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  • Sfer Sfer Nov 7, 2012 09:39 Flag

    Give AVB more time?

    Whenever the subject of how much time you should give a failing manager to turn it around, get his system working etc, comes up people almost always point at Old Big Red Nose or David Moyes.

    My problem with that is they are the exception as opposed to the rule. Plus they have both had very different amounts of success. OBRN has of course won everything going over a very long period of time. Could anybody else have done what he has done? Who knows but unlikely. Moyes has in contrast won nothing. His claim to fame is that he has kept Everton in the PL with very little money. Two very different meanings of success.

    How long is "enough time" and if you give the manager enough time and it fails where does that leave your beloved team?

    What - 5 years, 10, 2 ?? OK, so you give him 2 years and say to yourselves "no matter what happens we give this guy 2 years" and at the end of the 2 years you are in the Championship, mid table, the ground is nearly empty and all your best players have gone with no chance of replacing them. Do you stick with the manager on the basis that he needs more time then?

    There is too much at stake for everybody, the owners, the players and the fans, to stick by someone that you "hope" will turn it around. Its a tough old world and whilst you might not expect a new manager on several million pounds a year (sarcasm!) to win his first 6 or even 10 games, you would certainly expect him to have the crowd, the management and most importantly, the players on his side.

    Joe, in another post, said that getting rid of a manager too quickly showed a small club mentality. I don't agree with that. Are Chelsea a small club? Have they got rid of several managers after relatively very little time? Yes, are they CL Champions who will no doubt be in the top 4 (or 3) again this year - yes.

    There are two differences between the AVB at Chelsea and the AVB now. First, he has been told to smile more when doing TV interviews and second, well there is no second from what I can see.

    He has adopted the same negative team tactics, he has made some very strange sub decisions and subsequently that has put some of the neutrals in the crowd against him, he "appears" to have lost the support of some of the senior players (already), he looks like insisting on playing 4-5-1 with tiny Defoe up front on his own and even though he smiles more - he still looks like a smug git.

    Yes of course we will win some games this year and I do not expect us to be in the relegation scrap but for a team that most neutrals and "experts" think should be fighting for 4th is that good enough? And what about next year whilst this "transistiion period" that is somewhere in AVB's mind is going on, where does that leave us? watching boring negative games and seeing our best players leave - that would be my guess.

    I dearly hope I am wrong but all the facts (as I see them of course) do not point that way.

    So, and this is only my opinion of course, AVB is not going to be the saviour we all crave, not now and not next year. And on that basis, regardless of the flack we would get from those who think everyone deserves "more time", I would start looking for someone with all the qualities that a top manager has right now. That "flack" would be long forgotten if we were to actually win something or even get into the top 4.

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    • Sorry Sfer, I was just writing my post on AVB whilst you were doing this one. So I'll not comment again on here.

    • I would only guess that the time limit was discussed when AVB was appointed - and the targets set to be able judge the progress.

      For me, a player takes time to settle and most people are happy to give a player a season to see how they fare. A manager, unless they're happy with the squad, has to build the squad they want and to get the assembled players playing in whatever style - so I would give a couple of seasons - or should I say main transfer windows.That would take him to Christmas 2013 to see the effect of his ideas.
      AVB's appointment was oddly timed though, as players appear to have already been targeted/bought and arranged to be sold before he officially turned up. So it's difficult to judge if the purchases/sales in the last main window were his or not.

      I would also guess that the project targets set would have been a trophy and at least Europe for this season, with the trophy main target being the Europa. I just can't see Levy being happy with potentially dropping down the league without somehow keeping our profile up in Europe.

      As for SAF at Utd, didn't he have four or five dodgy seasons at Utd when he first took over?

    • Sfer,

      All success is relative, therefore IMO SAF and Moyes have both been relatively successful. Had they both had the same resources, I might have a very different opinion of Moyes.

      It took Furgeson 3 years to win a trophy and 6-7 years to win the league, despite relatively high levels of investment and almost complete control of transfers, so making a judgement on AVB's future with us after 5 months is IMO to fast.

      AVB hasn't even had the chance to sign 'his own' players yet, as Levy seems to have decided who he'll have (do you get to interview those who work under you). Levy failed to sign Moutinho and Willian and therefore we don't have sufficient cover and Hudds is played because of it. I think we agree he just isn't good enough?

      I feel it is an unfair comparison looking at Chelsea as an example, they have invested heavily in everyone of the managers they have appointed, we can never invest to that extent and although it saddens me to say, the more you spend the more success you'll get- Look at what Citeh have achieved and the money they needed to spend to do it. Therefore Chelsea could and should expect more. IMO we are not and cannot compete with the Chavs.

