3.15 Chester: tote.co.uk Bet £5 Get £20 Ormonde Stakes (1mile 5 furlongs)

No luck with the trends analysis last week, although my best-value selection Chaldean in 2000 Guineas won nicely, having been heavily backed from 8/1 down to 7/2. This week the main meeting is Chester, which sees a number of Derby and Oaks trials round one of the most interesting courses in Britain. If you ever have the opportunity to go to what boasts to be the oldest racecourse in Britain, then I am sure that you will be captivated not just by the racing but by the surroundings. I have used the following trends to narrow the field down from the fifteen entered hopefully to just a few contenders.

I have used the following trends to narrow the field down from the fifteen entered hopefully to just a few contenders.

• 18/20 - Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting

• 16/20 - Had won over at least 1m 4furlongs

• 13/20 - Won by either a four or five-year-old

• 14/20 - Did not win their previous race

• 11/20 - Had a previous run that season

• 11/20 - Finished in the top three last time out

• 10/20 - Won by the favourite

•   9/20 - Had run before at Chester

•   5/20 - Ran in the John Porter (Newbury) last time out

•   5/20 - Won by trainer Aidan O'Brien

•   5/20 - Ridden by Ryan Moore

•   3/20 - Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (six wins in all)

• The last six winners came from stalls five or lower

When the thirteen trends above are used, the eight-strong field is halved to four runners who have the following scores:

Suggested bet: Changingoftheguard to win the 15:15 at Chester

• 4   Israr

• 4   Enemy

• 6   Hamish

• 8   Changingoftheguard

Israr has not won further than 1 mile 4 furlongs, has not run in any Stakes races (above Class 2), and frankly has not shown anything that suggests he can win this.

Enemy has run three times in the Middle East since the start of the year, managing to finish second in a Group 3, albeit over two furlongs further on fast going.

All of his wins to date have been in handicaps and this is a big ask, although his performance in Saudi Arabia suggests he has improved. Hamish won this race last season before he finished a close-up second to the excellent Kyprios in the Group 1 Irish St. Leger and that was a massive improvement. He may just be a late maturing type and he has won three out of four attempts at Group 3 level. He is sure to go well again, but 2/1 or less for a seven-year-old is pretty short to be having a bet.

Changingoftheguard comes out the best on the trends and with Ryan Moore and Aiden O'Brien having such an excellent record in this race, and the four-year-old colt has already won at Group 2 level.

The only question is if he is fully fit, but the fact that he holds entries for multiple Group 1 races later in the season speaks volumes to his trainer's thoughts about Changingoftheguard. Trends analysis best bet: Changingoftheguard to win the 15:15 at Chester

The article Chester betting tip: Trends suggest time is right for Changingoftheguard in Ormonde Stakes appeared first on Planetsport.com.