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England at the World Cup: what can we expect from Southgate’s team?

<span>Photograph: Nick Potts/PA</span>
Photograph: Nick Potts/PA

It was easy to see the drab 1-1 Wembley draw against Hungary in October as a turning point – or, at least, the moment when Gareth Southgate appeared more convinced than ever about how to set his team up, when he could feel clarity, a faith in his instincts. He had picked the team that most fans wanted to see – two progressive No 8s in a 4-3-3 (Phil Foden and Mason Mount) – and England were poor. By the end, Southgate had reverted to 3-4-3 with two central midfield bolts and he doubled down on the approach in this month’s ties, using it at the outset against Albania and even San Marino.

It has reawakened the discussion about whether Southgate risks frittering away the attacking riches at his disposal but, to him, it is not about fantasy; it never has been. It is about stability and balance plus the ability to turn the dial in a progressive direction when required. Expect those tweaks against weaker opposition – Bukayo Saka at left-wing back, for example; Foden or Mount in central midfield. But can it win the very biggest games? Southgate is convinced it can, with the wing-backs fundamental. The talent is certainly there while the experience and ultimate pain of Euro 2020 will stand England in good stead. The excitement is palpable. DH

Core Gareth Values mean double-bolt is a certainty

The journey from 1-1 with Hungary to 5-0 against Albania has surely settled the way England are going to play. Gareth Southgate took a gamble in September, clanking off his trusty roundhead helmet and sending England out in a 4-3-3. This was a kind of Angry England Twitter select XI, with all the fun players on the pitch at the same time. Except, it wasn’t actually fun. England were less, not more fluent. The control Southgate craves wasn’t there. And so for Albania we went back to Core Gareth Values as England fielded a back five plus the double bolt central midfield. The attack was also the default option, Harry and Raheem +1, in this case Phil Foden.

And that is surely it from here. England don’t have many more games before Qatar 2022. The Pickford-Maguire-Rice-Kane spine looks secure. England will play 3-4-3, with Reece James andLuke Chilwell the safe picks as wing-backs. And why not? Objections to Southgate’s achievements tend to be based in either personal animus, politics, or delusion. The players are good, if not obvious world beaters, but England have enjoyed a unique period of modern success. Southgate’s demeanour and methods are the key ingredients. Gareth does Gareth. This is the course. He will stick it out. BR

Greenwood could be a Kane back-up

England have become more technically proficient under Southgate, but they still need to be savvier against the best opponents. Ball retention remains an issue and Southgate has explored ways of improving his midfield during qualifying, although the undisciplined display during the 1-1 draw with Hungary last month was a reminder that playing all the best attacking players is not necessarily a recipe for success. England did not press well after leaving Declan Rice on his own in defensive midfield, with Mason Mount and Phil Foden as the No 8s. The lack of structure alarmed Southgate and he responded by switching from 4-3-3 to 3-4-3 against Albania last week.

A back three can work with the right players. Ben Chilwell and Reece James are excellent attacking wing-backs and Albania were blown away in the first half. The worry is that the system squeezes out one of the creative players and another question will be whether it suits Harry Kane. Southgate will need alternatives if his captain is not firing. He should find space for Mason Greenwood. The good news is that England have an embarrassment of riches in attack. A lot of top forwards are going to miss out and Southgate’s task is to prove that he can come up with the right formula. JS

England are serious contenders to win in Qatar

England have won only 14 knockout games at major tournaments; five of those have been under Gareth Southgate. It’s a mark of his success that they can go to Qatar among the favourites. It could be that the draw is unkind or they have some atrocious luck and England go out in the group or the last 16 having played relatively well but it’s realistic for them to hope for the quarter-finals or beyond. This is not just a young and exciting squad but one that has depth in all positions with the possible exceptions of centre-forward and centre-back.

As to whether England can win, that probably depends both on them being able to manage matches better if they do take the lead against big sides, and also on Southgate responding more quickly when the momentum of a game begins to turn against them. But these are not necessarily fatal flaws: they very nearly won the Euros – had Marcus Rashford’s penalty gone three inches to the right they probably would have. England are at least a serious contender and it’s a long time since that’s been true going into a World Cup. JW

Manager’s choices will be under microscope for a year

For the first time in a generation, perhaps more, England’s men’s team will go into a major tournament with genuine public expectations of victory. Quarter-finals are no longer enough. Semi-finals are no longer enough. That will add its own quantum of anxiety to Gareth Southgate’s team as they approach the run-in to Qatar: the knowledge that every little fissure, every selection quandary, every drab friendly victory will be scoured and scrutinised for signs that England are anything less than immaculate.

The problem is that on the pitch, very little has actually changed since the summer. We already knew that England are brilliant at swatting aside weaker teams and yet curiously vulnerable against better opposition, as the draws against Hungary and Poland proved. We already knew that Southgate tends towards caution in big games, a strategy that exposes them to the vicissitudes of luck, big moments and penalties. We already knew that England lack the depth of France, the fluidity of Spain or the solidity of Brazil. But you can bet that over a giddy next 12 months, we’ll all find various ways to forget. JL