      With the players we have at our disposal and the the amount Levy has spent, do you think we should be doing better? We are 1 point behind where we were this time last season. When we hadn't had the upheaval and our key players were all fit! (apart form Hudds, ha ha ah soz~)

      Do you think after 5 months AVB has been able to implicate all the changes he plans to? Do you think after 5 months the players we have brought in are likely to be playing to their full potential? I don't, I think it would be naive in the extreme to suggest that would be possible or likely.

      IF Levy was to take your advice and sack AVB now, what that would really demonstrate is that Levy isn't up to the job, if a chairman can be influenced that much by fans, then what hope is there for the club. We'd change managers once a month.

      No matter who the manger is, some fans will not like them.

      You can't keep all the people happy, all the time.

      What you can do is look at what has happened in the last 6-8 months and try and be realistic, I don't think you are.

      Had the Chavs stuck by AVB and invested the same amount of money as they have in Di Matteo,there is every chance they would be in the same position. The changes that AVB was trying to implicate (in with the new- out with the old) has largely been carried on by Di Matteo anyway, who has also had the benefit of Hazard, Oscar, Marin- we haven't come close to matching that quality.

      If we finish this season in 5-6th, then I think I'll still want us to give AVB another season.

      I don't think we can attract the very best players, as we cannot offer CL football (not AVB's fault) and we cannot match the wages of the Chavs, Citeh, Manure, Liverpool or the Goons (not AVB's fault).

      If we unearth another Luka shaped Gem then great 4th may become consistently achievable, otherwise we will be aspiring to finish 4th at best IMO.

      Sorry about the length (it can be a real pain :>{)), but there was a lot to address in your post.


      • 1 Reply to Joe
      • Joe,

        SAF has been "relatively" successful? Crumbs, you are a hard one to please. As I said, SAF's honeymoon was 25 years ago and things were very different then. Presumably AVB knew the score as far as transfers go when he took the job. If he accepted that Levy took control of that he has to live with it. And yes, not only do I interview everybody I work with I choose who gets hired (and who gets fired) and I pay them out of my pocket.

        I only used the Chavs as a comparison when you said that sacking a manager quickly showed a small club mentality. Yes, if you spend the level of money that the Chavs and Citeh have done the expectation is a lot higher to win something but that does not mean we cannot expect some sort of success does it? If thats the case every team other than Manure, Citeh and the Chavs may as well give up and go and start another league. Its not like we have not spent any money is it.

        "With the players we have at our disposal and the the amount Levy has spent, do you think we should be doing better? We are 1 point behind where we were this time last season. When we hadn't had the upheaval and our key players were all fit! " As I have said, its not about the points or where we are, its about how we are playing and the way AVB is going about it. We also had more than our fair share of upheaval last year Joe didn't we. Arry's court case, Arry dallying with the England job.

        I don't expect after 5 months to be ahead of manure, Citeh or teh Chavs, and I don't "expect" to be 6th necessarily but I do expect us to be playing attractive football and creating goal scoring opportunities regardless of injuries. Its a very long time since anyone accused me of being naive!!

        One thing is for sure, I am not expecting Levy to take my advice. I would not expect him to take a few hundred supporters disquiet as advice or even a few thousand. If it becomes the majority however, then yes I would expect him to take some notice after all its the fans that make a club isn't it?

        There is no evidence to suggest that had the Chavs stuck by AVB he would hav had the same success as Di Matteo. Terry and Lampard are still there and would not have been but more importantly his negative style of play was not working. He lost the team and consequently he lost the Board. And I can feel a de ja vue moment coming.

        So 5th or 6th and you will be ok with AVB having at least another year? So would I - surprised? You shouldn't be if you have understood where I am coming from. I would be happy with 5th or 6th (I would be even happier with 4th of course) but my concern and fear is that under AVB that is very unlikely and actually it will be much worse than 5th or 6th.

        We all want to unearth anouther gem - a couple of our existing players playing to or above their potential would be good enough to me. Do Pool and Ar$e pay more than us?

        Anyway, we could go round and round on this, it is unlikely that AVB will go any time soon so we will get the chance to see if you are right won't we. I sincerely hope you are.

    • It's all opinion Joe.
      I'm not for boo'ing - I see that people pay money and want to express their feelings, but IMHO, boo'ing is indiscriminate and counter productive. To do/play well you need to feel good - boo'ing is intended to make the target feel the opposite.

      AVB was brought in to, presumably, do 'better' than we had before.
      I find it slightly odd that now some comments here are about playing good football and ignoring position. Didn't we have the opposite under 'arry - he played some of the best football I've seen at WHL, but because we missed out on CL he got slammed. That was the reason Modric left blah blah. we can't attract top class players blah blah.
      They forgot that the style of football is what got us noticed across Europe - not just in this country. Odd that Citeh with all their stars didn't light-up Europe as we did.

