Fab, It's difficult to judge a 'good manager' isn't it? But that's the luck of the game (and life in general) isn't it? Being in the right place at the right time. When 'arry was asked years back re the England job, he basically said that there are loads of 'English' lower Division managers that he thought could do a good job even at National level and knew about football. But, he knew as well as we all do, that they'll never get a chance. AVB then has two seasons + in mainstream management, and is lauded as the next messiah. I think I'd prefer a manager who had been through a few ups and downs and learned how to treat/handle both success and failure (I suppose you could say that is what AVB's experience is on the nail!)
Irrespective of what was thought about 'arry at the end, AVB has a thankless task ahead IMHO. I guess that 'most' will now expect 4th at least - so even if he does manage that, it won't be seen as the achievement that it is nowadays (with your bunch, the Chavs, Pool, Utd, Citeh and maybe with Toon and/or another dark horse all potentially in the running).
Wonder if AVB has ever been asked (or been linked with) the Portugal job ;-)?