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Arsenal title fight, Chelsea improvement, Postecoglou sacked - Premier League season simulated

Ange Postecoglou, Mikel Arteta, and Enzo Maresca
-Credit: (Image: Getty Images 2024)


We're almost a third of the way through the Premier League season, with Chelsea, Arsenal, and Tottenham all having mixed starts to the 2024/25 campaign.

After starting extremely well, Arsenal have failed to win any of their last four Premier League games, with the Gunners currently sitting in fourth place on 19 points. Joining them on 19 points but ahead on goal difference is Chelsea with Enzo Maresca enjoying life as the Blues' manager so far, while Spurs have had the worst start of the three, with the Lilywhites having already lost five league games this season, leaving them in 10th.

Despite the poor start from Ange Postecoglou's side, they are still very much in contention for a top-four spot, with the Premier League standings closer than ever. Just four points currently separate Chelsea in third from Manchester United in 13th, so lots can change in just two games.

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With the November international break now taking place, we will have to wait until November 23 for the next set of Premier League fixtures. But until then, we thought for some fun, we'd simulate the rest of the Premier League season to see what could happen over the next six months.

Rest of the 2024/25 Premier League season predicted

To set up this simulation, we used Football Manager 2024 to update every team in the Premier League with the latest results, injuries, suspensions and fixtures before simulating ahead to the end of the season to find out what could happen.

After the international break, Chelsea and Arsenal both got off to fantastic starts, with both teams winning their next six games in a row as they were neck-and-neck heading into Christmas. As for Spurs, well, the same couldn't be said. They won one, drew two, and lost three of their games before Christmas, leaving the Lilywhites 12th in the table as the pressure piled on Postecoglou.

After drawing three in a row against Brighton, Spurs, and Aston Villa in the new year, Arsenal dropped off from the title race once again, and like the Gunners, Chelsea did as well – drawing too many games proved to be the Achilles heel for both.

At the end of February, Spurs opted to sack Postecoglou as manager, with the Lilywhites 10th in the table with 11 games remaining. After his decent stint as Man Utd's interim head coach, Ruud van Nistelrooy was appointed on a short-term deal to try and turn things around. In the final 11 games, the Dutchman led Spurs to seven wins as they shot up the table in the final stages of the season.

Between the start of the simulation and the end of the season, Arsenal lost just one Premier League game – a 3-1 defeat at Anfield against Liverpool. Despite this, they didn't do enough to win the Premier League finishing nine points behind the winners.

The 2024/25 Premier League table from the Football Manager 2024 simulation
The 2024/25 Premier League table from the Football Manager 2024 simulation -Credit:Football Manager 24

21 wins, 14 draws and just three losses saw the Gunners end the season with 77 points, 12 fewer than last season as they missed out on the title once again. Chelsea managed to guarantee a spot in next season's Champions League as they ended the campaign in fifth place with 66 points, while Spurs clawed their way into the top six on the final day, with Van Nistelrooy leading the Lilywhites to a sixth-place finish on 60 points for another season in the Europa League.

Liverpool lifted the trophy with Arne Slot's side managing 26 wins in total, while Aston Villa finished in the top four for a second consecutive season. Awards-wise, Bukayo Saka managed the most assists in the Premier League season with 17 in total, while Cole Palmer was the third top scorer in the league, scoring 18 goals, only behind Mohamed Salah (21), and Erling Haaland (26).

Overall, FM24 predicts that Arsenal could fall short once again in their race for the Premier League title, while Chelsea could have the best season, with the Blues improving on last season to return to the Champions League. Spurs had the most dramatic season of them all with a manager change in February, but the Lilywhites managed to bounce back and claim a sixth-place finish.