2000 Guineas preview and tip: Trends point to Auguste Rodin, but Chaldean best value

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4.40 Newmarket 1m (Rowley) Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1)

The first of the Classics for the three-year-old generation of 2023 sees the colts given first chance to take centre stage as they compete for the 2000 Guineas over a mile at the Headquarters of British Racing, Newmarket.

Last year's winner was the Charlie Appleby-trained Coreobus (5/1), who edged out the favourite Native Trail and they team up again with Noble Style, who is currently at a less fancied double-digit price. All eyes will be on Frankie Dettori as he begins the countdown of his final five Classic appearances on board Andrew Balding's Chaldean, and he is sure to be well supported among race-goers and bettors alike.

I have used the trends below to narrow down the field to a few runners and will then use further analysis to find a selection for the 2000 Guineas.

  • 21/21 - Finished in the top three last time out

  • 19/21 - Had won over at least seven furlongs

  • 19/21 - Had won a Group race before

  • 19/21 - Had won between 2-5 times before

  • 17/21 - Drawn in stall 12 or lower

  • 17/21 - Won last time out

  • 16/21 - Winning distance - less than two lengths

  • 15/21 - Having their first run of the season

  • 14/21 - Had just two or three career wins

  • 13/21 - Came from the top three in the betting

  • 13/21 - Placed favourite

  • 12/21 - Won by an Irish-based yard

  • 12/21 - Irish bred

  • 9/21 - Won by trainer Aidan O'Brien (10 wins in total)

  • 9/21 - Had won over a mile before

  • 8/21 - Drawn in stalls 1 or 3

  • 6/21 - Winning favourites

  • 6/21 - Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before

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In addition to the trends listed above, winners usually have an official rating of over 110 and have lost no more than once in their careers to date. By using these two markers and the trends above this leaves a shortlist of only three runners Auguste Rodin, Chaldean and Noble Style.Suggested bet: Chaldean each-way in the 16:40 at Newmarket

Noble Style will go awfully close if he stays, but as you can see above those horses which have not attempted and won at seven furlongs or further have a poor record in the 2000 Guineas. On breeding he should get a mile and if he does, he is a noticeably big price; however, he may need more maturing to get the trip. I presume William Buick had the choice of which Godolphin runner to ride here and he has gone for Silver Knott. Chaldean unseated coming out of the gate on his seasonal debut and that is why I still included him here, plus he has a course win at Group 1 level and has the highest official rating in the field. From a betting point of view, I do think he presents the best value, and you could play each way. If I were having a bet in the race this would be my play. Auguste Rodin meets all the key trends and the only negative I can see is his draw in stall twelve, but that fear could be removed by watching how the other races run prior to the Guineas over the next two days. I have rarely heard Aidan O'Brien be more effusive about a horse in his charge and bear in mind he has won this race nine times in the last twenty-one years. O'Brien stated "He looks to have all the right things" after he won the Group 1 Futurity Stakes at Doncaster over this trip. Despite his near perfect record, the trainer and jockey believe there is more improvement to come. On trends Auguste Rodin is the selection, with the only downside being his unappealing 6/4 price, while Chaldean offers the best each-way value to keep Dettori fans happy.

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