Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad (KLSE:CARLSBG) shareholders have endured a 15% loss from investing in the stock three years ago

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad (KLSE:CARLSBG) shareholders, since the share price is down 22% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 24%.

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

See our latest analysis for Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 2.9% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

It looks to us like the market was probably too optimistic around growth three years ago. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.

With revenue flat over three years, it seems unlikely that the share price is reflecting the top line. We're not entirely sure why the share price is dropped, but it does seem likely investors have become less optimistic about the business.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad's TSR for the last 3 years was -15%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 5.1% over one year. That's including the dividend. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 7% a year, is even better. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.

Of course Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Malaysian exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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