Brave new world: Japan braces for ‘anything-can-happen’ World Cup

The sumo wrestlers of Japan will have competition for the next seven weeks. Suddenly there will be big men everywhere, blocking out the light and vying for mass attention. The first Rugby World Cup to be staged in Asia is the most significant in history for those trying to promote the oval-ball gospel beyond its familiar heartlands. To ensure that happens the 2019 tournament has to make its presence felt.

It is not just about conquering new markets, either. Make no mistake, rugby union is changing almost as fast as the latest high-speed bullet trains out of Tokyo station. The 2015 tournament is long gone; 2011 is effectively old testament. Even New Zealand, going for a third successive win, cannot rely on the exact same blueprint that has worked for them over the past decade.

Related: Eddie Jones leaves no stone unturned in preparation for the unexpected | Robert Kitson

The reasons for this state of flux are threefold. Firstly there is the unfamiliar stage itself. Not a single member of England’s 31-man squad, for example, has ever played a senior Test in Japan, even if several of their coaches know it well. The humidity and changeable weather conditions could be a factor, particularly if more big typhoons blow in. Not for nothing have many nations been focusing as intently on their players’ fitness as ever before.

Then there is the ongoing tackle height conundrum. Concussion awareness has advanced significantly and any contact with the head and neck, regardless of malevolent intent, now risks severe sanctions. As the All Blacks lock Scott Barrett discovered against South Africa last month, one impulsive false move can have major ramifications. This could be a World Cup with a Billy Ocean-style theme: red cards spell danger, not just for individuals but for all concerned.

On to this same disciplinary knife-edge can also be ladled the significant extra pace and power now spread across the majority of competing squads. Teams such as Fiji, Japan and the US Eagles – airily dismissed as Tier 2 nations by many – will bite someone on the backside at some point and tales of the unexpected can be reliably predicted.

Add it all together and the staid, the ponderous and the tentative will be insufficient. What works on the slower, cooler tracks of the northern hemisphere is not necessarily guaranteed to pay dividends in the land of the rising scrum. Among those to have reached that conclusion appears to be Eddie Jones. Not so long ago he was still backing Chris Robshaw, Dylan Hartley, Mike Brown et al, hoping they had one last sweat-soaked hurrah still in them. Latterly he has changed tack and may well field his so-called “kamikaze kids” – Tom Curry and Sam Underhill – in the same back-row. It makes sense: if referees clamp down harder on illegal clearouts at the breakdown, specialist, energetic ball clampers will grow even more essential.

Which brings us to the wider question of who, from a tightly-bunched pack, is best equipped to lift the Webb Ellis Cup. A brief glance down the All Blacks forwards roster reinforces the sense there is no clear, runaway ante-post favourite. If Brodie Retallick was fully fit things might be different but the world’s best lock may not be sighted before the knockout stages. In his absence New Zealand’s pack looks mortal, which is the only encouragement their rivals ever need.

The finals

1987 New Zealand 29 France 9
Eden Park, Auckland, NZ

1991 Australia 12 England 6
Twickenham, London, England

1995 South Africa 15 New Zealand 12
Ellis Park, Johannesburg, SA 

1999 Australia 35 France 12
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff, Wales

2003 England 20 Australia 17
Telstra Stadium, Sydney, Aus 

2007 South Africa 15 England 6
Stade de France, Paris, France 

2011 New Zealand 8 France 7
Eden Park, Auckland, NZ 

2015 New Zealand 34 Australia 17
Twickenham, London, England 

Top points-scorer (all time) – 277
Jonny Wilkinson England (1999-2011)

Most points in one tournament – 126
Grant Fox New Zealand (1987)

Most points last time round – 97
Nicolás Sánchez Argentina

Most points ever: team – 2,302
New Zealand (next: Australia – 1,645)

Most points by a team in a single match – 145
New Zealand 145 Japan 17 (1995)

… also, from the same match: biggest hauls …
Most points: Simon Culhane New Zealand – 45
Most conversions: Culhane again – 20
Most tries – individual: Marc Ellis – 6

However, biggest winning margin … 142
Australia 142 Namibia 0, 2003
… also the most tries by a team in a single match – 22

Most tries (individual) – 15
Bryan Habana South Africa & Jonah Lomu New Zealand

Most tries in a single tournament – 8
Bryan Habana South Africa, 2007
Jonah Lomu New Zealand, 1999
Julian Savea New Zealand, 2015

Most tries (team) – 311
New Zealand (next: Australia – 209)

Most conversions – 58
Dan Carter New Zealand

Most penalties and drop goals – 58 and 14
Jonny Wilkinson – 58 penalties, 14 drop goals

Most drop goals in a match – 5
Jannie de Beer South Africa v England 1999

Most matches played – 22
Jason Leonard England & Richie McCaw New Zealand

Most tackles (individual) – 225
Richie McCaw New Zealand

Most tackles (team) – 4,020
Australia (next: France – 3,862)

RWC record attendance – 89,867
Ireland 44 Romania 10 (Wembley Stadium, 2015)

Host nations eliminated in group stages – 2
England, 2015
Wales, 1991 (co-hosted with England, Scotland, Ireland and France)

Already South Africa have given them a hurry-up by winning the Rugby Championship and the All Blacks will fly in with more question marks hanging over them than normal. No one is suggesting they are not genuine contenders but their opening pool game against the Springboks will be highly instructive. The Boks will start the tournament hard and fast and could easily puncture many casual assumptions from the outset.

