Arsene Wenger can't win... even if Arsenal beat Chelsea and reach EFL Cup final

The competition that Arsene Wenger cares about the least has now taken on much greater significance in Arsenal’s season.

Wenger usually makes little secret of his approach to what is known these days as the Carabao Cup, having become synonymous with blooding the next generation while resting established stars for greater challenges ahead.

As recently as May, the 68-year-old said: “Apart from the League Cup, where we play always the younger players to give them a chance to develop, we take all the other competitions seriously.”

Wenger’s conviction in that belief was once without boundaries. It will be 11 years next month since the Gunners and Chelsea contested what looked initially on paper a decidedly one-sided League Cup Final, as Wenger named a starting line-up with an average age of less than 21 against the full force of a team who would eventually finish 15 points above them in the Premier League.

A 17-year-old Theo Walcott scored his first Arsenal goal before Didier Drogba hauled Chelsea over the line as Jose Mourinho, for the second time, used the competition to set a positive tone and galvanise his squad for the run-in.

Circumstances have modified Wenger’s attitude in recent years. Concerns over the mental block created by six years without a trophy, Wenger named a strong side for their 2011 semi-final at Ipswich, only to lose the first leg 1-0 before recovering in the return match, before doing so again in the Wembley showpiece against Birmingham. Yet Arsenal found a way to lose — Laurent Koscielny and Wojciech Szczesny’s calamitous 89th-minute mix-up handed Obafemi Martins the chance to earn a 2-1 win — and the policy continued two seasons later when reaching the quarter-finals at Bradford.

Somehow, Arsenal’s League One opponents defied a 65-place gap in the football pyramid to win through on penalties.

Wednesday's clash against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge offers Wenger another opportunity to help quash renewed criticism as he stands three games away from winning the only domestic trophy to elude him yet simultaneously the lowest on his list of priorities.

Sunday’s humiliating FA Cup third-round exit to Nottingham Forest has heightened the pressure on Wenger to the extent he is likely to name something approximating his strongest possible line-up.

He will ultimately be judged in the League and, to an extent, the Europa League, but the manner of Arsenal’s performance at the City Ground — and the emergence of pictures showing Alex Iwobi partying 36 hours before the game — demands rotation and also a response with the Gunners floundering in the League and now unable to defend the cup they have won in three of the past four seasons.

Those FA Cup successes have helped mask a multitude of sins. Can the Carabao Cup do the same?

Some supporters will remain unconvinced, especially if their League position continues to deteriorate, but Wenger would argue the achievement of beating Chelsea over two legs and then, most likely, Manchester City in the final should carry extra weight in any such assessment of his ongoing worth.

In one sense, Wenger is on a hiding to nothing. That trophy won’t be enough to appease his fiercest critics and defeat, even to the League champions, will only reinforce views the team are stagnating under his stewardship.

Antonio Conte’s tenure in London may be reaching its end if persistent rumours about the Italian’s unhappiness are to be believed. With City a dot on the horizon in League terms and the Champions League last 16 boasting the usual European heavyweights, this competition represents Conte’s most likely chance to silverware this term.

Last season, he treated it as an afterthought. He set aside another capital rivalry, an even fiercer one with West Ham, to field a weakened team that succumbed 2-1 at London Stadium. It would be Chelsea’s only defeat between October 1 and January 3.

“Last season we played in the final of the FA Cup and then in the Community Shield and for me it was great, big experiences,” said Conte on the eve of Wednesday's game. “To play another final in this season? Yes, I’d like to. For sure my players will try to do everything to reach this target.”

Conte has a score to settle with Wenger having been unable to sustain Chelsea’s dominance over the Gunners in recently times, losing both those Wembley dates he mentioned in addition to two Premier League draws this term and a victory apiece last season.

A row almost broke out between Wenger and Conte over the former’s admonishment of Eden Hazard’s role in earning Chelsea a penalty during last week’s 2-2 draw at Emirates Stadium. That was, of course, before Conte set his sights firmly on Mourinho, a target Wenger has shared on many occasions in recent years.

However, even Conte and Wenger would agree with Mourinho on one thing at the moment: the League Cup can help cure wider ills.