you could see more teams come into the fold very soon.
Indeed, Craig Custance reported as much yesterday, saying, “An NHL source confirmed the report regarding those three teams although they were categorized more as a preference rather than the only three teams in the league in which Marleau would accept a deal, keeping the door open for another option to emerge.
The Implications
This time a Patrick Marleau trade rumor might actually be true and come to pass. It would be a surprise to see it finally happen, but everyone ranging from extremely reputable (McKenzie, Friedman, Custance) to less so (Kurz) is on this.
Further, Custance said that the difference this time is that not only has Marleau — and to a lesser extent Joe Thornton — constantly been blamed for the Sharks' problems over the last few years, but this time they also took the 'C' and 'A' off their two veterans' jerseys as an additional insult. As such, Marleau might just see the writing on the wall, realize the Sharks are only pretty good this year and would need a ton of help to even get close to winning the Cup, and just decided to say, “Smell ya later.”
And all of this, by the way, is predicated upon other teams wanting to actually trade for him. McKenzie's reporting has none of the three teams mentioned being particularly interested unless they can figure something out with San Jose that would make the trade easier to complete. Hard to say what that is. Further, San Jose accepting such a trade would necessarily require the other team to overpay in terms of picks and prospects, because they should have no real want of offloading a guy like Marleau, who can still play at a reasonably high level (his “down year” last season still netted him almost 60 points).
The Sharks have basically no reason to pursue this other than the player asking out, which sounds like it hasn't been done all that forcefully. Sounds like more of a, “Hey Dougie, wouldn't mind if you'd explore your options for trading me,” thing. But they're playoff-competitive right now, especially in that trash pile of a division and trading Marleau almost certainly means running up the white flag on 2015-16 unless they get comparable NHL talent in return, which would be difficult because LA, Anaheim, and New York are all looking to stay competitive as well.
Maybe the Sharks now see that it's prudent to sell on Marleau and try to get better for two or three years from now. But if they do, that probably means Joe Thornton would be among the next players out the door. Why hold onto one and not the other if you can avoid it?
But as always, if it's a trade rumor before U.S. Thanksgiving, your best bet is to take stock and keep an eye on it. Almost nothing in this league happens before they're carving up turkeys from SAP Center to Madison Square Garden.
This Is So Huge, If True: Is It True?
On a B.S. detector scale of 1-5, with one being the most reasonable and 5 being the least:
All the smoke from legitimate sources, indicates to me that there's probably a decent amount of fire burning somewhere as well. So this gets:
It's as close to a sure thing as you can get without an imminent trade. Again, it doesn't seem like a trade is imminent, but if the player is the one asking out this time around, then it's the most-real a Patrick Marleau Trade Rumor is ever going to get without just happening out of the blue one day.
Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.
(All statistics via War On Ice unless otherwise noted.)
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