Manchester United Message Board
There are some really nutty pieces on the movement of the share price around today. Its portrayed as the end of the world if the price falls below the $14 range. Actually today it went down to nearly $13 and is now back up to nearly $14 again, this is what happens to share prices!
Anyway my point was that the ( unfortunately meagre) £75m or so to pay off debt is unaffected as it was realised on flotation. But of far greater significance is that a real fall in price is a GOOD thing. It makes absolutely no difference to the income or profits of the business but a hell of a lot of difference to the Glazer's appetite for keeping the stock. And as a price marker means that a prospective buyer could interest our Floridian friends at a lower value, making a sale more likely. Conversely a higher share price makes it more likely the Glazers will stick around to extract more value from subsequent offerings.
So when you read the tidings of doom put out by idiots masquerading as 'informed commentators', remember they are talking rubbish.
As you say, fluctuations in the share price don't affect the profits from activities. But this makes a lower temporary share price less attractive for the Glazers to sell, not more. Suppose the Glazers can extract a year on year £100m from United's operations. If their equity dips to, say, £500m there is little incentive to sell. But if it increases to £3bn there is great incentive to sell and invest the proceeds elsewhere.
Your post sounded like Devon putting a positive gloss on losing league matches by telling us that it would reduce the bonus payments, or make future opponents under-estimate you, or something.
- 4 Replies to Robert M
Exactly Robert!!! You said it all.
I was going to write a post with the exact same logic. No sensible investor will sell an asset when the market price is well below what he believes the "real" price to be. The Glazers value United at much more than 1.6bn pounds and therefore has no incentive at all to sell now. They will wait for Fergie to hopefully bring more success and thus more money. This, according to them, will drive the market value up and when they feel that the value is high enough for them to make a killing then only will they sell.
Ah Robert, so interested in United as usual, or just trying to show how clever you are?
Anyway, the problem with your analysis is that with an open reporting on transactions any major extraction of funds by the Glazers on United's operating cash flow would just make the share price dip even lower. As the notional value of their United shares is just about their only valuable commodity in their wealth portfolio against which they can borrow or lever, that would make the situation even worse for them.
If the share price rose in value they could afford to either extract more cash directly, or more likely add to shares on the open market and raise cash that way.
A significant fall in share price is only going to end in one way, a successful takeover by a cash rich buyer. Indeed the Glazers have loaded the IPO with termination payments for just this eventuality.
Try again Robert, its fun seeing you squirming in such a pseudo-intellectual manner.