And if Rassie Erasmus’s powerful pack do make an early impact, who is to say they cannot go all the way? The mind drifts to 2007 when, as now, they did not arrive as obvious favourites. All that changed after they pulverised England 36-0 in the pool stages at the Stade de France, with a certain Jones having jumped aboard as a special consultant just a few weeks earlier. They went on to win the final, again at England’s expense, with a shell-shocked New Zealand bowing out in the quarter-finals.

There is a similar air of unpredictability this time. Would you put your mortgage on New Zealand topping their pool or both Wales and Australia breezing past Fiji? Anyone with the faintest knowledge of Fiji’s twin attacking powerhouses Semi Radradra and Josua Tuisova knows the irresistible damage they could inflict. Then there is the host nation, lurking in the same pool as Scotland and Ireland. Japan will be competitive, relentless and motivated, at the very least.

Much will depend on the avoidance of ruinous injuries but one ray of hope for the European challengers could lie in the increasingly important aerial battle. Few are better at regathering a high ball than Wales’ Dan Biggar and even fewer can land a cross-kick on a sixpence more reliably than George Ford. South Africa may have a monster pack and a trio of outstanding 9s but their back three might not be entirely watertight beneath a well-directed greasy ball.

The same charge could be levelled at England’s composure under pressure when opponents stand up to their dynamic power game or pin them back in their own half. Their second-half meltdown against Scotland at Twickenham cannot be entirely dismissed as incidental and Jones has also had his forgettable moments. Not every player who has had dealings with England’s single-minded head coach has loved the experience.

But how many fans care about popularity versus their team winning a World Cup? The blunt truth is that Jones’s England have precious little to beat in comparison with the last two ill-fated campaigns. In 2015 the hosts were out of their own World Cup after just over a fortnight. Eight years ago they ended up mired in more off-field hassle than the other 19 teams combined. When people wonder why expectations of England are not currently sky-high, they have short memories.

For all that I still think they are good enough to reach the last four and, perhaps, go further still. To do so, however, they must defuse any number of booby traps, from Argentina and an unpredictable France in the pool to, potentially, Wales in a quarter-final and either the All Blacks or South Africa in a semi.

Betting against Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards in a sudden-death shootout is seldom wise; how much would those two gnarled gunslingers love to knock England out for the second tournament in a row?

Related: Ireland top rankings after Wales are worn down and suffer fly-half blow

The Welsh defence remains as impervious as any, they have excellent goalkickers and an enviable esprit de corps. They cannot, however, afford to suffer many more significant injuries, having already lost Taulupe Faletau and Gareth Anscombe. Defeat by the Wallabies in their second pool game will also heap an awful lot of pressure on the Six Nations grand slam winners prior to their defining pool fixture against Fiji. They need their back row to cause persistent problems, Alun Wyn Jones to supply yet more inspiring leadership and both Liam Williams and Jonathan Davies to show their class.

If the World Rugby rankings are to be believed, though, it is Ireland whom the rest of the world need to beat. Quite how they have ascended to the top having endured a distinctly patchy 2019 is not entirely clear but their more pressing priority will be to shut down Scotland in an opening Pool A game with massive implications for both sides. Ireland, for all their lofty billing, have not looked quite the same side since Joe Schmidt signalled his intention to step aside from the helm. Johnny Sexton, James Ryan and Robbie Henshaw are increasingly key men but they appear to be missing their injured openside Dan Leavy. Scotland? They will be fine until they bump into a dynamic, power-laden set of opposing forwards, at which point their admirable sense of adventure may not be enough. If they can somehow shock the Irish it is conceivable they will need only a narrow win to top the pool but, with either South Africa or New Zealand potentially awaiting in the quarter-finals, they will do very well to advance further.

This, though, is the anything-can-happen World Cup. Messrs Hansen, Gatland, Schmidt and Cheika could all have a surprise hidden up their track-suited sleeves but it would not surprise me if England and South Africa, as in 2007, turn out to be the last two sumo warriors left standing in Yokohama on 2 November. While the Boks currently look strong, Jones could yet enjoy the last laugh.