First place in the AFC South will be on the line when the Colts (6-4) travel to play the Texans (6-4) on "Thursday Night Football" (8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, Amazon Prime Video, NFL Network). Indianapolis leads the division because of beating Houston at home earlier. Houston right now would make the playoffs as the AFC No. 6 seed.
Should the Colts win, they would go from the No. 4 behind the Chiefs to No. 3. Should the Colts lose, they would drop to No. 7 behind the Raiders, to whom they lost.
Should the Texans win, they would go from No. 6 to No. 3. Should the Texans lose, they would drop to No. 7, too, hoping the Raiders lose to the Jets on Sunday to get back to No. 6.
Here's everything to know about betting on Colts vs. Texans in Week 12, including updated odds, trends and our expert's prediction for "Thursday Night Football."
Colts vs. Texans odds for 'Thursday Night Football'
Spread: Texans by 3.5
Point total: 45
Odds: Colts -103, Texans -107
The Texans are basically a little more than home-field favorites here after getting crushed on the road by the Ravens. The spread has gone up to 4 points in their favor for some sportsbooks. The Colts are coming off a convincing home win over the Jaguars.
Colts vs. Texans all-time series
The Colts have dominated the series since it began in 2002 when the Texans entered the NFL, going 28-8. The Colts have won three straight and five of six, including the teams' wild-card playoff meeting last January, 21-7. The Texans beat the Colts in overtime in Indianapolis last September.
Three trends to know
— 57 percent of spread bettors are going with the Texans. 57 percent of moneyline bettors are going with the Colts.
— With Deshaun Watson and Jacoby Brissett as the quarterbacks, despite injury concerns on both offenses, 55 percent of bettors like the game to go over the point total.
— The Texans are 2-5 against the Colts over the past three seasons. Only 3 of the past 8 games between the teams have gone over.
Three things to watch
Will Fuller return?
The Texans need some wide receiver pop downfield to help DeAndre Hopkins and Watson. Will Fuller was close to coming back from his hamstring injury against the Ravens and is a game-time decision to see his first action since Week 7. Should he go, it would be a huge needed boost to Watson against the Colts' secondary.
No Mack — but likely yes Hilton
The Colts will be without Marlon Mack, who fractured his hand against the Jaguars. That means they turn to a committee of Jonathan Williams, Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines for the eary-down and receiving load. Williams was great against the Jaguars, but the Texans are a better run defense. But Colts wide reciever T.Y. HIlton, a noted Houston killer, looks like he's returning from his calf injury. The Colts will need to throw more often and effectively with Brissett to win.
Frank Reich vs. Bill O'Brien
Reich's aggressive coaching staff has gotten the better of O'Brien's early in their sideline rivalry. The Colts play a lot of close games are are good at winning battles of attrition, despite recent losses to the Dolphins and Steelers. O'Brien needs to have his team push the right buttons late to avoid a mild upset.
Stat that matters
The Texans are the No. 13 run defense in the NFL, allowing on average 102 yards per game, but they give up 4.7 yards per carry. The Colts rank No. 9, at 96.8 yards per game at 4.3 yards per carry. This game will likely be won through the air by either Watson or Brissett. The Colts are No. 11 there, while the the Texans are No. 29.
Colts vs. Texans prediction
Watson had a rough outing in Baltimore but will rebound at home to lift his team in a crucial game. The Colts' offense is missing its top power back Mack, and although Brissett will grind and deliver some big pass plays to Hilton and others to keep the Colts in it, Watson will deliver the game-winning drive late.
Texans 24, Colts 20