2023 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Drama Series


We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 15 to June 26, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 17 and ends the night of August 28. Currently in limbo, the 75th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards were set to take place on Monday, September 18, and air live on FOX at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

See our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards here.

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The State of the Race

Post-Emmy nominations there is hardly anyone above the line that is either super willing or able to do a ton of campaigning in lieu of the WGA and SAG strikes. Yes, directors are the most free to speak to press and attend events since the DGA signed a new deal with the AMPTP, but television is not a director’s medium in the same way film is.

If there is a silver lining to a quieter TV awards season, it is that 2023 Emmy campaigns have become really focused on craft. It does cast a wider net of what series voters should watch, because the below the line voters are not so quick to constantly nominate the same shows over and over again, but in terms of the Outstanding Drama Series category, frontrunner “Succession” has garnered enough recognition on that end to still seem like this year’s eventual winner. It being its final season too is almost like a multiplier on the amount of votes it will get.

That said, if consideration of the craft nominations a show has received now factors into its ability to win this Emmy even more so, then there is hope for quite a few of the remaining nominees. Fellow HBO series “The White Lotus,” “The Last of Us,” and “House of the Dragon” all pack a wallop in the below the line categories, with the latter receiving only one Primetime Emmy nomination, but still getting into eight categories that will be presented at the Creative Arts Emmys. However, these are shows proven to be super popular already, since the cable network shares ratings. Although “Andor” is a Disney+ series that is part of the “Star Wars” franchise, part of its narrative is being seen as more a hidden gem than a breakout hit. If there is a series TV Academy members are catching up on before they cast their votes, it is probably “Andor.”

Unfortunately, even though “The Crown” is technically a reigning champ, having won Netflix its first Outstanding Drama Series Emmy in 2021 for the previous season, it just did not seem like the type of show voters were looking for this time. “Better Call Saul” had trouble as well earning all the craft nominations it had gotten in its previous seasons, but it is also just hard in general to keep the recognition going when a show is five seasons or more. Hence why “Succession” may have wanted to quit while it was ahead.

Power Rankings:

  1. “Succession” (HBO)

  2. “The White Lotus” (HBO)

  3. “The Last of Us” (HBO)

  4. “Andor” (Disney+)

  5. “The Crown” (Netflix)

  6. “House of the Dragon” (HBO)

  7. “Better Call Saul” (AMC)

  8. “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)

Will Win: “Succession”
Could Win: “The White Lotus”
Should Win: “Succession”

More Drama Category Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 75th Emmy Awards click here.

Last Year’s Winner: “Succession”
Still Eligible: Yes.
Hot Streak: Although “Succession” has won the category the past two seasons it’s been eligible, both “The Crown,” which won the category during the HBO drama’s year off, and “The White Lotus,” a new category entry that won Best Limited Series last year, stand in its way of a three-peat.
Notable Ineligible Series: “Severance” (Season 2 was not eligible); “Squid Game” (Season 2 was not eligible); “Bridgerton” (Season 3 was not eligible); “Euphoria” (Season 3 was not eligible); “The Morning Show” (Season 3 was not eligible); “Stranger Things” (Season 5 was not eligible); “Killing Eve” (ended); “Ozark” (ended); “This is Us” (ended)

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