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Manchester City's clash with Tottenham is moneyball meets football at the Etihad

Pep Guardiola takes on Mauricio Pochettino
Pep Guardiola takes on Mauricio Pochettino

Football can be a numbers game. Manchester City’s start to the season has been full of them. There are a Premier League record 15 successive wins. There were club records of 20 consecutive wins and 28 games unbeaten. There is an 11-point advantage at the top of the Premier League. They are extraordinary figures.

There could be other facts to excite the statisticians on Saturday. When City host Tottenham, it could be a starting 11 that cost around £400 million versus one acquired for under £100 million. If City are looking in a different league from their rivals, Spurs are entitled to argue that financially they are in different divisions.

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Yet last season they finished ahead of City, took four points off them and were the first team to beat them in Pep Guardiola’s reign. Even this season, there have been points – particularly the 4-1 demolition of Liverpool and the 3-1 destruction of Real Madrid – when they have looked the second best side in England. There is a case to be made that, while Spurs probably do not have the strength in depth of some of their wealthier peers, their starting 11 is bettered only by City’s.

But theirs has been a cut-price brand of excellence, aided by a fine youth system, a keen eye for bargains and a manager, in Mauricio Pochettino, with a capacity to improve his players. Each is apparent in any analysis of why Spurs’ side came for a comparative pittance.

Price is right: Manchester City’s Eliaquim Mangala, Kyle Walker and Kevin de Bruyne cost about £150 million between them
Price is right: Manchester City’s Eliaquim Mangala, Kyle Walker and Kevin de Bruyne cost about £150 million between them

Compare position for position and it is apparent how Spurs have over-performed. It is possible that every Tottenham player will be cheaper than his City counterpart. Their centre forward will be the youth-team graduate Harry Kane. City’s may be their record scorer Sergio Aguero, who has more than repaid his transfer fee but still cost £38 million. Pochettino’s deepest midfielder could be Harry Winks, another who came through the academy.

Pep Guardiola’s is likely to be the £30 million addition Fernandinho. In attacking midfield, Tottenham have the £5 million man Dele Alli, City the £54.5 million Kevin de Bruyne. At right-back, Pochettino should pick Kieran Trippier, a product of City’s youth system and who cost £3.5 million from Burnley. Guardiola is certain to select Kyle Walker, bought from Tottenham for a fee rising to £54 million.

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And Trippier displaced Walker from the Spurs side at the end of last season. They boast different advantages, with Walker more of an athlete and Trippier a better crosser, but there is at least a debate to be had as to who is better.

One of their own: Harry Kane came through Tottenham’s youth system and did not cost them a penny in transfer fees.
One of their own: Harry Kane came through Tottenham’s youth system and did not cost them a penny in transfer fees.

Inside either, Toby Alderweireld’s hamstring injury deprives onlookers of a comparison between him and Nicolas Otamendi. City considered signing the Belgian, then impressing on loan at Southampton, in 2015. Instead, Tottenham got him for £12 million while City signed the £31.5 million Argentinian. Otamendi spent his first two seasons in England looking erratic; Alderweireld was arguably the outstanding centre-back in the division in that time as Spurs conceded 19 fewer goals than City. Instead, the £4 million purchase Eric Dier could be the direct equivalent of Otamendi, whose improvement is both welcome and over-hyped.

Alderweireld indicates how it is possible to do better while spending less. It has been the basis of Spurs’ success. It is also reflected within their squad. It is worth noting that some of Spurs’ bigger buys, like the £24 million signing Serge Aurier, the £30 million arrival Moussa Sissoko and the £30 million winger Erik Lamela, could be substitutes.

It is certainly possible to construct a costlier Tottenham team, especially if the £42 million defender Davinson Sanchez were not suspended; equally, there would be a more expensive City one, too, if Benjamin Mendy were fit to replace Fabian Delph at left-back or if Bernardo Silva came in for his namesake David in midfield. Admittedly the price of the City team goes up every time Eliaquim Mangala stands in for the bargain Vincent Kompany, but it would be higher still if John Stones were fit.

Stones belongs in the category of City players who seem proof they are not merely buying success. He, Otamendi, Delph, Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane have all taken their game to another level this season under Guardiola. Aguero, De Bruyne, Fernandinho, Gabriel Jesus, David Silva and Ederson are among those who would rank as fine signings in any circumstance. City have wasted plenty of money in the Sheikh Mansour era, but much of their vast funds has been spent astutely. There are bargains even among the big fees.

But it is remarkable that Tottenham have proved able to compete. City are not a one-off: Manchester United could also name a £400 million team, Chelsea a £300 million side. It also poses questions if a £100 million team and a club with a net transfer-market profit in the last five years can continue to compete. Should they sell another cheap arrival – whether Kane, Alli, Dier, Danny Rose or Christian Eriksen – and any replacement would be both far more expensive and funded by the sale so, in that sense, their methodology could be sustainable, although it would be hard to find anyone of similar quality, perhaps leading to suggestions they have spent more to get worse. If they do not spend, however, Walker may not be alone in beating a path to the exit and it gets harder to bridge the financial gulf with footballing brilliance.