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  • Anyone But United Anyone But United Feb 11, 2008 18:26 Flag

    The race for 4th - LFC v EFC

    At risk of having the p*ss seriously taken out of me come end of the season, I'm gonna offer some predictions here.

    No disrespect to the other teams still in the hunt for 4th, but I'm gonna focus on Everton - they currently occupy that spot and I think are the biggest threat to taking it from us. Sad I know.

    Both clubs can finish on a maximum of 83 points. So who is likely to drop the most? I have to admit that, with FA Cup and CL distractions likely to influence Rafa, we really are up against it.

    I've listed below the remaining fixtures for both clubs - and the points I think will be picked up. LFC on the left, EFC on the right.

    LFC fixtures - EFC Fixtures

    West Ham (H) 3 - 0 (game in hand)
    Middlesboro (H) 3 - 1 Man City (A)
    Bolton (A) 3 - 3 Portsmouth (H)
    Newcastle (H) 3 - 3 Sunderland (A)
    Reading (H) 3 - 3 Fulham (A)
    Mancs (A) 0 - 3 West Ham (H)
    Everton (H) 3 - 0 Liverpool (A)
    Arsenal (A) 1 - 3 Derby (H)
    Blackburn (H) 1 - 3 Birmingham (A)
    Fulham (A) 3 - 1 Chelsea (H)
    Birmingham (A) 3 - 1 Villa (H)
    Man City (H) 3 - 0 Arsenal (A)
    Spurs (A) 1 - 3 Newcastle (H)

    FINISH 74 - 71

    And I think I'm being optimistic here, because
    - next 5 wins on the trot, with two CL ties in the mix - yes 4 games at home, but have we the confidence to go and win games?
    - a win at home against Everton, should that turn out into a draw and the other results pan out as predicted, it'll be 72 a piece then goals will come into it.

    I really think our involvement in the cups will hamper our push for 4th, especially if we get past Inter. I think EFC are in pole position.

    I want to be proven wrong, and if anyone wants to resurrect this thread in 3 months time and have a good old laugh at me - be my guest.

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    • Whatever happens and I sincerely hope my Everton come thru and finish 4th something must be remembered. I have reminded my LFC mates that Liverpool have spent a lot more money on players over the last five or six years and that has been pooh pooed but the fact is, over the last 5 years Everton have spent a net 29m after income from player sales and Liverpool have spent a net of around 110m.
      From the base that Moyes more or less started from say from his first full season where survival was considered a success we are now pushing Liverpool all the way this season.
      I put it to LFC fans who are going to have a proper discussion about it this that we have the manager who seems to be getting more from his squad considering the money spent and Everton are under no pressure to finish 4th which I think Liverpool are as a result of net spend on players.The longer the fight goes on at the top end of the table (It feels good for me to be saying that about Everton!) I think we will qualify for Europe no matter if we finish 4th or not. There is no pressure for the blues to do that (4th) but it would be a wonderful bonus

    • So far so good ! ! ! ! ! And I look like a proper berk - so flippin what?

      If you don't mind my paraphrasing one of my previous comments, quote:

      "And I think I'm being optimistic here, because
      - next 5 wins on the trot, with two CL ties in the mix - yes 4 games at home, but have we the confidence to go and win games?"

      I think the team have answered that particular call in the last 5 weeks - YES! The confidence is finally coming back into the team. The Reading result was big, after an early set back they kept it together and cameb back and won it. Those are the kind of results we've been really struggling to pull off this season.

      Next up - the Mancs, who have a mid-week game to contend with, while we (finally) get a whole week to prepare for a game. The real tests lie ahead over the next 3 weeks, and I think finally we have the best possible platform from which to tackle them.

      I smell Manc blood at OT !!! Prove me wrong boys, PLEEEASE turn my 0 pts prediction from 5 weeks ago into a 3......then I'll laugh at meself even harder than the rest of you! Like I give a sh*t.


      • 2 Replies to Anyone But United
      • The race is looking good for us, I think you need to an updated one though abu. I think meeting Arsenal 5 times in a week, is going to take alot out of us. Maybe rafa will have to rotate after then :) I think we can write off anyone but Everton in the battle now though and they looked tired the other day.

