PGA betting: Top 40 and Top 20 wagers for the Rocket Mortgage Classic

·Betting analyst
·3-min read

The PGA season is winding down as the tour heads to Michigan for the penultimate event, the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Detroit Golf Club is a par 72 that extends nearly 7,400 yards with pretty wide fairways and not many hazards to disrupt.

I typically like to look at full tournament head-to-head matchups, but there wasn’t any I loved. I’m the type of bettor that places a wager on things I love and not just like. Call me conservative, but this is how you protect your bankroll. This is that type of week. Instead, I’ll be looking at the Top 20 and Top 40 market. I’m eyeing players who can hit long off the tee, or at least have some solid iron play along with recent form. Here are some options for this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Alex Smalley

Top 40 +130

Top 20 +300

Top 10 +700

Top 5 +1400

To win +8000

Almost weekly, it feels as though I discover new players on the PGA tour, especially in these weaker-field events. Smalley is that new player discovery for me this week. The Duke graduate has a couple of good runs on courses similar to Detroit Golf Club in that there are wide fairways and not many penalty areas. Smalley finished T6 in the Mexico Open in May and earlier this month finished T16 in the John Deere Classic. More recently, Smalley finished T10 in the Scottish Open, his strongest performance in the second strongest field he’s played this year. In the field, Smalley is top 20 in ball striking but more often than not, part of the ‘team no putt’ group. However, in his strongest finishes this year, Smalley has still managed to finish Top 30 or better, having remained neutral with the flat stick or even despite losing slightly. If he can continue with that, his ball striking is what will keep him in contention. You are getting plus money for a top 40 but a Top 20 is worth a risk.

CROMWELL, CONNECTICUT - JUNE 24: Ryan Palmer of the United States plays his shot from the 12th tee during the second round of Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands on June 24, 2022 in Cromwell, Connecticut. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
CROMWELL, CONNECTICUT - JUNE 24: Ryan Palmer of the United States plays his shot from the 12th tee during the second round of Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands on June 24, 2022 in Cromwell, Connecticut. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Ryan Palmer

Top 40 +130

Top 20 +300

Top 10 +700

Top 5 +1400

To win +8000

Palmer is definitely more of a risk to take because of his inconsistent play. However, looking at his weighted metrics, Palmer gains off the tee and putting, which is the exact combination I’m looking for this week. On these types of courses where you can just go for it and not feel restricted, Palmer has a T16 in the Farmers Insurance Open and a T5 in the Byron Nelson in May. He’s also coming into this with some rhythm, having finished Top 20 in the Scottish Open and following that up with a T31 in the 3M Open last week.

Cam Young

Top 20 +125

Top 10 +250

Top 5 +400

To win +1800

Young is likely to be a popular wager this week and rightfully so. In the field, Young is first in strokes gained off the tee, top 10 in ball striking and fourth in strokes gained total. After three straight top-20 finishes in February, Young missed the cut in the Players Championship and then again at the Masters. But he bounced back with three straight top-five finishes, including solo third in the PGA Championship. Young can certainly be a volatile one. He took solo second in the Open Championship only after back-to-back missed cuts in the U.S. Open and the Scottish Open. Young is great off the tee, good around the green, but the putting is suspect. In a field like this, you take the best player off the tee, and that’s Young.