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2023 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie

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We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 15 to June 26, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. Afterward, final voting commences August 17 and ends the night of August 28. The 75th annual Primetime Emmy Awards will now take place Monday, January 15, live on Fox at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

See our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards here.

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The State of the Race

Randomly, Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie was the category awards strategists focused the most on cramming in interviews for, right before the SAG strike started. Even stars that did not end up nominated, like “Reality” star Sydney Sweeney, still had big interviews come out deep into Emmys season, that would have functioned as a way to keep their name out there as TV Academy members got ready for final voting.

Frontrunner Jessica Chastain, who has been campaigning for “George and Tammy” hard the entire year, even through her Tony-nominated “A Doll’s House” Broadway run, was proactive about finding ways to promote the Showtime limited series in a way that was still in line with strike rules. For example, her “WTF with Marc Maron” interview did not go live until two months after it had been conducted, pegged for right before Emmys voting commenced.

There will definitely be some with cynical reads about pursuing an award so hard, and given her previous work, it would have been easy anyway for voters to imagine Chastain delivers an Emmy-worthy performance in “George and Tammy,” even if they did not see the full thing. But through another lens, it is nice to see a star fight so hard for a project she had been working on for a decade, and also executive produced. Plus, all those panels she made time for, even flying in from New York every weekend to do, really featured her highlighting the below the line talent that worked on the show as well. All her effort on and off screen likely will (and probably should) work out in her favor.

That said, “Daisy Jones and the Six,” “Beef,” and “Fleishman Is in Trouble” have Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series nominations, while Chastain’s show does not. If there are any nominees who are likely to come from behind and win the Emmy come January, it would most likely be one of the stars of those three shows, but the race is a bit too close to call.

Power Rankings:

  1. Jessica Chastain, “George and Tammy” (Showtime)

  2. Riley Keough, “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)

  3. Ali Wong, “Beef” (Netflix)

  4. Lizzy Caplan, “Fleishman Is in Trouble” (FX)

  5. Dominique Fishback, “Swarm” (Prime Video)

  6. Kathryn Hahn, “Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu)

Will Win: Jessica Chastain, “George and Tammy”
Could Win: Riley Keough, “Daisy Jones and the Six”
Should Win: Dominique Fishback, “Swarm”

More Limited Series and TV Movie Category Predictions:
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Outstanding TV Movie
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie

To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 75th Emmy Awards click here.

Last Year’s Winner: Amanda Seyfried, “The Dropout”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Last year was Hulu’s first win in the category. Should “Tiny Beautiful Things” actress Kathryn Hahn win, it would continue the streak, and solidify the streaming service as a prime destination for Limited Series projects.
Notable Ineligible Series: Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus: Sicily” (submitted as a Drama Series); Kate Mara, “Class of ’09” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Juno Temple, “Fargo” (Season 5 was not eligible).

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