Djokovic can win French Open

Like the start of last year's clay season, the question of who will dominate on this unique surface has arisen. For several years we were used to seeing Rafael Nadal having most of the answers, but a change came last season with the rise of Novak Djokovic.

Not only did the Serb take Nadal's number one spot, but he went so far as to hunt on Rafa's turf, preventing him winning most of the clay events, most notably in Madrid.

I remember that, after Djokovic's outstanding start to last season, journalists were wondering if he had what it takes to shine on clay. He set the record straight by winning titles in Rome and Madrid - and by beating the king of clay, Rafa.

Yet doubts remain for some people, who focus on two key points: first, Nole lost in the semi-finals of the French Open - the only Grand Slam missing from his collection; second, there is the argument that his success on clay last year was more a result of his imperious all-surface form 'carrying' him through, as opposed to any particular improvement on clay.

Therefore this year we need to look at his overall confidence, and how this will help him at the start of the clay season. In this respect I feel that Novak is at the same point as last year, but that he's not expressing it in the same way.

In 2011, he was flying high. It was new for him to be at the top of the tree and that feeling was pushing him forward. That feeling of invincibility could only last for so long, however. The Serb now has to find an emotional balance suited to staying at the top rather than making it there. I think he's on his way to finding it.

He is managing his matches much better, finding wins without putting too much emotional effort into it, only giving his all at the key moments. He knows that this energy has to be saved for the most important matches, against dangerous opponents when he will have to be at 100 per cent from the first to the last point.

Novak may have won less so far this season when compared to the same time last year, but he still took the first Grand Slam of the season, plus a Masters title. In my opinion, he's in total control of the situation, saving himself for the strong points of a season that will be heavier than last year because of the Olympic Games.

The French Open, Wimbledon, the Games and then the US Open will be the tournaments where a player like Djokovic has to be on top of his game. So now he has to know how to save his energy in order to deal with his season.

In 2012, it seems to me that overall he is just as dangerous as he was in 2011. So mentally and form-wise he is there — but how, if at all, has he improved his weapons on clay specifically?

Nole's powerplay

One of Djokovic's best weapons is his positioning on the court.

Contrary to the stereotype, clay can be mastered by players able to dominate from the baseline. Novak often takes the lead because of the way he starts a point - serve and return - and he knows how to keep going by remaining on the baseline.

He puts in a high tempo because of how early he takes the ball, suffocating his opponent. His rivals are out of breath, have to move back and so let Nole take over.

This 'takeover' begins with the start of the point; he dominates immediately and refuses to relinquish control. His serve helps a lot in this respect because he has managed to master the slice and topspin, putting the opponent off court with the first shot.

Regarding the return, Djokovic is one of the two best players in the world in percentage of points won after first and second ball from his opponents.

He puts his entire bodyweight forward, strikes the ball with high quality and determination.

His other strength is his game style. He has the physique, the mental resistance and the patience to handle long points.

He's the kind of player who builds his points, but who knows how and when to seize opportunities to end the point. It's an obvious advantage on clay, a surface requiring more patience and point development than the others.

His defensive game is one of the most efficient in the world. It's very useful on a bad day, when Plan A isn't working or when the pressure is high and the ability to take the lead is reduced. On clay, it's another obvious quality.

Finally, while Nole's best shot is still his backhand, I think his forehand is more efficient on slow surfaces and particularly those that bring shots to life after they hit the floor.

Nole's forehand has a lot of topspin: he doesn't like to be attacked with pace on this shot, or have to use it against sliced serves. On clay though, he can use his forehand a lot more, giving him an extra weapon in his dominance strategy.

How can he be stopped?

The Serb obviously has everything needed to shine on clay. So what could prevent him from winning the French Open this year?

Nole is his own worst enemy as he can be a victim of overconfidence at times, such as his semi-final against Roger Federer in Paris last year.

He tried to beat the Swiss master at his own game and, while the feeling of invincibility can be an extraordinary weapon, it can also turn against him, clouding his judgement.

But this year Nole has more experience and really wants to triumph in Paris so he can make the full Slam in two years. He will be very focused.

His second enemy is Federer. He's the player who gives him the most problems: he prevented him from reaching the last French Open final, and has had two match points in their US Open semis. The Swiss, back to his best, has the game to upset the Serbian.

He also has a third enemy: strangely, given it is one of his strengths, it is his positioning on the court.

When he faces someone able to handle his rhythm and push him back, Novak loses his state of dominance. Few players can achieve this level of performance.

For me only Federer - in those two Grand Slams in 2011 - and Andy Murray - for two sets at the Australian Open 2012 — have been able to do this.

But as far as I'm concerned, Nole will be the big favourite for Roland-Garros in 2012.