If you’ve been betting NFL teasers this season, then you know it’s been a bit of a bumpy road. Thinking of the correct two-combo teaser is like dodging landmines.
Two weeks ago, I was correct in fading the ‘looks obvious’ teasers in backing the Bucs -2.5 at Steelers and Packers -1.5 vs. Jets. Both favorites lost outright. Then last week, I was correct in steering clear of Patriots -2 at Bears. New England also lost outright. Let’s see what teaser landmines we can dodge this week.
As a reminder, here are some general guidelines to follow if you are wagering on NFL teasers to keep risk in check.
Stick to six-point teasers (you need to win more consistently to offset the higher price).
Keep it to a two-team teaser (the more pieces you add, the greater the risk).
Target lower-totaled games (the more points expected, the more variance involved).
Tease through the key numbers of three and seven (this approach is at the heart of all proven winning strategies).
Current Week 8 teaser-leg options
Ravens +8 at Bucs, 46
Broncos +8.5 at Jaguars, 39.5
Jets +8.5 vs Patriots, 40.5
Texans +8.5 vs Titans, 40.5
Rams +7.5 vs 49ers, 43
Grabbing a strong defense at +8.5 with the Broncos looks like a solid idea. Except, the game is in London and no team has more support overseas than the Jacksonville Jaguars. With Russell Wilson on the mend, Denver backup Brett Rypien did not play well last week against the Jets, throwing 52% completion for 4.9 yards per pass. Wilson is listed as questionable for Sunday's game. If he doesn't play, I don't want to bank on Rypien getting acclimated in his first London game.
The Jets no longer have RB Breece Hall, the soul of their offense. Now they have to rely on QB Zach Wilson? Yikes. But you’re getting points with a Jets defense. Yeah, about that. The Jets have wins over Pittsburgh (had a mid-game QB switch from Mitchell Trubisky to rookie Kenny Pickett), Miami (played a third-string QB in Skylar Thompson), Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers has not played like Aaron Rodgers) and Denver (Rypien had not started since October 2020). Hard pass.
The Ravens could be a solid option with the Bucs offense looking non-existent as of late but I personally don’t like to wager on standalone games. Finally, the Rams have the fifth-most sacked quarterback in the league and they're facing a 49ers defense that’s second in sack percentage.
Going the non-traditional route
It’s a short sample size but following the Wong teaser strategy has been rocky at best. One of the guidelines is going through the key numbers of 3 and 7, but for Week 8, I’m going off rails just a bit by looking at a game spread juiced at -115, which could push the spread to a Wong leg before kickoff but I'm grabbing the better line now.
NFL Week 8 teaser: Washington +9 and Texans +8.5
There is one game with such juice that I'll be looking to use for the teaser.
Washington +9 at Colts, 39.5 (+3 at -115)
The Week 8 teaser to wager: Washington +9 and Texans +8.5
The Colts benched QB Matt Ryan, opting for their 2021 sixth-round draft pick from Texas, Sam Ehlinger. He was one of the most sacked quarterbacks in college every season from 2018 to 2020, getting dropped 93 total times in his college career. Ehlinger is filling in for Ryan, who was the second-most sacked quarterback before getting benched. Was it the offensive line or Ryan? We’re about to find out because Washington’s defense is top 10 in sacks with DT Jonathan Allen back in the lineup after missing last week’s contest against Green Bay.
The Texans are a stingy team. Sure, they have four losses this season but four of its six games have been played on the road. Coming off back-to-back road games, the Texans could face a Titans offense without QB Ryan Tannehill, who sustained an ankle injury in Week 7. Houston QB Davis Mills may not be getting much recognition but in the two home games the Texans have played, Mills has thrown 68% completion, with a 6.8 average and four passing touchdowns. The Titans secondary is 31st in passing yards allowed and 29th in opponent yards per pass attempt.
If you don’t like the teaser options this week, remember, a no bet is also an option.