English Premier League betting preview: Liverpool is a big favorite over Arsenal

The EPL is back from yet another international break.

The third international break of the young season is now over and teams are set to play their 12th round of fixtures over the weekend. With star players returning from World Cup qualifying duty, there may be some different starting lineups on Saturday and Sunday. Will that mean a couple of upsets?

All odds are from BetMGM and all games are on Saturday unless noted.

Leicester City vs. Chelsea (over/under 2.5 goals)

• Leicester City (+375)

• Chelsea (-135)

• Tie (+260)

Chelsea has a three-point lead in the league after tying 1-1 with Burnley before the international break. Leicester City tied with Leeds 1-1 as well —that game broke a three-game winning streak in the EPL. Our gut says tie, our brain says Chelsea.

Wolves vs. West Ham (2.5)

• Wolves (+190)

• West Ham (+145)

• Tie (+225)

West Ham enters as a slight favorite despite a six-week EPL win streak that has carried the Hammers to third in the league. Coincidentally, Wolves’ last loss was also to Brentford. We think West Ham continues the win streak.

Aston Villa vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (2.5)

• Aston Villa (+150)

• Brighton & Hove (+180)

• Tie (+230)

Villa fired manager Dean Smith before the international break and this is Steven Gerrard’s first game in charge. That’s why we’re going to go with Graham Poitter’s Brighton side here. It may take Gerrard a game or two, especially on the heels of the international break.

Newcastle vs. Brentford (2.5)

• Newcastle (+160)

• Brentford (+165)

• Tie (+240)

Newcastle finally has a new manager in former Bournemouth boss Eddie Howe. We’re going with Brentford here.

Burnley vs. Crystal Palace (2.5)

• Burnley (+170)

• Palace (+160)

• Tie (+225)

Burnley has eight points in the league — five have come over its last three games. Palace, meanwhile, has the same amount of points as Leicester and Everton. We’re going with a tie.

Norwich City vs. Southampton (2.5)

• Norwich (+260)

• Southampton (+100)

• Tie (+250)

The aforementioned Dean Smith is now the Norwich boss after the team fired Daniel Farke after its first win of the season. Southampton is a better side and should get the three points.

Watford vs. Manchester United (2.5)

• Watford (+500)

• Manchester United (-200)

• Tie (+350)

Go over 2.5 goals. We’re done trying to figure out Manchester United as long as Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is in charge.

Liverpool vs. Arsenal (3.5)

• Liverpool (-225)

• Arsenal (+500)

• Tie (+375)

This is a big odds spread for a game between teams separated by two points in the table. Liverpool’s press could overwhelm Arsenal. We’re not going to overthink it.

Manchester City vs. Everton (3.5) [Sunday]

• Manchester City (-650)

• Everton (+1650)

• Tie (+700)

This game is giving us some Crystal Palace vibes and we’re wondering if it’s worth continuing to bet massive long shots at The Etihad because of the potential payoff. Manchester City should win the match, but we’d go with under 3.5 goals if we had to make a pick.

Tottenham vs. Leeds (2.5) [Sunday]

• Tottenham (-145)

• Leeds (+375)

• Tie (+290)

Leeds has just 11 points this season but has gotten points in each of its last three games. Tottenham has had some time under new manager Antonio Conte and it will be fascinating to see how they line up to defend Leeds’ tenacity. Under 2.5 goals here.