Champions League preview: The dream draw kicks off

We could not have wished for a better Champions League semi-final draw.

Purists may have preferred to see PSG and Barcelona advance to form a quartet of the world’s most aesthetically pleasing teams, but the unexpected triumphs of Manchester City and Atletico Madrid have provided us with something far more interesting.

Tactically, the two ties are entirely opposed; one will be a game of furious end-to-end attacking and the other a calculated standoff defined by tactical subtlety and mental strength. Any other combination of semi-finalists would have created a predictable pattern of patient possession football but instead - with defensive frailties undermining City and Real whilst Atletico face their perfect opponents in tiki-taka Bayern – the semi-finals promise a jarring clash of tactical identities and plenty of goals.

Man City v Real Madrid

Both of these sides are vulnerable to counter-attacks thanks to their high back lines, roaming full-backs, and chaotic central defensive partnerships, but each possess wonderful attacking footballers that thrive on the counter. This promises to be an end-to-end game defined more by tactical inadequacies than intelligent or discipline.

1) Can Real improve on their Wolfsburg display or will Kevin de Bruyne’s counter-attacks catch them out?
Zinedine Zidane’s reintroduction of a possession-centric tactical philosophy at Real Madrid has increased the frequency with which their full-backs look to receive the ball on the overlap; in a narrow 4-3-3 shape both Danilo and Marcelo now find the time to advance forward during sustained periods of Real pressure, which in turn leaves large pockets of space behind them. This is where Zidane’s Real are most vulnerable, as proved in the 2-0 defeat to Wolfsburg in the quarter-final when Julian Draxler terrorised Danilo.

Man City have inadvertently become exactly the sort of team Zidane will dread facing. Having averaged 36% possession across the two PSG matches City proved they are comfortable sitting deep and pouncing on the counter via de Bruyne and Sergio Aguero (Real average 56.7% possession in the Champions League, and thus should dominate the ball at The Etihad).

All three goals scored against Chelsea last weekend came directly from counter-attacks, as did the vital opener in the first leg against PSG. De Bruyne lurks in positions across the entire width of the pitch and his team-mates – most notably Fernandinho – look to feed him the ball as quickly as possible when the opponents’ attack breaks down. The site of the Belgian tearing into space behind Real’s full-backs with Aguero alongside for support is a worrying one for Zidane. It could prove to be the difference.

2) Do Fernando and Fernandinho possess the discipline to keep Ronaldo and Benzema quiet?
De Bruyne and co. should find plenty of joy pouring forward but the same can be said for Real Madrid who – on the counter-counter – will most likely dominate a Fernando/Fernandinho partnership that still looks shaky against the bigger teams.

In the second leg against PSG their partnership looked very strong; Fernando swept up from a deeper position (five tackles, four interceptions) whilst Fernandinho burst forward to cut off the passing lines between Thiago Motta and Adrien Rabiot – the key orchestrators of PSG’s short-passing football. However, their roles were simplified thanks to the tepid nature of the Parisians’ attacks; a laboured, directionless display from the front four saw PSG amass just four shots on target and three key passes.

A more accurate representation of their haphazard partnership is the opening fifteen minutes of the first leg in which PSG countered superbly. Zlatan Ibrahimovic dropped into space between the two Man City midfielders, Edinson Cavani played on the outside of Fernando, and Blaise Matuidi galloped ahead of both Brazilians. Fernando and Fernandinho were caught flat-footed and too far apart from one another, marking the space instead of the players and allowing the opponent to completely overwhelm their zone of the pitch. Zlatan missed a one-on-one and a penalty in a period that should have seen the French side score at least three times.

It was the kind of performance we have grown accustomed to after counter-led defeats to West Ham, Liverpool, Leicester, and Stoke this season. Real will expect similar success. Cristiano Ronaldo lurks on the inside-left in a position that Fernando, distracted by Karim Benzema, will struggle to mark alone. If Fernandinho hurtles forward in an attempt to press high up the pitch he will leave City desperately exposed; a poorly organised defensive midfield will be overrun by BBC.

Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich

There will be a strong sense of deja-vu in the Vicente Calderon when Bayern make the trip to Madrid. The similarities between Pep Guardiola’s current Bayern side and his former club Barcelona are many, and as such the tactical pattern of this game will closely mimic both legs of Atletico’s quarter-final. It is difficult to predict how the ever-adapting Guardiola will set up his side, but whatever team he selects Bayern will struggle to break through Atletico’s magnificent defensive shape.

1) Can Bayern work around the Atletico defence by exploit the flanks?
Simeone’s defensive model is the best in the world for many reasons, and a full understanding of their system is needed to find a chink in their armour. Atleti dominate space, not the ball; mark the gaps, not the players. They press high when the ball is with the opponent’s defenders (see below) but drop into a compressed shell when under sustained pressure; in both approaches, the aim is to cut off passing lines and force the ball out wide.

The sheer complexity of the system deserves greater analysis than can be given here, but suffice to say such a tightly orchestrated model can only be defeated one way; work around it, and not through it. In the second half of the quarter-final first leg Barcelona, having been suffocated in the first half, began switching the play with greater urgency and instructed Jordi Alba to play virtually as a left winger. Atletico were slowly stretched apart.

He and Dani Alves grew into the game because Barcelona ignored their short-passing instincts and instead looked to manoeuvre the ball into the flanks. Barca created four chances from the by-line in the second half, compared to zero in the first half; when playing in such a compressed shape, it becomes difficult to cover the wings when the ball is switched regularly.

Bayern’s Frank Ribery and Douglas Costa should be instructed to stay wide, David Alaba and Philipp Lahm must make overlapping runs, and Xabi Alonso will need to switch the ball from flank to flank as often as possible. Like any possession-centric side Bayern prefer to play narrowly and thus increase short-passing options, but it is vital that they ignore their instincts.

2) Will Atletico’s forwards be able to suffocate Alonso and prevent Bayern from building from the back?
Atletico’s frantic pressing in the opposition half was very successful in the second leg against Barcelona. Yannick Carrasco and Antoine Griezmann sprinted sharply onto Sergio Busquets to shut down the channels between him and the full-backs, which dramatically unsettled Barcelona’s rhythm. Without this initial pass, MSN couldn’t receive passes down the lines whilst Ivan Rakitic and Andres Iniesta were forced out of the mass of Atleti bodies and into harmless deep positions.

This trick will need repeating, particularly if Alonso is hoping to spray passes from flank to flank in order to stretch the home side. Despite appearing to take place in an innocuous area of the pitch Griezmann’s battle with Alonso could be the most important battle of all, not least because Atletico will need to win the ball in central midfield if they are to counter-attack successfully.