Aston Villa prepare for make-or-break month as they seek to avoid 'disastrous' relegation back to the Championship

An hour after Aston Villa’s return to the Premier League was secured at Wembley, co-owner Nassef Sawiris made a rare appearance in front of the television cameras.

As Villa's fans wildly celebrated promotion, Sawiris proudly insisted: "The sky is the limit. Our ambition was not just to get promoted but to do well in the Premier League.”

After a spend of £127 million on 12 new players, optimism was sky-high in the summer and even manager Dean Smith was talking of ambitions far higher than mere survival.

Seven months later, the mood has changed dramatically. Villa find themselves in the relegation zone after five defeats in six matches, with Smith under increasing pressure and a season in serious danger of unravelling.

Smith is “one of their own”, a Villa supporter since the 1970s, but that will not spare him from scrutiny over the alarming run of form. Many Villa fans are in a strange place: criticising Smith over tactical naivety and team selection, while desperate for him to succeed.

Relegation would be a disaster for many reasons. The financial ramifications of carrying an enormous wage bill back into the Championship would be immense, and Villa are certain to face scrutiny from the English Football League over whether spending under their former owner Dr Tony Xia broke their Profitability and Sustainability rules. Their talismanic captain Jack Grealish, John McGinn, Tyrone Mings and Tom Heaton, plus many others, will probably be sold.

It all piles pressure on Smith, who will know that a defeat to Burnley at Turf Moor on Wednesday, together with losses in the Carabao Cup semi-final to Leicester and the FA Cup to Fulham, could leave him vulnerable barely a month after signing a new contract. The manager said he hoped the 3-0 defeat to 10-man Watford last weekend would represent "a line in the sand for players to start stepping up” but he needs that response sooner rather than later.

Villa are now working hard on January targets, which was not the plan a month ago. The club's hierarchy did not intend to make any major signings but the landscape has now shifted, particularly after the loss of McGinn for three months with a broken ankle. Midfielders are a priority in the transfer window, ideally with experience of playing in the top flight.

In the summer, the strategy was clear: reduce the average age, reduce the average wage and increase the quality. All outfield players, preferably, had to be under the age of 25 and the recruitment drive was spearheaded by Jesús Vicente García, the club’s sporting director better known as Suso.

It was Suso who pushed for signings such as joint-record buy Wesley, Douglas Luiz and Matt Targett. Smith agreed on all of them, with his own picks of Mings and Tom Heaton also arriving in the summer.

Predictably, a gross spend of £127m led to accusations of “doing a Fulham”: promotion via the play-offs, followed by an expensive trolley-dash. In truth, Villa’s recruitment was cohesive and strategically planned, while every player was scouted extensively from last November onwards.

That spend effectively worked out at £10m a player – relatively cheap in the modern era – and such a drastic rebuild was needed after 12 summer departures. But recent results suggest it has not worked. A lack of experience runs through the whole spine of the team.

Much of the scrutiny has been on Wesley, the Brazilian striker signed from Club Brugge who has not scored in the league since Oct 5. It is understood the main sources of frustration within the coaching staff have been over the performances of the wingers, Anwar El Ghazi and Trezeguet.

But there are also huge concerns over the defence, and even former England captain John Terry, one of Smith's assistants, is under scrutiny now. No team has let in more league goals from headers (9) or corners (8) than Villa this season.

Smith is a fine coach, renowned for building teams at Walsall and Brentford, and will have learned more in the past five months than the nine years in management which preceded Villa’s return to the Premier League.

Burnley, their opponents on New Year’s Day, are a club which also struggled in their first season back in the rebranded top-flight. They were relegated in 2015 but manager Sean Dyche was never in danger of being sacked, leading them back out of the Championship at the first attempt.

Can the Villa hierarchy, or the club’s supporters, be as brave with Smith?

After reviving a club that was on its knees in 14 months, he deserves time to turn this around. Taking so many players - many of whom were signed from abroad - and gelling them into a new team was always going to be a huge task.

It is easy to forget how Villa also struggled at this time last year, before securing a club record ten wins in a row to charge into the play-offs. Going on a similar run will be virtually impossible in this league, but it proves Smith can operate under pressure.

Yet he has made mistakes, and been tactically outwitted. Since the 2-1 defeat at Wolves on Nov 10, Villa’s performances in the league have been poor, aside from the win over Newcastle and 2-2 draw at Manchester United.

Things can change quickly, of course, and the world will seem brighter if Burnley are beaten and a spot booked in the Carabao Cup final. But nobody doubts that January is now crucial for both club and manager.