England's fast bowling crisis deepens with Saqib Mahmood ruled out for the season

Brendon McCullum will pick his first England Test squad on Tuesday and it will not take long for reality to sink in following the news Saqib Mahmood will miss the rest of the season.

Mahmood has a stress fracture of his back and no date has been set for a return. It is a crushing blow for the 25-year-old just as he was on the threshold of breaking through in both Test and white ball cricket

For England, it stretches their thin fast bowling reserves even further and leaves them heavily reliant on James Anderson and Stuart Broad once again.

Mahmood joins Jofra Archer (elbow), Olly Stone (back), Mark Wood (elbow) and Chris Woakes (shoulder and knee) as unavailable for selection. Yorkshire’s Matthew Fisher, who made his Test debut alongside Mahmood in Barbados in March, is also expected to miss the rest of the season with a stress fracture in his back.

Ollie Robinson’s stamina for a five-day Test is unknown yet again after he laboured through Sussex’s Championship match against Leicestershire with food poisoning restricting him to one over in the first innings and seven in the second (four as an off spinner).

He could still be named in the Test squad with the proviso he proves his fitness, possibly for a select XI against New Zealand at Chelmsford from May 26 given Sussex are not involved in the next round of matches.

McCullum, Ben Stokes and Rob Key, with input from performance director Mo Bobat, and chief scout James Taylor, will pick their first squad on Tuesday via Zoom (McCullum is still at the IPL) for the opening Test of the summer against New Zealand on June 2 with injuries forcing them to turn to new blood.

Durham’s Matthew Potts has emerged as the form bowler this summer, and his seven for 40 against Glamorgan on Sunday all but sealed a place. His county colleague and fellow quick Brydon Carse could also be considered for a first call-up, although the match against Glamorgan was his first since recovering from a serious knee injury sustained on the Lions tour to Australia before Christmas. It could just be a week too late for him. Jamie Overton, quicker than his twin Craig and capable of speeds over 90mph, is uncapped and another option.

Mahmood broke into the England team in the Caribbean taking six wickets at 23 in two Tests, bowling well with the old ball and looking like England’s most threatening seamer.

He showed character with the bat, top scoring with 49 after a first innings collapse in Grenada. Mahmood turned down the chance to be a replacement player in the IPL to play Championship cricket for Lancashire but has managed just one match.

He missed the Roses match last week complaining of a stiff back. Further investigations revealed a “lumbar stress fracture”. No timeframe has been set for his return.

The two Tests in the Caribbean took their toll on Fisher and Mahmood, particularly the comatose surface in Barbados where England were worn down by Kraigg Brathwaite’s marathon century. Fisher has played one game for Yorkshire since then.

Jamie Overton has helped Surrey to the top of the Division One table with 16 wickets at 22.75. After an injury struck first summer at the Oval, following his departure from Somerset, he tweaked his action and shortened his run-up which he believes has given him more control.

At 28 he should be reaching his peak as a bowler and with few genuine pace options, he could be given the chance to finally fulfill long-held potential. Craig Overton was below Test class in the Caribbean on flat pitches but is the leading English-qualified seam bowler in the first division with 22 wickets, although he too is suffering from niggles he carried all winter.

For McCullum and Stokes the decisions are not just limited to the bowling attack. There are vacancies at three and five to fill too. Jonny Bairstow has remained at the IPL and they will have to decide if he can be considered with no red-ball cricket this season.

McCullum was in a similar predicament as a player in 2015 when he had only two days preparation for the Lord’s Test due to IPL commitments and tried to slog his way into form in the first innings, making a quickfire 42, but was bowled first ball in the second.

With Stokes dropping to six and Joe Root at four, Bairstow would have been considered at five or seven, in place of Ben Foakes. It seems likely Foakes will be given another series, his first at home. That leaves Harry Brook, the leading English-qualified run scorer with 758, finding form at the right time for a Test debut, probably at five.

Zak Crawley and Alex Lees will be given another chance but an option could be to recall Sam Robson after eight years out of Test cricket. Robson has made centuries in his last two Championship matches, and could open with Lees, allowing Crawley to bat at No 3, probably his best position in the side.

Nothing would sum up a new era better than England picking a leg spinner. Jack Leach was solid but predictable in the West Indies, where Parkinson carried the drinks again. But the Lancashire leggie is the second highest wicket taker in the first division (23 at 23.74).