Betting college football: Let's back Arizona as a home dog against Oregon

I play stats, not teams. I faded Oregon a couple weeks ago on the road against Washington State and I’m going back to fading Oregon on the road, this time against the Arizona Wildcats.

Bet: Arizona +13 (+385) vs. Oregon

This is a play against the Ducks secondary, which ranks third worst in the FBS against the pass and allowed 375 yards to Washington State’s QB Cameron Ward. The Wildcats are third in the country in passing yards with QB Jayden de Laura holding a similar stat profile to Ward but with one more passing touchdown (14) and half the sacks taken (7).

If Ward could have his best game of the season against Oregon's secondary, de Laura could also, but perhaps with a higher ceiling. He’s coming off back-to-back games throwing for 400-plus yards with eight touchdown passes and two interceptions. I’m looking for de Laura to roll that over into this week’s matchup and exploit the Ducks defense.

Plus, I’m still not fully convinced that Oregon’s QB Bo Nix has fixed his home-versus-away stat splits. Nix at Auburn was a much better passer playing in his home stadium compared to when traveling. So far this season, Nix has nine touchdowns and no interceptions at home but just three touchdowns with three interceptions on the road. In fact, it was an interception that helped Washington State to an underdog cover. The Wildcats are top 50 in takeaways so perhaps that could come into play this week.

With Oregon tied at third in the Pac-12 and facing undefeated UCLA Bruins next week, we could be catching the Ducks in a look-ahead spot.

Back Arizona in what could be a surprise Pac-12 underdog upset.