Betting Monday Night Football: Fade Josh Allen and the Bills

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·Betting analyst
·2-min read
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Wind could be the real competition in the Monday Night Football matchup when current AFC East leaders, the New England Patriots, travel to Buffalo to face the Bills as 3-point underdogs. One of the most anticipated matchups of the season could be dampened a bit with sustained winds above 20-25 mph, with gusts reaching 40 mph or higher. That's why we saw the total drop from the opening line of 45 all the way down to the current line of 40.5. Here are the player props I like for MNF that could correlate to the weather conditions. Even in perfect weather, I’d still like these props.

Prop: Damien Harris anytime touchdown (+150)

The Patriots running back could have himself a huge night.The Bills are ranked as the No. 1 defense in the NFL, and sixth against the run. If this was poker, I'd call their bluff. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor rushed for 185 yards and had four scores against the Bills. Titans RB Derrick Henry rushed for 143 yards and had three scores. Is Harris either one of these players? No, but in four games this season, Harris has rushed for 80-plus yards or more. He rushed for over 100 yards in three of those games, and he has scored in six of his last seven games. He’s fully capable and the Bills run defense is suspect. Plus, weather conditions could lend more toward a ground-game attack.

Sprinkle: Harris to score two or more touchdowns +700, and because value, +2500 to have three or more. Tell me Bill Belichick doesn’t have a scheme lined up to expose this Bills defense.

Prop: Josh Allen UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115)

The Bills quarterback is good, but how good is he really going to be against one of the best teams to generate QB pressure? New England leads in sacks plus turnovers forced per game, with LB Matt Judon leading the charge with 11.5 sacks on the season (third-most in the NFL). It’s been awhile, but we have seen how Allen performs when under pressure — against the only other top-10 pass rush he has played, we have to go way back to Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. In that game, Allen threw just one touchdown pass, was sacked three times and had his second-lowest QBR of the season. His worst came in the Bills' 9-6 loss to the Jaguars in Week 9, where Allen was sacked four times.

With no sack props available, I’ll look for Allen to underperform. Aside from facing QB pressure, New England is second in the league for limiting opponent passing touchdowns.

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills looks on during the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at Highmark Stadium on Nov. 21. (Photo by Joshua Bessex/Getty Images)
Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills looks on during the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at Highmark Stadium on Nov. 21. (Photo by Joshua Bessex/Getty Images)
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