The 2022-23 Premier League season is about to enter the three most critical months of the season – but can any clubs feel lucky or hard done by?

Manchester City and Arsenal are the two title favourites, but Manchester United have pulled themselves into contention after a string of great results since Christmas.

Meanwhile, sides like Chelsea and Liverpool have had their struggles this season in terms of results, but what about the underlying performances?

The Expected Goals (xG) metric uses a complex algorithm to determine the quality of chances that each side has created and conceded this season, giving us a useful tool to measure how good their performances have actually been, regardless of the scorelines.

With data from Understat, here are the tables in terms of Expected Goals so far this season.

Expected Goals (xG)

1. Manchester City – 57.58
2. Arsenal – 47.91
3. Liverpool – 46.86
4. Manchester United – 42.68
5. Newcastle United – 41.87
6. Brighton – 41.83
7. Tottenham – 37.97
8. Brentford – 35.94
9. Fulham – 33.16
10. West Ham United – 32.03
11. Leeds United – 31.29
12. Chelsea – 31.16
13. Aston Villa – 28.28
14. Leicester City – 26.36
15. Everton – 25.73
16. Crystal Palace – 24.26
17. Nottingham Forest – 24.04
18. Southampton – 23.90
19. Wolves – 25.30
20. Bournemouth – 22.11

As expected, City and Arsenal haven’t been lucky this season – their attacks really are just that efficient. Manchester United are comfortably in the top four in terms of the quality of the chances they create, while Brighton and Newcastle will also be pleased.

Chelsea and Liverpool fans will be nodding sagely at the numbers that indicate their team has much to improve on.

At the other end of the table, you see relegation battlers Southampton, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth struggle quite dramatically in terms of fashioning chances, while West Ham aren’t doing too shabbily in that regard – their underwhelming season has its origins in their failure to take such chances.

Expected Goals Against (xGA)

1. Manchester City – 23.57
2. Arsenal – 23.57
3. Newcastle United – 25.56
4. Brighton – 26.87
5. West Ham United – 27.19
6. Manchester United – 28.16
7. Brentford – 30.54
8. Tottenham – 30.61
9. Chelsea – 30.98
10. Wolves – 34.42
11. Southampton – 34.54
12. Crystal Palace – 37.17
13. Leicester City – 37.48
14. Liverpool – 37.77
15. Leeds United – 37.90
16. Aston Villa – 39.89
17. Everton – 40.60
18. Nottingham Forest – 42.15
19. Bournemouth – 42.92
20. Fulham – 46.35

Reigning champions City are level with the main challengers for their crown, as Arsenal’s impressive season is borne out with their defensive numbers.

Elsewhere, Newcastle are quite considerably overperforming in terms of their actual goals conceded, while Tottenham and Chelsea allow their opposition more chances than their expensive rearguards would suggest.

Once again, this chart doesn’t make pretty reading for Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest – and Liverpool.

Expected Points (xPTS)

1. Manchester City – 55.20
2. Arsenal – 48.70
3. Manchester United – 43.04
4. Newcastle United – 41.17
5. Brighton – 40.71
6. Tottenham – 39.51
7. Liverpool – 36.55
8. Brentford – 36.49
9. West Ham United – 35.24
10. Chelsea – 33.08
11. Leeds United – 30.31
12. Aston Villa – 29.31
13. Fulham – 27.99
14. Leicester City – 25.37
15. Southampton – 25.26
16. Wolves – 25.17
17. Crystal Palace – 24.46
18. Everton – 23.49
19. Nottingham Forest – 22.09
20. Bournemouth – 19.75

Expected Points (xPTS) uses the for and against xG on a game-by-game basis to determine how many points a side should have taken.

Once again, City and Arsenal are comfortably in front in that regard, with Brighton and Newcastle enjoying excellent seasons.

West Ham, mired in an unexpected relegation battle, will weep at their side’s comfortable mid-table position while Chelsea supporters won’t raise an eyebrow at numbers that underline their club’s miserable campaign to date.

Forest and Bournemouth are in the bottom two – Forest’s numbers suggest they’re doing very well to be mid-table in the current Premier League table – while Sean Dyche has his work cut out to revive Everton.

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