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  • Anyone But United Anyone But United Feb 11, 2008 18:26 Flag

    The race for 4th - LFC v EFC

    At risk of having the p*ss seriously taken out of me come end of the season, I'm gonna offer some predictions here.

    No disrespect to the other teams still in the hunt for 4th, but I'm gonna focus on Everton - they currently occupy that spot and I think are the biggest threat to taking it from us. Sad I know.

    Both clubs can finish on a maximum of 83 points. So who is likely to drop the most? I have to admit that, with FA Cup and CL distractions likely to influence Rafa, we really are up against it.

    I've listed below the remaining fixtures for both clubs - and the points I think will be picked up. LFC on the left, EFC on the right.

    LFC fixtures - EFC Fixtures

    West Ham (H) 3 - 0 (game in hand)
    Middlesboro (H) 3 - 1 Man City (A)
    Bolton (A) 3 - 3 Portsmouth (H)
    Newcastle (H) 3 - 3 Sunderland (A)
    Reading (H) 3 - 3 Fulham (A)
    Mancs (A) 0 - 3 West Ham (H)
    Everton (H) 3 - 0 Liverpool (A)
    Arsenal (A) 1 - 3 Derby (H)
    Blackburn (H) 1 - 3 Birmingham (A)
    Fulham (A) 3 - 1 Chelsea (H)
    Birmingham (A) 3 - 1 Villa (H)
    Man City (H) 3 - 0 Arsenal (A)
    Spurs (A) 1 - 3 Newcastle (H)

    FINISH 74 - 71

    And I think I'm being optimistic here, because
    - next 5 wins on the trot, with two CL ties in the mix - yes 4 games at home, but have we the confidence to go and win games?
    - a win at home against Everton, should that turn out into a draw and the other results pan out as predicted, it'll be 72 a piece then goals will come into it.

    I really think our involvement in the cups will hamper our push for 4th, especially if we get past Inter. I think EFC are in pole position.

    I want to be proven wrong, and if anyone wants to resurrect this thread in 3 months time and have a good old laugh at me - be my guest.

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    • LFC Blackburn at home should and will be 3 points not a draw,

      So that should then be 77 - 71 six points clear. all the other results fairly spot on.

      And your also forgetting EFC role in the UEFA cup, thats also gonna be a distraction on their behalf.

      Should we get past Inter (mixed feelings regarding this) then surely the confidence boost that will give will do us no harm what so ever.

    • For an independant forecast this is a good and normally accurate enough.
      Look at the predicted final table section, only 1 point in it!

    • The race for 4th will be decided in this patch of games me thinks

      Mancs (A) 0 - 3 West Ham (H)
      Everton (H) 3 - 0 Liverpool (A)
      Arsenal (A) 1 - 3 Derby (H)
      Blackburn (H) 1 - 3 Birmingham (A)

      The Mancs at their place, that might be one of those games I'm hiding behind the sofa. Everton home on the back of the Manc game, our confidence if it's a bad result could be shot but it's a derby so the form book goes out the the windy. Going to Arsenal looking at a draw, hhmmmmm that would be a good result and finally Blackburn can play some pretty good stuff when they apply themselves. If you consider Evertons games during that period, apart from the derby with us I think that's a pretty good assessment of points they are likely to pick up. Seriously 4th spot is looking a mighty hard target.

    • Abu, can't really disagree with your predictions, as thy look mainly realistic. Hope we can pick up at least a point at OT, but think its alos quite possible for us to loose silly points at home against what should be lesser opponents.

      Not sure I agree that CL and FA cup actually handicap us. Yes if Rafa over rotates to keep the squad fresh for cup games its going to hurt, but don't see a lot of resting rotation being need now we get to the tail end here.

      My biggest worry is our lack of confidence, which is causing a good sqaud to perform below its potential. If we are getting the results in the cup, think it will translate into more confidence that will help us in the league. Biggest if's in my mind, are can Torres stay healthy to provide some goals, and or can someone else please put it in the back of the neck. Think its doubtull many teams can beat us if we play to our potential, but if we don't score we don't win. Simple as that.

    • What this misses is Liverpool's unpredictability. You'll be right on some and wrong on others and neither you nor I nor anyone else can tell which.

      But what should give you pause for thought is that you've predicted 30 points from 13 games where so far you only have 44 points from 25 games. What gives the confidence that you're going to improve hugely?


    • We deserve to be in the mix for 4th slot too...we've played decent honest football, kept our gobshytes shut, scrambled a few games and lost when we've deserved to, but we've bounced back..


      Since when has a scouser palyed decent ((hahahah) Honest (hahahahahahahahahahaha) football?

      You complete and utter neanderthol!!!

      You are the scum of the gutters uuughghghggh

      eh eh eh eh

    • Actually thought you'd say getting 4th, as that would put you above LFC and give you some bragging rights, but think you've got a realistic outlook. Yes I think you'll be in the mix for 4th. In fact I'd say Villa, Everton, and LFC have a realistic shot at it as of right now, and will come down to who can be more consistent going into the stretch.

      Not that I'm wishing luck on anything blue, but do think you deserve to pick up something from this season, and the UEFA cup would be fitting, and I'd aactually prefer that to you taking 4th spot.

      Your right, even if you pushed into 4th spot, it would be a very long shot to win CL next year. Finances aside, there is an experience gap that you need to make up. Rafa may not have the league worked out yet, but he sure knows how to play in Europe.

      I disagree with you on EPL not being realistic. I never thought we'd actaully win this year, although I hoped for it. I thought however we'd be within 9 points of the leader, which is now looking like a pipe dream. But it is doable, but takes both good management, and money. You'd better figure out that last one, as besides the current leaders who have deeper pockets, you have Spurs and Villa who look to maybe having a bit of both also.

    • Keep an eye out for Man City. In terms of their run in their key games are:-

      Home to Everton (win - 3 points)
      Home to Spurs (win - 3 points)
      Away to Chelsea (loose)
      Away to ourselves (loose)

      After that if they keep the momentum of last weekend going I'd expect that they'll pick up maximum points elsewhere, leaving them with 74 points. Allow for a slip up, 71 points.

      I reckon 72points at a minimum for 4th.

      Down to the wire, can't afford any more slip ups.

    • It's tight between Aston Villa and Everton and ourselves.. any of those 3 teams can secure 4th spot.. I hope it's us but on current form I can't be certain of it !!!

    • Was really impressed with Moyes over his handling of the Yak.

      Good Manager.

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