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Boxing betting preview: Best bets for Rigondeaux-Casimero, Franco-Moloney 3
Guillermo Rigondeaux is probably the least respected two-time Olympic gold medalist in boxing history. He is 20-1 with 13 knockouts in his professional career, and he was an astounding 463-12 as an amateur, including seven Cuban national titles.
He hasn’t just been difficult to hit as a pro; he’s been largely impossible. If he was into the fight and didn’t want to be hit, he wouldn’t be hit.
Yet, he never got the widespread public acceptance that his skills demanded.
He’s now a month away from his 41st birthday, and not what he once was, which was all but invincible. But he’s still a remarkably talented and special fighter who will cause problems for just about anyone he faces.
On Saturday (10 p.m. ET, Showtime) Rigondeaux faces John Riel Casimero for a bantamweight championship at Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California. At BetMGM, Casimero is a -230 favorite, while Rigondeaux is +190.
Casimero is younger, stronger and faster, and he is oozing with confidence.
“I respect Rigondeaux because he’s a good boxer and a two-time Olympian,” Casimero said. “But I want to show the world that I can knock him out and a lot of my fans want to see me knock him out. So that’s what I’m going to do.
“I have a surprise for Rigondeaux on Saturday night. He will maybe last three rounds. Don’t run!”
Casimero by KO is -110. He is 30-4 with 21 KOs and has won his last six bouts by KO or TKO. He’s got the power to put anyone in the division to sleep.
But this is Guillermo Rigondeaux we’re talking about here. This is a guy who has absorbed very little punishment over his career and is more preserved at this late stage than most nearly 41-year-olds would be.
“All these jokers always talk a lot about making me retire, but they have to do it in the ring,” Rigondeaux said to Casimero at the news conference. “Let’s see what you do on Saturday. I’m still right here.
“I’m enjoying this back and forth right now. It’s heating up. He’s going to have to back it up on Saturday night. He’s knocked out six guys in a row, but none of them are in the same class as me. He’s going to have the devil in front of him on Saturday.”
Rigondeaux is a very attractive play at +190, but it’s a risk betting on him to win at this age over a talented opponent. But it’s a far less of a risk betting that the fight goes the distance.
I see Rigondeaux fighting cautiously and never allowing himself to be in position to be hit by a clean shot from Casimero. It won’t be the most aesthetically pleasing to fight that way, but it’s effective in remaining upright.
So I’ll ignore the side and put my money on the fight going the distance. I can get Casimero by decision at +350 at BetMGM, so that’s where I’m going to go. I’ll lay two units on Casimero, risking $200 for the potential of a $700 profit if Casimero wins by decision.
Best bets for Joshua Franco vs. Andrew Moloney 3
Joshua Franco and Andrew Moloney will meet for a third time on Saturday (10 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN+) in the main event of a Top Rank card in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
On June 23, Franco dominated Moloney and lifted his super flyweight title. In November, Moloney was cruising through the first three rounds when the fight was halted in the third. It was declared a no-contest when after an absurdly long delay, officials ruled Franco’s swollen eye had been caused by an inadvertent head butt.
I believe, like many, that it was caused by a punch and that Moloney should have won by TKO.
In the rubber match, Moloney is -240 and Franco is +200. I’ve struggled all week on which way I’d play this fight. If it’s the Franco who looked sensational in June, it’s going to be difficult for Moloney. But Moloney overwhelmed Franco in the rematch and it should be noted in their first fight, Moloney suffered busted eardrums early in the bout.
After much internal debate, I decided I liked Moloney to win, though admittedly without a lot of conviction.
But when I saw the line, that changed my calculus. I think Moloney is more likely to win, but this is a very close proposition and you can get Franco at 2-1. So I’ll take the plus money and play one unit on Franco at +200.
Other boxing plays
Vergil Ortiz is -1700 to defeat Egijidus Kavaliauskas, who is +1000. That’s way too big of a number to lay, though I expect Ortiz to win late. So I’ll play Ortiz by KO, somewhere between 10 and 12.
Ortiz by KO/TKO/Technical Decision or DQ is -300, which is a heavy price. I’ll lay a half-unit, betting $50 hoping to win $150.
I’ll lay the -190 and bet Gary Antonio Russell to win over Emmanuel Rodriguez.
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