College football betting, odds: Is Tennessee still a team on the rise?

The Tennessee Volunteers delivered a statement in 2021, proving coach Josh Heupel's high-octane offense could flourish in the most talented conference in college football. The Vols scorched defenses for 45 or more points seven times while averaging slightly under 40 points per game for the season. They were ninth in total offense (474 yards per game), but it would be short-sighted to attribute all of their success to the aggressive pace they put on opposing defenses. On a per-play basis, Tennessee wasn't only fast; it was efficient. The offense's 6.74 yards per play landed it inside the Top 20, peaking at 7.03 in the last full month of the season. It was no secret that Heupel's offense was fast, but the speed of the program's turnaround in Tennessee took most by surprise.

The inevitable byproduct of instant success is the expectations that follow. Tennessee's seven-win year accelerated the timeline for Heupel to raise the bar even further in his second season. The offense will be loaded once again. QB Hendon Hooker returns after throwing 31 touchdowns against three interceptions. His growth in Heupel's scheme positions him as an intriguing 50-to-1 long shot at BetMGM to win the Heisman Trophy. Also returning is his most dependable target in WR Cedric Tillman. That electric combination finished last season by connecting seven times for 150 yards and three touchdowns in the Music City Bowl. But as they found out in that 48-45 loss to Purdue, you can't rely on outscoring everybody. And with expectations soaring in Year 2, it's going to be the defense that decides whether this team improves in 2022.

Is the Vols' offense enough to push them to eight wins?

A big part of Heupel's offensive identity is keeping his foot on the gas, but the Vols' defense made it an absolute must. Last year's Music City Bowl was a prime example. Tennessee lost to Purdue despite gaining 663 yards of total offense. Boilermakers QB Aidan O'Connell did whatever he wanted, throwing for 534 yards in the overtime win. In addition, Tennessee's porous secondary ranked dead last in the SEC in pass defense, and the team opted not to bring in a lot of outside help to improve the unit. That's a big gamble for a defense that finished outside of the top 100 in three key categories:

• Points allowed per quality possession

• Explosive pass plays allowed of 20-plus yards or more

• Opponent third-down conversion rate

The Vols' defense relies on a strong pass rush to create havoc, but I have concerns about whether that approach can be successful against the talent-rich offenses of the SEC. The Vols' in-conference wins last season were against Missouri, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. Those four teams had a combined conference record of 9-23.

Tennessee 8 wins: Over (-105); Under (-115)

After spending most of the summer at 7.5 wins, strong support for the over has pushed the win total to 8. The adjustment opens up the perfect opportunity to bet the under with push protection in case of an 8-4 season. Nine wins would be far too great of a leap for a team with the defensive question marks Tennessee carries into this year. It's much easier to find five losses on the schedule than three. A 9-3 season would allow only one loss in addition to the inevitable two coming from Alabama and Georgia.

The Vols have three tough road games at Pittsburgh, LSU, and South Carolina, plus two conference home games hosting Kentucky and Florida. That's five opponents, outside of Alabama and Georgia, that I expect to be competitive. One thing that stuck out to me about Tennessee was that despite last year's 7-6 record, it didn't show the ability to punch up against stronger teams. Tennessee was 1-5 ATS as an underdog, and it should remind bettors that even after a successful first year, Heupel is still building his roster. The Vols' style of play also makes them more susceptible to high-variance outcomes. You can't put teams away if your defense can't get off the field.

Heupel has done a tremendous job building a new culture in Knoxville, where they have every reason to be optimistic. But, it's too fast and too soon to expect the team to continue on this trajectory. I see the Vols as a 7-win team, which makes under 8 wins a solid bet at -115 odds. The Vols' offense will continue to break records under Heupel, but the team will be stuck in neutral until the defense catches up.

*Stats provided by teamrankings.com, athlon sports, and cfbstats.com.