What chance glory for England? 9.7%

England go into the quarter-finals as third-favourites to win Euro 2012, according to stats gurus Infostrada.


Spain and Germany are the two front-runners for the tournament, but England represent the best of the rest after winning Group D.

Infostrada's Euro Club Index examines every result to work out each country's chances of progress throughout the tournament.

And England are slight favourites to win their match against Italy - given a 51.2% chance of reaching the semi-finals compared with 48.8% for the Italians.

And Spain versus England is rated as the second most likely final. Spain are given a 57.7% chance of coming through their half of the draw, while Roy Hodgson's men have a 21.4% chance of making the final in Kiev.

View gallery


View gallery


(Stats from Infostrada)

While many may be surprised at these figures, official match stats from UEFA for the sides still left in the tournament show that, statistically speaking, England have been doing far better than people give them credit for.

The team's defensive approach has made Joe Hart the busiest goalkeeper of the eight sides left in the tournament, while England have made the most tackles in the tournament (62). Yet the discipline has been exemplary, with just 30 fouls committed (only Germany have made fewer with 27).

It is the passing stats that most surprise, however: England's passing accuracy is the fourth best in the tournament at 82.6 per cent (only Spain, France and Germany are better), and the team's total of 1,124 passes is better than Portugal's tally and not too far behind Italy (1,317) and Germany (1,553). Spain top that list with 2,289 passes, almost half as many again as second best passers France (1,627).

The stats in our table below suggest that England are at least on a par with Italy:

It's not just the statistics that suggest England could thrive: a series of spooky coincidences doing the rounds on the internet has drawn the parallels between England's run so far at Euro 2012 and Roy Hodgson's run to the Europa League final with Fulham.

During their run Hodgson's Fulham beat a Ukrainian side in Donetsk, beat an Italian side in the next round, enjoyed success against a German team in the semi-finals and produced a valiant but ultimately losing effort against a Spanish team in the final. The draw is set to allow England to do the exact same thing.


View gallery


(Stats from Opta)

Sorry you didn't like this comment. Please provide a reason below.

Are you sure?
Rating failed. Try again.
Request failed. Try again.
We will promote constructive and witty comments to the top, so that everyone sees them!
Sorry, we can’t load comments right now. Try again.

    Win cash in one day fantasy football contests. Join now!

    Learn how to play

    Contest Entries Entry Fee Prizes Starts (EDT)
    Champions League £250 Tournament 76/284 £1 £250 Today 7:45 PM Enter
    Champions League £250 Tournament 7/57 £5 £250 Today 7:45 PM Enter
    CL £1 Learn To Play [No Risk] 14/75 £1 £100 Today 7:45 PM Enter