College Football National Championship Preview - Can Clemson upset Alabama?

This has been one of the easier College Football seasons to predict. Most pundits felt Alabama and Clemson were the top two teams in the nation long before the season started. Lindy’s Sports Annual, the premier Football authority in the States, had Clemson as the top-ranked team, with Alabama in second spot.

However, Alabama have been the No.1-ranked team in the nation since the polls were unveiled and while they have won two of the last three National Championship titles, they were ranked at No.2 (2016) and No.4 (2017). Indeed, they aim to become the first No.1-ranked team to win the title, as Ohio State (2015) and Clemson (2016) were ranked No.4 and No.2 respectively.

Going into Monday night’s NCAA National Championship game, which will be played at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, home of the NFL’s San Francisco 49ers, it is unbeaten Alabama who are the favourites.

Here, we break down the latest instalment of an epic rivalry, offering the odds and insight you need for the big game. The odds are kindly supplied by our friends at GentingBet.

UNBEATEN AND DOMINANT, THEY’RE BACK AGAIN

Alabama and Clemson have dominated College Football in recent seasons. Since the start of the 2015 season Alabama is 55-3 and Clemson is 54-4.

This is the fifth year of the College Football Playoffs, and these two meet for the fourth year in a row. Alabama has won the National Championship two of the last three years including in 2015 over Clemson 45-40. In 2016, Clemson beat Alabama 35-31 in another nail-biter, with a last-second touchdown pass settling the National Championship.

Last year, in the 2017 College Football Playoff semi-finals, Alabama beat Clemson 24-6, and the Crimson Tide went on to win the National Championship, beating Georgia 26-23 in overtime.

CLEMSON OFFENSE vs ALABAMA DEFENSE

Alabama gave up 34 points in the Orange Bowl, but still managed to overcome Oklahoma, as the Crimson Tide ran out 45-34 winners in the ‘semi-final’ to take their record to 14-0 on the year.

It is hard to comprehend what a great recruiting job the Tide has done. Chasing their fourth consecutive National Championship appearance, they opened the season with eight new starters on defense. They also have played all season without junior outside linebacker Terrell Lewis and for most of the season without junior cornerback Trevon Diggs.

For the most part, they have been exceptional. They shut out LSU 29-0 and Mississippi State 24-0 in successive November Saturdays. Yet there have been times when they have looked vulnerable. Arkansas put 31 points on them in early October, and they sneaked past Georgia with a 35-28 win in the SEC Championship game last month, conceding 301 yards and three touchdowns to Bulldogs’ passer Jake Fromm.

Alabama are sweating on fifth-year senior outside linebacker Christian Miller, who sustained a hamstring injury that has left him questionable for the title game. The 6-4, 244-pound Miller is third on the team with 11.5 tackles for loss and second with 8.5 sacks. He generates plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and sets the edge well.

Clemson’s offense may not be as dynamic as the Sooners’ and Tigers’ freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence may not be as elusive as Oklahoma’s Heisman Trophy-winning passer Kyler Murray, but he has thrown for 2,933 yards and 27 touchdowns, and just four interceptions since taking over as starter in late September.

He also has the winning mentality, with the Tigers averaging 47.8 points per game in his 10 starts, including a 30-3 win over Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl last week, where he threw for 327 yards and three touchdowns. The balanced attack racked up 538 yards of offense against what was considered to be a top-tier defense.

He has a good corps of receivers including Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross and reliable veteran Hunter Renfrow and he goes up against a unit that has had its issues defending the pass. Alabama rank outside the top 30 in the country, allowing 202 yards passing per game against FBS opponents.

Clemson’s offense was ranked No.4 in the country, averaging 530 yards per game against FBS opponents and they beat 10 bowl teams, out-gaining them by an average of 236 yards per game.

However, last year’s demoralising 24-6 defeat to the Crimson Tide the national semi-final will haunt the offensive line. The Tigers ran for just 64 yards in the Sugar Bowl and former QB Kelly Bryant was sacked a season-high five times.

Finding a way to stop Alabama defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, referred to as a “300-pound bar of soap” by his teammates, because he is so slippery and tough to block, presents the biggest challenge for the Tigers. Williams has 17 tackles for loss with seven sacks and is pondering whether to jump to the NFL this season.

ALABAMA OFFENSE vs CLEMSON DEFENSE

While Lawrence’s arrival has seen the Tigers’ offense tick over with the smoothness of a Lamborghini, the defense has subsequently steam-rolled opponents, allowing an average of 10.8 points per game.

Clemson held Pittsburgh to 200 yards of offense in a 42-10 win in the ACC Championship game and then crushed Notre Dame 30-3 in the Cotton Bowl, limiting the Irish to 248 yards in total.

Defensively, they boast similar numbers to Mississippi State, who led the nation in total defense, allowing 12.5 points per game and 269 yards per game. The Bulldogs’ 4.0 yards per play was second only to Clemson’s 3.9 yards. Yet while Mississippi State held Alabama to its lowest offensive output of the season (305 yards at 4.2 yards per play), they still lost 24-0.

Clemson’s pass rush is a little stronger, but they will miss defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, who was suspended for the Notre Dame game for a failed drugs test. While an appeal is ongoing, the central cog in the exceptional defensive front will not be available to play in the National Championship game, along with Zach Giella, a backup offensive lineman, and Braden Galloway, a freshman tight end, who were similarly found to be in contravention of the rules.

Senior Albert Huggins, who forced a fumble against Notre Dame in place of Lawrence, is expected to start again.

Aside from that obvious drawback, this is another strength-on-strength battle, as Alabama averaged 47.5 points per game against 13 FBS opponents and 525 yards per game. They defeated eight bowl teams and outgained them by 212 yards per game.

Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa piled up 41 touchdowns and four interceptions on his way to 3,671 passing yards but has been limited with an injured ankle, picked up in the Orange Bowl, and was in a walking boot for a while.

However, while Oklahoma’s defense is not anywhere near the force of Clemson’s, Tagovailoa threw for 318 yards and four touchdowns with only three incompletions (24-of-27) against the Sooners and round-the-clock medical attention means he is nearer to 100 per cent fit than the 80 per cent he said he was prior to the win in the Orange Bowl.

And if things get dicey, Jalen Hurts is an exceptional back-up, who led a comeback from a 28-14 deficit to beat Georgia 35-28 in the SEC Championship.

Clemson will know that teams who have spread the ball around well, utilising tight ends or passing to running backs out of the backfield, have had success against Alabama’s linebackers, but the offensive line must give Lawrence the time to organise things, and that won’t be easy with Alabama’s marauding front.

Lawrence needs to have one of his best games of the season, while the Tigers’ defense needs to disrupt the pocket around Tagovailoa and force at least a couple of turnovers, if Clemson are to have a chance of unseating the champions.

THE ODDS

Clemson are considered 5.5-point underdogs at odds of 17/20. They can be supported at 13/8 to win on the Moneyline, while Alabama are 2/5 to win. The Crimson Tide can also be backed at 10/11 to successfully concede 6.5 points on the handicap.

The points total is set at 58.5 points and it is 17/20 that there will be fewer points scored than that mark. For all the odds, click here.

Those seeking College Football picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.

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