BBC Sports Personality of the Year best bets: the winner (and losers) identified

Six of Britain’s top sporting superstars will bid to follow in the footsteps of Bobby Moore, Princess Anne, Sir Steve Redgrave and David Beckham among others when the shortlist for BBC Sports Personality of the Year is announced on Sunday night.

For the first time in the competition’s history, the names of the sportsmen and women chosen by an “independent expert panel” will be revealed live on air before the public is tasked with voting for their winner.

With Harry Kane spearheading England’s march to the World Cup semi-finals, a Tour de France victory, Britain’s leading female athletes and motorsport champions celebrating a year of success, now is the perfect time to study the field and identify those likely to miss out on the shortlist, the contenders and the winner of BBC Sport’s end-of-year awards.

Not making the cut

Tyson Fury 10/1

With the heavyweight title fight with Deontay Wilder fresh in the memory, Fury is fourth-favourite to win this event, but it may be worth taking a chance that he is missing altogether from the shortlist.

While Fury’s comeback from serious mental health issues is a fantastic achievement and many neutral onlookers felt he was unlucky to come away from the bout with just a draw, the fact remains that he failed to win and fought just once in the calendar year.

The independent judging panel originally met to discuss their shortlist in November, before Fury’s fight, but reconvened this month and added Tyson Fury’s recovery from his 12th-round knockdown to their list of 2018’s Greatest Sporting Moments, which the public can also vote for.

The Wilder/Fury fight may have lit up a cold December morning, but the man from Manchester has surely not done enough to warrant a place on the shortlist.

Ronnie O’Sullivan 12/1

Capturing a record seventh UK Championship just last week has resulted in bookmakers introducing O’Sullivan into the market at shorter prices than candidates far more likely to make the shortlist.

While he is undoubtedly popular and would garner a decent number of votes, he is unlikely to get on a list whittled down to just six by an expert panel.

Alastair Cook 40/1

Nobody can deny the impact Alastair Cook has made on cricket and, if a special award is handed out on the night, there would be no more deserving recipient than the former England captain.

Cook’s magnificent century in his last test match against India resulted in him finishing his career as the fifth-highest run scorer in Test history and his final fantastic knock has made it into the final five for the greatest sporting moments of the year.

However, it’s impossible to argue that he has achieved more in 2018 than any of his rivals and a place on the shortlist could leave some sportspeople angered over his inclusion.

Jonathan Rea 50/1

Last year’s surprise runner-up for this award, Rea retained his World Superbike Championship in 2018 to become the first man to win four successive titles and also registered his 60th career win, overtaking the mark set by Carl Fogarty.

Given those achievements, it would be logical to assume that Rea would again make any shortlist, but the criteria by which the expert panel come to their decision could work against him.

The panel are asked that its choices “represents the breadth and depth of UK sports” and, as there is room for only six sportsmen or women on this year’s shortlist, it’s surely unlikely that Rea and Lewis Hamilton will both be selected.

A case can be made that Rea has achieved more than Hamilton this year and, if the panel agrees, his price of 50/1 will look huge when the shortlist is announced.

Leading contenders  

Harry Kane 6/4

The Tottenham striker was largely responsible for England football fans daring to briefly dream that 52 years of hurt could finally be brought to an end this summer.

With Kane the first England player since Gary Lineker in 1990 to win the Golden Boot at the World Cup alongside captaining England to the semi-finals of the competition, it’s no surprise that bookmakers make him favourite to take home this trophy.

It’s worth noting that Paul Gascoigne won this award after England got to the same stage of the World Cup in 1990, while Michael Owen scooped the honour eight years later off the back of his wondergoal against Argentina.

However, while he is a certainty to make the shortlist, there are reasons for thinking that other contenders make more appeal. The populations of other British countries will have no interest in voting for Kane, while partisan football fans will be far more reticent to cast their ballots for Kane than they were to cheer for him in Russia.

Lewis Hamilton 6/1

Hamilton will again attempt to become only the fourth multiple winner in the event’s history after Nigel Mansell (1986 and 1992), Damon Hill (1994 and 1996) and Andy Murray (2013, 2015 and 2016).

Hamilton won his fifth Formula One world championship this year, joining only Juan Fangio and Michael Schumacher as winning five or more world titles and is also closing in on the German’s record of race wins.

Hamilton won this in 2014 and has also been placed twice, in 2007 and 2008, so there can be no denying his fanbase are willing to vote for him.

Given the popularity of motorsport and the record of its competitors in this event, it would be foolish to discount Hamilton if he makes the shortlist.

Dina Asher-Smith 20/1

The sprinter is likely to be the only athlete on the shortlist. A talented junior, she has made remarkable progress, finishing fifth in the 200 metres at the 2016 Olympic Games and fourth at the World Championships in 2017

This year, she has started to medal in major competitions, finishing third in the 200m at the Commonwealth Games and winning gold as part of the 4x100m relay team.

Asher-Smith then won both the 100m and 200m at the European Championships, improving her national records, and she is the first British woman to run below 22 seconds for the 200m. She also picked up another gold medal in the 4x100 relay, taking her tally of golds for the year to four.

In terms of pure achievement, she has probably performed better than most of her competition in this field and could be great each-way value at 20-1.

Lizzy Yarnold 33/1

Yarnold is Britain’s most successful Winter Olympian after winning consecutive gold medals in 2014 and 2018.

Team GB’s flagbearer at this year’s opening ceremony in Pyeongchang, Yarnold had suffered from a debilitating inner-ear problem and suffered dizzy spells for a number of years, which caused her to miss big competitions in the years between her two Olympic triumphs.

Upon arriving in South Korea for this year’s Winter Olympics, Yarnold developed a chest infection and was plagued by more dizziness that led to her contemplating pulling out of the skeleton competition and she considers winning the second gold medal the greatest achievement of her career

Adam Peaty 100/1

If this competition was judged solely on gold medals and record-breaking achievements, swimmer Adam Peaty would have already landed the title of Sports Personality of the Year more than once.

This year has been another stellar season of success, with Peaty defending his Commonwealth Games 100m breaststroke title, setting a games record in the semi-final, before a further four gold medals in the 50m and 100m breastroke, the men’s 4x100m medley relay and the mixed 4x100m relay at the European Championships.

He broke his own world record in the 100m breaststroke in Glasgow and now holds the 11 fastest times in the 50m breaststroke and the 14 best times in the 100m breaststroke.

Riding high    

Geraint Thomas 11/4

This year’s Tour de France winner has every chance of winning this award.

The Welshman has made his way up through the ranks at Team Sky, riding as a domestique to Chris Froome and Bradley Wiggins in their victorious Tours before assuming the mantle of team leader halfway through this year’s event and going on to win in some style.

Thomas’s compatriots tend to vote in force when one of their own is in with a chance of winning this competition. Boxer Joe Calzaghe won in 2007, Ryan Giggs was victorious in 2009, while Welsh rugby international Leigh Halfpenny finished a surprise runner-up to Andy Murray in 2013. Iwan Thomas, Colin Jackson and Tanni Grey-Thompson have also finished on the podium.

With cyclists also having a tremendous record thanks to Chris Hoy (2008), Mark Cavendish (2011) and Bradley Wiggins (2012), there is every reason to think that Thomas will edge out a whole host of deserving candidates to win this year’s award.