Bowl projections: Oregon looks like the clear Rose Bowl contender in the Pac-12
We're less than a week away from the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season.
A lot will change over the final month of the 2021 season, but we'll at least have an idea of what the committee is thinking on Nov. 2, when the first set of rankings comes out. Right now, we're just guessing. But we think we have a pretty good idea.
Here are our post-Week 8 bowl projections with only one change among the teams in the New Year's Six bowl games. Oregon is now the clear favorite to make the Rose Bowl in the Pac-12 after beating UCLA in Week 7.
College Football Playoff semifinals
Orange Bowl (Dec. 31)
Georgia vs. Cincinnati
Nothing changes at the top of the bowl projections this week. Georgia will be the No. 1 seed in our projections unless the committee somehow drops the Bulldogs or if they lose. We’re excited to see where Cincinnati slots in the first set of rankings on Nov. 2.
Cotton Bowl (Dec. 31)
Alabama vs. Ohio State
Both teams won big on Saturday night. Nothing changes here too. Ohio State has a big game against Penn State this weekend, though that game lost a little luster with the Nittany Lions’ loss to Illinois in Week 8.
New Year's Six games
Peach Bowl (Dec. 30)
Pitt (ACC champion) vs. Ole Miss (at-large)
Pitt took a huge step toward the ACC title game with a win over Clemson on Saturday. Pitt’s two or more games ahead of every team in the ACC Coastal. Ole Miss, meanwhile, has a path to a 10-2 season.
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1)
Iowa (at-large) vs. Notre Dame (at-large)
Iowa’s trip to Wisconsin on Saturday has the lowest over/under of any game so far this season (36.5). Notre Dame just keeps on winning and there are no ranked teams left on the Irish’s schedule.
Rose Bowl (Jan. 1)
Michigan (Big Ten) vs. Oregon (Pac-12)
The Wolverines have a huge game at Michigan State on Saturday. The winner of that game will get this Rose Bowl spot next week. Oregon slots in ahead of our preseason Pac-12 pick Utah after a nice win at UCLA and the Utes’ loss at Oregon State. The Pac-12 sure looks like the Ducks’ to lose.
Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1)
Oklahoma (Big 12) vs. Kentucky (SEC)
Oklahoma had a nice reality check against Kansas on Saturday. The Sooners will be an interesting CFP litmus test next week. They haven’t been totally impressive. How much will the committee be blinded by the Oklahoma aura? Kentucky doesn’t have any ranked teams left on its schedule and thus has the edge over Ole Miss for the No. 2 SEC spot.
Other bowl games
Bahamas Bowl (Dec. 17)
Charlotte vs. Ball State
Cure Bowl (Dec. 17)
Buffalo vs. Boise State
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 18)
Wyoming vs. Florida Atlantic
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 18)
UTEP vs. Air Force
Independence Bowl (Dec. 18)
BYU vs. UTSA
LendingTree Bowl (Dec. 18)
South Alabama vs. Kent State
L.A. Bowl (Dec. 18)
Utah vs. San Diego State
New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 18)
Marshall vs. Louisiana
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 20)
App State vs. Tulsa
Potato Bowl (Dec. 21)
Nevada vs. Miami (Ohio)
Frisco Bowl (Dec. 21)
SMU vs. Coastal Carolina
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 22)
Army vs. Washington State
Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 23)
Syracuse vs. UAB
Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 24)
Fresno State vs. UCF
Camellia Bowl (Dec. 25)
Troy vs. Eastern Michigan
Quick Lane Bowl (Dec. 27)
Rutgers vs. Western Michigan
Military Bowl (Dec. 27)
Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 28)
East Carolina vs. Liberty
First Responder Bowl (Dec. 28)
West Virginia vs. Northern Illinois
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 28)
Baylor vs. Tennessee
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 28)
Virginia vs. UCLA
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 28)
Kansas State vs. Maryland
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 29)
Houston vs. Clemson
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 29)
Boston College vs. Minnesota
Cheez-It Bowl (Dec. 29)
Wake Forest vs. Iowa State
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 29)
Oklahoma State vs. Arizona State
Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Dec. 30)
N.C. State vs. Arkansas
Music City Bowl (Dec. 30)
Mississippi State vs. Wisconsin
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 30)
Purdue vs. Stanford
Gator Bowl (Dec. 31)
North Carolina vs. Florida
Sun Bowl (Dec. 31)
Louisville vs. Oregon State
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 31)
Utah State vs. Central Michigan
Outback Bowl (Jan. 1)
Penn State vs. Auburn
Citrus Bowl (Jan. 1)
Michigan State vs. Texas A&M
Texas Bowl (Jan. 4)
Texas vs. LSU