Ayr each-way racing tip: Jean Armour equipped to outrun huge outsider price

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It's difficult for horses to overcome double penalties in novice hurdles, and there are two at the head of the market for this renewal. Both 6/4 or less, Ruby Island and Windtothelightning are taking a huge chunk of the market without seeming exceptional and they will be vulnerable carrying 12 pounds extra.

It should only take a performance of around 100-110 to win or place here and I'm happy to take a calculated risk with Jean Armour at juicy odds of 100/1.

She has just raced the once in a fast-run National Hunt flat race, and whilst she didn't place, she was ridden in rear on the wide outside and travelled sweetly before staying on nicely without being asked any serious questions, postmarking a respectable 87.

Jean Armour is from a jumping family and looks like a nicely built mare who should improve for going hurdling. Her close relatives were all capable of running to 100+ marks on their second outings which bodes well. The step up to two and a half miles should help her, and her relatives all seemed to enjoy better ground, so we can remain very hopeful.

The five-year-old is trained by R Mike Smith, and while he is better known for his exploits on the flat, he does have a few hurdlers under his wing. Smith does have a modest 3 per cent strike over jumps, but interestingly his best stat is in novice hurdles that percentage doubles. At Ayr he has won two novice hurdles from 42 starts, and he likes using the excellent Ryan Mania on his best novices, and he is in the saddle today. They do get places at big odds in novice events, with Mania managing a frame finish on a 125/1 for the yard. Today's odds of 100/1 are just too tempting for his profile and I therefore recommend 1 point each way, even if that price halves or more.

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