Calcutta Cup crucible can reveal real England and test Scotland resurgence

Several lively debates are raging around English rugby. Some reckon the national team are starting to plateau and, despite a striking win-loss ratio under Eddie Jones, could be vulnerable to a chilly blast of reality at Murrayfield on Saturday. Others argue that is nonsense and insist world domination is imminent. By Saturday evening the truth should be much clearer.

Part of the problem is that sporting beauty is in the eye of the beholder. The more England scrap their way to scruffy wins, without always dazzling the neutral with their attacking rugby, the easier it is to underestimate them. If Scotland had won 24 of their last 25 games – even New Zealand, by comparison, have lost three and drawn one – no one would be queuing up to conduct a similar autopsy.

It boils down to the perennial question: are Jones’s England widely misunderstood? If they emerge into the cold Caledonian air and proceed to rip asunder a Scotland side who have won eight of their last nine home matches and rattled the All Blacks in November, the impact will be felt in both hemispheres. If, on the other hand, the Scots rule the breakdown, expose a few more faultlines out wide and kick their goals, England’s prospects in Japan next year will inevitably come back under scrutiny.

To be remembered for peaking between World Cups, as the Kiwis famously used to be, really would be galling for Dylan Hartley and his squad. There is no doubting England have kicked on under Jones: more resilient, more composed and tactically sharper. There remain, however, a couple of critical unknowns: do they really have a further 20% in them as Jones insists and to what extent will the opposition gather momentum over the next 18 months?

This weekend will be particularly revealing on both fronts. England are at a venue where, historically, they have seldom found life entirely comfortable and Scotland are back in their preferred role of sharp-toothed underdogs. That said, they have not scored a solitary try at home against England since Simon Danielli – once of England Under-21s and employed by Bath at the time – touched down in 2004. They last beat England a decade ago and went down 61-21 at Twickenham a year ago.

If nothing else it would be a perfect moment for England to make a definitive statement and silence those who believe they got slightly lucky against Wales. The reality, for all Scotland’s potential under Gregor Townsend, is that England will expect to win here and see off France in Paris in a fortnight. Anything could happen in their final game against Ireland at Twickenham on St Patrick’s Day but, in some ways, the two away games will tell Jones more. As the head coach said this week: “You don’t hear Manchester City talk about playing away from home. You just hear them talk about playing.”

That is certainly the mindset Jones wants to instil by the time his side arrive in Sapporo on the northern island of Hokkaido, where England kick off their 2019 campaign against Tonga. Once the first bagpiper appears and the temperature starts to drop, though, there will be no mistaking their weekend surroundings. It is a shame Scotland do not have the excellent Alex Dunbar and Duncan Taylor available in midfield and that WP Nel and Richie Gray, among others, are not starting in the pack on Saturday. If their execution unravels as it did in Cardiff, Scotland could end up sliding away quicker than poor Elise Christie.

A more encouraging scenario involves Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg showing the best of themselves, the lurking Hamish Watson and John Barclay disrupting plenty of English ball and the home side hoisting an exploratory garryowen or two in the direction of Jonny May. The best Scotland v England games all involve a generous helping of semi-organised chaos and pale-kneed blue-shirted back-rowers rampaging far and wide. A shortened lineout or two, to further break up English rhythm, would also maintain the necessary tempo; Scotland absolutely cannot afford to be behind when the clock hits the hour mark.

Most Scottish supporters would walk 500 miles to watch their country beat England at tiddlywinks, never mind lift the Calcutta Cup, so a raucous atmosphere can also be guaranteed. With the BBC’s Ian Robertson about to commentate on this historic fixture – this is the 125th edition, though Robbo has missed a couple – for the last time, there are a few reasons to anticipate a noisy afternoon. Barclay, for one, admits stopping the visitors will take some doing: “They are one of the best teams in the world, their record is fantastic and they come here as massive favourites, in my opinion. They are a quality side with quality players throughout … it’s a big challenge for us to stop them.”

That is pretty much what every Scotland captain has muttered down the ages, before striding back to their team’s inner sanctum and roaring something wholly different. England did enjoy some fortune in their last game and Saturday’s television match official will be on particularly high alert. Hartley’s men have played well in parts this season but, on tour in Argentina apart, have seldom cut loose since the Scotland romp last year. That game was shaped by Fraser Brown being sent to the sin-bin early on, from which the Scots never properly recovered.

Saturday’s encounter, even so, still feels like England’s to lose. If Owen Farrell maintains his authoritative form, Joe Launchbury shines again on his 50th cap, England’s scrummaging sessions against the mighty Georgians pay immediate set-piece dividends and their special heated trousers keep their bench “finishers” nice and warm, it is even possible they could rack up a double-figure margin, reviving distant memories of John Carleton sprinting away to clinch a grand slam in 1980 rather than David Sole’s slow march a decade later.

The visitors should certainly be capable of a better outcome than France, who faded badly in the second half a fortnight ago before going on a night out in Edinburgh that ended even more messily. It is now 30 years since Dean Richards and John Jeffrey infamously took the Calcutta Cup out for an impromptu night-time session but England are here on business rather than pleasure this time.