Simon Reed

Serena my favourite … just

Simon Reed

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I think only six women can win Wimbledon this year: Serena and Venus Williams, Samantha Stosur, Kim Clisjsters, Maria Sharapova and Justine Henin.

It's not really a huge surprise that I see Serena as the favourite to win it, even though her sister has won the tournament more times and is more at home on grass.

I think Serena is the likeliest winner, but I would be looking for and expecting an open tournament in the women's draw. Just like at Roland Garros, I don't think anything is nailed down this year, by any means.

It could be the case that an outsider does extraordinarily well, but it's those six players who are the warm favourites. There are more contenders to win the men's draw than in the women's singles, which is probably unusual in recent times.

I don't see Caroline Wozniacki, Jelena Jankovic or Francesca Schiavone as real contenders. I don't think they move well enough on grass, or have done enough on the surface.

Seventh seed Agnieszka Radwanska has lost a bit of form, but Na Li could be a dangerous floater, as could Aravane Rezai. If I was looking for my best outsider, I would probably opt for Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez of Spain.

She is on the up and has a game suited to grass. As an outsider, I would be looking for her to do well. She possesses the best chance of causing an upset or two, in my opinion.

The two players who have mentally best handled the big occasions over the past seven or eight years are Serena Williams and Justine Henin. Both have lost their nerve a little bit, and it could be the one who regains it will win the title.

If either of them rediscover a bit of belief and confidence, then they will obviously be hard to beat.

I doubt very much if Justine will recover it in time for Wimbledon. If you listen to her at press conferences, she is not expecting to win Wimbledon this year. She has that doubt, but you wouldn't hear those type of comments from Serena before Wimbledon.

For that reason, I would make Serena my favourite. Everything that Justine does - right or wrong - she is always looking to her coach for ratification, which is quite extraordinary when you think of her ability.

In losing to Samantha Stosur at the French Open, Justine looked ready to collapse when it came down to the key moments, even though her opponent was also ready to collapse.

I'm not predicting a win for Serena at Wimbledon with any great confidence, but if you pin me down, I'd go with the American's powerful game on grass.

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