      Now we have AVB who is more reserved and tacky-tickle. BUT people don't like his tactics any more than they liked 'arry's alleged lack of them. I bet supporters at Citeh don't always like Mankini's tactics, or Wengers at Woolwich. Aren't most supporters back seat managers who think they know better?

      So what is '..better than before..'? Is it position in the EPL? Is it trophies? Is it style of play? Is it, like it seems to partly be, simply a better personality?

      I'm with Sfer in a way, in as much as I don't like AVB too much as a personality. I don't think he's arrogant, more of a 'style over substance' type. But he has been appointed as the manager and will be the manager until the board/Levy decide he's to go. So, until that point, get behind him and the team.

      I think now people want 'style' back. But we had that and wanted something more. What managers are capable of providing both and have a record of doing so? Moyes - not for me - but he seems to have supporters here.

      If players won't come to us because of no CL, why would any top manager? And how do you become a top manager, without managing at the top level? AVB may be a top manager in the waiting. He may not. Levy will decide on how long he has to show he's a top manager.

      PS I also didn't agree with the article's '......'arry took us as far as he could....' and then using the second half of seasons as examples as to why. Based on that you'd have to use first halves as well - so should Wenger have gone as they didn't perform in the first half - but they came strong in second? If they got rid of him they would never have known they would have finished 3rd. Judge on the season. Judge over multiple seasons.

    • According to this article all the old fans suddenly decided to not attend and to give their tickets en masse to a load of new fans that happened to be waiting outside. They then watched the game and all boo'd. How ridiculous is that theory?

      This guy actually says "given more time AVB is sure to succeed". If ever anybody was so obviously one sided this has to be it. No doubts, just plain old fact - in his mind. He can be no more sure AVB will succeed than I am that he will fail so to write this as fact is again, ridiculous.

      He states, yes STATES, that VDV was one of our two best players. Not for me and not for many others he wasn't - by a very long way. I didn't, at the time or since, see a mass of angry and sad fans wailing at the gates when it was revealed he had gone. Unyet, according to him that is one of the reasons we are not playing so well.

      Apparently, according to this joker, AVB was not supported by Levy in the transfer market. How the hell does he know that? Levy gets much praise for keeping THFC financially safe but this guy seems to be saying that we should let the manager buy whoever he likes regardless of the cost and how much the player wants in wages. If every team adopted that philosophy the PL would be in financial meltdown in weeks.

      There is not one independent, unbiased criticism of AVB or his tactics in this article. Its almost as if it was writen by AVB's Mum.

    • ha ha ha ha,

      Cheers Sfer, that response was hilarious and has cheered me right up. I though it might pull a few chains, glad you enjoyed it as much as I did.



    • Apart from the bit about getting Arry back (I am not sure that would be a good move) I am with you as far as AVB is concerned Derek.

      One season of success with Porto does not a PL top 4 manager make!!

    • So is being a top 4 manager about which team you manage or the manager himself? Or both? Which carries the most 'weight'?

      Could say, Martinez get Wigan to the top 4? Could Alardyce with West Ham? Could 'arry have with Portsmouth?

      How on earth do you know who is a 'top 4 manager' before they become a top 4 manager?

      IMHO it isn't so much about the manager, as the resources the club has. Fine AVB *kept* Porto where they had been accustomed to being, so he didn't make a complete hash of it in Portugal.
      But until he had a chance with a club who had the resource in the EPL to achieve and sustain 4th, then how can you tell?

      It's odd how the clubs are called the big four - given that those clubs have (apart from two) had multiple managers.
      and now Citeh
      and maybe us
      had or now have the resource to sustain a top 4 challenge.

      So realistically, until a manager gets to manage one of those clubs, how do you know if they're top 4 material?

      Levy decided that 'arry wasn't the way, and decided on AVB - is he any worse a choice than say Moyes or O'Neill or Benitez or..... I would say that you can't tell. No way to predict.

      If you look back (I think I started a thread) that showed how the EPL has become dominated by certain clubs over the past 20 years or so. Before that, certain clubs had better runs - true, but the top of the table positions seemed to be more conducive to change season on season. The change to domination seemed to be coincident with the EPL and CL - the obvious inference is that the money, and hence better players, is likely to be the key - not so much the manager. (AVB could be seen as a Portuguese equivalent case in point there).

    • I have ignored your posts John and I have never sought them or look forward to them as you could start an argument in a phone box on your own. This will obviously not stop you posting your hypocritical, muddled and nonsensical thoughts on anything I say but I thought I should just point out that I will not respond.

    • Is your responding to me to tell me that you've been ignoring me and that you won't respond a bit like a page in a book that has:
      'This page intentionally left blank'
      printed on it?

      Sfer, Ignore away. I raised a general point. I won't feel offended if you deign not to respond (or reply to tell me that you definitely won't respond)

      So after that: The question is:

      What does then make a top 4 manager, and how can you spot one?

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