Chester Cup betting tips: Trends suggest Call My Bluff can pass stamina test

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This is one of the top distance handicaps on the flat and on the current soft-to-heavy going it is really going to stretch the stamina of the seventeen runners.

Last year, 6/1 shot Cleveland was piloted to a narrow neck victory by Ryan Moore, just holding off the renewed challenge of the 9/2 favourite Coltrane in a thrilling finish. That result gave Aidan O'Brien his first Chester Cup success, but he does not have a runner in this year's renewal, while Moore will be well fancied to guide the current favourite Falcon Eight to victory.

I have used the following trends to narrow down the field and hopefully identify the potential winner:

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  • 19/20 - Aged under eight years old

  • 17/20 - Winning distance - two lengths or less

  • 14/20 - Aged five, six or seven

  • 14/20 - Finished unplaced last time out

  • 14/20 - Officially rated between 93-99

  • 13/20 - Had won over at least two miles (on flat)

  • 13/20 - Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting

  • 13/20 - Carried less than 9st 3lbs

  • 13/20 - Had raced within the last two months

  • 12/20 - Won from lower than stall 8

  • 11/20 - Favourites were unplaced

  • 10/20 - Irish bred

  •   4/20 - Ran at Newmarket last time out

I have ignored the trend rated between 93-99 to some extent as I think a lower weight will be an advantage here considering the ground conditions.

I was left with four contenders based on those trends: Calling The Wind, Vino Victrix, Call My Bluff and Emiyn.

Suggested bet: Call My Bluff each-way in the 15:15 at Chester

Calling The Wind will have no problem staying but he has not won since July 2021 and remains six pounds above that last winning weight.

He has finished second in similar races off higher marks, so is likely to be close to the places, but ultimately, I think his weight will eliminate his chance of winning. Vino Victrix was second in the Cesarewitch with today's claimer on board off a similar mark, but the ground was good, and he has not yet won on soft/heavy. He has a chance here off his current mark if he can cope with the going. His draw is a bit high, which is another negative, although I believe stamina is more important on this ground. Emiyn is a course-and-distance winner, which is a big plus, and the fact that he handles heavy going is another plus. He does carry three pounds more than when winning here in September, but he also had a five- pound claimer onboard back then, so the weight difference today is actually eight pounds. That weight turnaround means a lifetime best is required here, but he could run into the places. Call My Bluff is near the bottom of the weights and has a low draw, but most importantly was second here behind Emiyn in September, and now has a pull at the weights. He stays and will handle the ground and the main question is quite simply whether he is good enough. With the stable in form, I think he is worth an each way bet, so look around for extra places on offer to enhance that value.

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