      • Defintly looking for a result at OT. Feel good that we can at least get a point, if not nick it this time round. MU did not look good against Derby, although you've got to assume that they did not take the fixture seriosly, while PJ really prepared his lads well. I'm sure SAF will not make the same mistake against us, but think right now we are the form team.

        Fulham also did us a huge favor by denying Everton points, which has given us some breathing room. Just hope that now the pressure may have been lightened slightly, we don't loose the urgency with which we've been playing lately. Seems to me we play at our best when are backs are truely against the wall. More the pressure, the better the performance.

        The next 5 games will most likely define our season. The 3 league games could put us where I'd hoped we'd be, no more than 6 points off the pace by Mid April, and depending on how other results go, maybe even knocking on the door of 3rd place.

    • What this misses is Liverpool's unpredictability. You'll be right on some and wrong on others and neither you nor I nor anyone else can tell which.

      But what should give you pause for thought is that you've predicted 30 points from 13 games where so far you only have 44 points from 25 games. What gives the confidence that you're going to improve hugely?


    • Thought I'd bump this one, and point out that the lads have surpassed my expectations in the last 3 months (and then some!).

      4th is already secured with 2 games to go. And with two wins in our last two games we are on track to finish on 76 points. That would be 32 points taken from 39, considered laughable by some at the time considering we had only taken 44 from 75 up to this point!

      It's another strong finish. Once again we find ourselves bemoaning silly dropped points early on in the season. We just need to put that right, and we're in biz.

      Well done to the lads. Now go and kick on tomorrow night.....

      • 1 Reply to Anyone But United
      • 32 from 39 possible, wow! I have not looked at it that way, but think its worth pondering for a bit.

        There maybe many reasons why we seem to be slow out of the gates, but if we can cure that problem, we would be up there challenging, like we all want. We got some early injuries this year (Torres, Gerrard, Alonso, Agger) which may have been a factor, and there is not much we can do about that. But we also had a lot of unsettlement in the club which may have been one factor, along with a slew of new players that when you consider bedding in process, may also have been a factor.

        While we may need to upgrade in areas, and I'd expect some new faces, I really hope its not wholesale changes in the summer. If we can have a settled club, along with a settled squad, maybe we can fulfill the promise we all crave.

    • Abu, can't really disagree with your predictions, as thy look mainly realistic. Hope we can pick up at least a point at OT, but think its alos quite possible for us to loose silly points at home against what should be lesser opponents.

      Not sure I agree that CL and FA cup actually handicap us. Yes if Rafa over rotates to keep the squad fresh for cup games its going to hurt, but don't see a lot of resting rotation being need now we get to the tail end here.

      My biggest worry is our lack of confidence, which is causing a good sqaud to perform below its potential. If we are getting the results in the cup, think it will translate into more confidence that will help us in the league. Biggest if's in my mind, are can Torres stay healthy to provide some goals, and or can someone else please put it in the back of the neck. Think its doubtull many teams can beat us if we play to our potential, but if we don't score we don't win. Simple as that.

    • For an independant forecast this is a good and normally accurate enough.
      Look at the predicted final table section, only 1 point in it!

    • The race for 4th will be decided in this patch of games me thinks

      Mancs (A) 0 - 3 West Ham (H)
      Everton (H) 3 - 0 Liverpool (A)
      Arsenal (A) 1 - 3 Derby (H)
      Blackburn (H) 1 - 3 Birmingham (A)

      The Mancs at their place, that might be one of those games I'm hiding behind the sofa. Everton home on the back of the Manc game, our confidence if it's a bad result could be shot but it's a derby so the form book goes out the the windy. Going to Arsenal looking at a draw, hhmmmmm that would be a good result and finally Blackburn can play some pretty good stuff when they apply themselves. If you consider Evertons games during that period, apart from the derby with us I think that's a pretty good assessment of points they are likely to pick up. Seriously 4th spot is looking a mighty hard target.

    • It looks like we've pretty much grabbed 4th place.. unless we start getting sloppy towards the end of the season..

    • Who are you to call someone illiterate,you deranged paedo (we are keeping an eye on you).

    • It's tight between Aston Villa and Everton and ourselves.. any of those 3 teams can secure 4th spot.. I hope it's us but on current form I can't be certain of it !!!

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