Brazilian GP: They think it’s all over

Is there anyone out there confident about predicting anything, after the year we’ve had?

Political shenanigans may have dominated the headlines but who’d have predicted the qualifying fiasco in the early part of the season? Or Red Bull doing the ol’ switcheroo with Max Verstappen and Daniil Kvyat (pictured) weeks after the Russian’s podium finish in China?

Or Nico Rosberg wrapping up the title before the last race? Hold that last thought because this weekend’s action is at Interlagos, and Interlagos has good form when it comes to surprises.

Tales of the unexpected

Lewis Hamilton (pictured) won his maiden title in the last corners of Interlagos, in 2008; Kimi Raikkonen overcame all sorts of odds to take the Drivers’ Championship here the previous year.

In 2012, Sebastian Vettel did just enough to stop Fernando Alonso snatching the title away from him, in a race spattered with incidents ranging from crashes and pit problems to rain and safety cars. I’d take another 2012 race any time.

It’s not just the racing that’s unexpected; there’s no other F1 circuit like Interlagos, crushed into a natural amphitheatre by the concrete sprawl and poverty of Sao Paulo.

If Monaco’s tight streets and opulence are at one end of the F1 location scale, Interlagos is very definitely at the other.

It’s not a place to go exploring – Jenson Button is among those who have been up close and personal with Sao Paulo’s underbelly, having been threatened by gunmen here in 2010.

But the fans are among the best, even if it’s been too long since Brazil last had a World Champion. Their raw enthusiasm and Interlagos’ grizzled, gritty feel are a much-needed contrast to the flawless and, too often, soulless venues that F1 has decamped to in its hunt for new revenue streams.

Wet for it, wet for it

If you like a bit of moisture with your F1, Interlagos is as good a place as any to hang out. Waterproofs are often more essential than a Senna cap; well, almost as essential.

The weather forecasts suggest there could be some wet stuff on Saturday and Sunday though, hopefully, not enough to bring out the safety car.

Normally, you’d say this would benefit Hamilton but the nature of Interlagos could play to Red Bull’s strengths, and rain could bring Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo right into play.

Hamilton needs to win, remember, and Rosberg will want a straightforward race where he can bank one of the top two places – he’s won here for the last two years and the hat-trick would make him World Champion.

If the rain stays away, everyone will be running a combination of softs and mediums – Pirelli say they included hard tyres as an option to open up strategic opportunities but most drivers have only one set of these, so those strategic opportunities don’t appear to be too attractive.

Mind games

After a season in which both Mercedes drivers (pictured) have had their ups and downs, they both appear settled going into what could be the championship deciding race.

But be under no illusion, there’s immense pressure on both of them this weekend.

Hamilton has nothing to lose – he said so in the Thursday press conference – and so turning the engine down and driving conservatively is not an option.

But, despite his many successes elsewhere in the sport, he has never won at Interlagos. If he continues to drive as he has of late, dominating qualifying then controlling the race from the front, then rain will be the biggest threat to him.

One particular strategy to look out for could arise if Hamilton is leading, with Rosberg in second. Hamilton could slow his pace enough to drop Rosberg into striking distance of (presumably) the Red Bulls – that could cost Rosberg points or even end with a collision that would wipe out the German’s huge advantage in the drivers’ championship. Just a thought.

As for Rosberg, he looks and sounds calm, but championship-winning opportunities don’t come around often and they exert a special sort of pressure on drivers.

If he wins, he’s champion; but he’ll know how cruel F1 can be. Just ask Felipe Massa, who thought he’d tied up the championship at Interlagos with a win in 2008 until, seconds later, Hamilton’s last-corner overtake on Timo Glock secured the fifth place he needed to be World Champion.

In Britain, we were too busy cheering on Hamilton to notice just how brutal to Brazilians that result was.

Memo to Ferrari: Look away now

If Ferrari don’t score 20 points more than Red Bull this weekend, then they’ll officially finish third in the Constructors’ Championship.

It’s hard to tell if there’s anyone left to sack at Maranello but, if there is, they’d do well to empty their desk on Saturday.

This is a team that was told in no uncertain terms to get back to winning ways earlier this year and, instead, has contrived to finish in a worse position than they did in 2015.

If they could at least get their tyre strategies sorted for this weekend, it would be an improvement on much of the season so far.

In Vettel, they have a No.1 driver who is under all sorts of pressure at the moment: being scolded by his team, driving a car that isn’t good enough to get him on the podium most weekends, and offending everyone with his (entertaining) rants over the team radio.

After the trouble he caused himself in Mexico (pictured), he may be a little less willing to let rip at backmarkers, race officials and anyone else he momentarily considers himself superior to.

That’s a shame, because Interlagos is a short circuit, and backmarkers are an ever-present opportunity to hear Seb go off on one. A bit of rain could throw Ferrari into a strategy death-spiral but, again, Vettel may be a bit too cowed to take on his bosses over the radio.

Starting from the third row is likely and that at least gives him ample opportunity to get involved in bumper cars at the first corner, and affect the outcome of the championship.

That may well be the biggest impact he can make.

Elsewhere, a lot of drivers will be somewhat more relaxed having secured their seats for next season.

Jolyon Palmer gets another year with Renault, Kevin Magnussen appears to have sewn up a Haas seat and fast Frenchman Esteban Ocon has a three-year deal at Force India, though don’t be surprised if he rocks up at Mercedes before that contract runs its course.

Back in Britain, the race gets under way at 4pm. So you’ve ample time to get a Sunday lunch in at the pub before settling down to see if the championship is decided.

And, if the race itself is as lacklustre as the effort in Mexico two weeks ago, at least you’ll be well fed when you fall asleep.

Somehow, though, I think this one will be worth staying awake for…