Bluffers’ Guide to the Premier League’s festive fixtures: the Boxing Day stats unwrapped

Defoe is the danger man on December 26, and there is good reason for Ho-Ho-Ho Jose Mourinho to be full of cheer, says Martin Bly

We may all be full of food come Boxing Day, but football fans will be hungry for action after a festive weekend that offers nothing more appetising on the pitch than Hamilton v Celtic. But come Monday the Premier League returns in full force, and bluffers will want to unwrap their shiniest statistics for the occasion.

Some of these relate specifically to Boxing Day matches, a traditional occasion that sees many fans in Santa hats and many players wishing that they had said no to that last mince pie. Boxing Day stat No 1: the most effective striker on Dec 26 still currently plying his trade is Jermain Defoe of Sunderland, whose six goals in the Premier League on this day put him just three shy of the all-time Boxing Day ace, Robbie Fowler.

Boxing Day stat No 2: Middlesbrough have won their last five matches on December 26 without conceding a single goal. This year their festive fixture is against Burnley - who (Boxing Day Stat No 3) have failed to score in their last three matches on this date. But Burnley will be at home, and they have won a higher proportion of points at home than any other side, not only in the Premier League but in all four top divisions, with 16 of their 17 points (94 per cent) having come at Turf Moor.

Chelsea will of course be top of the league on Boxing Day morning - the fifth time that they have enjoyed PL pre-eminence on this date. And on all four previous occasions they went on to win the title, a fate that the nation’s pre-eminent number crunchers have decided also awaits them in 2017.

The Financial Times runs the sporting numbers every week in its Baseline column, and this week calculated likely distribution curves for the final points scores of every team in this year’s Premier League, based on matches played so far this season.

The FT boffins suggest that Chelsea will win the league with an average likeliest score of 87 points, four more than Liverpool. Manchester United’s likeliest finishing spot and total is sixth place with 68 points, and every team from West Brom (in ninth) downwards still has some likelihood of failing to make the 40-point safety cut-off - although the maths suggests that Swansea might survive with 34 points, while below them Burnley, Sunderland and Hull will go down.

Sean Dyche, David Moyes and Mike Phelan will no doubt be quick to emphasise that all these predictions are based on matches played so far, while bluffers who prefer gut feeling might reckon that, for example, Sunderland and Moyes are more likely to produce a life-saving run of good results than Swansea under Bob Bradley.

To return to Chelsea for just a moment, their match against Bournemouth on Boxing Day offers Antonio Conte’s men a chance to set a Premier League club record with a 12th consecutive win, which would beat a run of 11 by the club in September 2009. Victory would also edge them ever closer to Arsenal’s all-time PL record of 14 consecutive wins from 2002.

Boxing Day stat No 4, though, suggests that Bournemouth will be no pushover: they currently sit in tenth place, the highest level not just in the Premier League but in the entire historical league system that they have ever occupied at Christmas. And they are unbeaten in their last six matches on December 26.

Finally, Boxing Day stat No 5 should bring festive cheer to the Premier League’s least jolly manager, Ho-Ho-Ho Jose Mourinho: Manchester United have won more Boxing Day matches - 18 - than any other Premier League team.