1000 Guineas preview and tip: Remarquee good value for a frame finish

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3.40 Newmarket 1m (Rowley) Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1)

The fillies' Guineas is the second of the season's five Classics and is the first aimed solely at female three-year-old horses (the other is the Oaks which is run at the Derby meeting at Epsom)

This renewal is run over a one-mile track, just like the male equivalent, the 2000 Guineas, which is held on the Saturday of Newmarket's first big weekend. Last year saw James Doyle clinch a Guineas double when steering 16/1 shot Cachet to a narrow victory by a neck, just a day after being on board 2000 Guineas winner Coroebus.

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As usual I have used a number of trends to narrow the field down to a few runners and then further analysis to provide a selection.

  • 19/21 - Placed in the top three last time out

  • 16/21 - Had won 2 or 3 times before

  • 16/21 - Had won a Group race before

  • 15/21 - Drawn between 2-13 (inclusive)

  • 14/21 - Yet to win a race over a mile (or further)

  • 13/21 - Winning distance - two lengths or less

  • 13/21 - Came from outside the top three in the betting

  • 12/21 - Won their previous race

  • 12/21 - Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before

  • 11/21 - Returned a double-digit price

  • 10/21 - Won on their seasonal reappearance

  • 10/21 - Ran at Newmarket last time out

  • 9/21 - Favourites unplaced

  • 9/21 - Irish-trained winners

  • 8/21 - Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before

  • 6/21 - Drawn in stalls 7 or 8

  • 6/21 - Previous Group One winners

The trends above left a shortlist of only four runners: Tahiyra, Mammas Girl, Lezoo and Remarquee.

Suggested bet: Remarquee each-way in the 15:40 at Newmarket (1000 Guineas)

Tahiyra was very impressive when winning the Moyglare Stakes, beating Mediate in good style and on official ratings is the best horse in the race. I am concerned about her wide draw in stall 15, but she may well have the class to win this, although 5/2 looks a skinny price bearing in mind her draw. Mammas Girl was impressive when winning here on her seasonal debut, remaining unbeaten like Tahiyra and she should improve again. However, she has the widest draw of all, so unless earlier races show that high is the place to be it is best to focus on those drawn lower. Lezoo is more exposed than many of these fillies having had five runs, but she was impressive last time when winning the Cheveley Park Stakes over this course back in September. She has the troublesome draw in one and that could lead to traffic issues unless she breaks quickly. Her run style has been held-up/mid-division, so she would need to hope for some gaps to appear in the latter stages. Remarquee, like Tahiyra and Mammas Girl, has won both previous outings and her trainer, Ralph Beckett, has a good record with fillies in Classics and I would expect her to improve again from her win at Newbury on her seasonal debut. She does have a lot of improvement to make up on the three horses above, but I expect her to go close based on the trends. She is worth a small each-way play, and it could be worth looking for any bookmakers offering an additional place.

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