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Euro 2020 qualifying guide: How are Home Nations looking and which of the big teams might struggle to make it?

Euro 2020 is the first Championship in 44 years where the hosts must qualify - getty images
Euro 2020 is the first Championship in 44 years where the hosts must qualify - getty images

Qualifying for the 2020 European Championship starts on Thursday. And what makes this tournament unique is that it will be the first Euros in 44 years where the hosts must qualify. As a result, some will miss out.

This is because the tournament finals will be spread across 12 cities - London, Glasgow, Dublin, Rome, Baku, St Petersburg, Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Bucharest, Bilbao, Munich and Budapest - and among the big-name hosts, Italy and Germany need to shake off poor recent form to reach the competition proper.

England are the main hosts with seven games at Wembley, including the 2020 semi-finals and final.

So what are the chances of one of the favourites failing to qualify? And how are the Home Nations looking?

ENGLAND

Upcoming fixtures

Friday, March 22: England v Czech Republic, 7.45pm

Monday, March 25: Montenegro v England, 7.45pm

What are England's chances?

England manager Gareth Southgate is relying on young players even more than usual as qualifying begins.

His squad for the Czech Republic game on Friday and Montenegro on Monday contains two players born in 2000 - Jadon Sancho and newcomer Callum Hudson-Odoi - and just one born in the 1980s, back-up goalkeeper Tom Heaton.

After making it to the semi-finals of the World Cup and returning to beat Spain and Croatia to reach this summer's inaugural Nations League finals, last year will go down as a memorable one for Southgate's side.

However, that tournament, plus the further success in the Nations League group stages, will put a weight of expectation on Southgate's young squad.

And the manager has hit out at the "mess" he faces in trying to prepare his squad for this summer's Nations League finals thanks to English clubs' success in Europe.

England play Holland in Guimaraes, Portugal, for a place in the Nations League final on June 6, just five days after the Champions League final in Madrid.

"It could be a mess," said Southgate. "Let's say two of our teams made it to the Champions League final, then we wouldn't see them, at best, until the Monday before we play on the Thursday. So, 'good luck with that', as an Aussie coach I know says."

Hopefully England won't need to rely on the Nations League because they should top a Euro 2020 qualifying group containing Czech Republic (ranked 44th in the world), Montenegro (ranked 46th), Bulgaria (48th) and Kosovo (130th).

 

SCOTLAND

Upcoming fixtures

Thursday, March 21: Kazakhstan v Scotland, 3pm

Sunday, March 24: San Marino v Scotland, 5pm

What are Scotland's chances?

Scotland, like England, have the safety net of a play-off place courtesy of the Nations League.

Play-off places for Euro 2020 are decided by how well teams performed in last year's Nations League group games and Scotland were one of the 16 teams who won their groups last year.

It means the Scots are guaranteed a Euro 2020 play-off place, against teams of a similar level to themselves, if they fail to finish in the top two places in these upcoming European Championship qualifying stages.

These are the teams guaranteed a play-off place at least:

League A: Portugal, England, Switzerland, Netherlands

League B: Ukraine, Denmark, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden

League C: Finland, Norway, Scotland, Serbia

League D: Georgia, Belarus, Macedonia, Kosovo

Scotland are tipped to finish third behind Belgium and Russia in their Euro 2020 qualifying group, but there is every chance they could finish above the Russians who are ranked 10 places below them in the Fifa standings. "I believe we will have a chance," said manager Alex McLeish.

 

WALES

Upcoming fixtures

Sunday, March 24: Wales v Slovakia, 2pm

What are Wales' chances?

When Wales were drawn in a group with World Cup finalists Croatia, Slovakia, Hungary and Azerbaijan, manager Ryan Giggs said, "It could be better, it could be worse," adding that "it is masses better" they are in a five-team group. They will certainly be targeting a second-place finish behind Croatia.

The really good news for Wales is that Gareth Bale, his country's record goalscorer, is fit after turning his ankle playing for Real Madrid recently. Bale scored and played the full 90 minutes of Real's 2-0 La Liga win against Celta Vigo on Saturday.

It was Ben Woodburn, though, who emerged as the last-gasp hero on Wednesday night as Wales warmed up for the start of their 2020 European Championship campaign with a 1-0 friendly victory over Trinidad and Tobago in Wrexham.

It was far from convincing, but Giggs - who fielded a shadow side and rested Bale - will be grateful for the win, his fourth from 10 games, as Wales head into a tournament that the former Manchester United star says will define his time in charge.

Trinidad and Tobago are ranked 93rd in the world - 74 places lower than Wales - and the Soca Warriors fielded players from little-known clubs such as Churchill Brothers, Lansing Ignite and Memphis 901.

 

Republic of Ireland

Upcoming fixtures

Saturday, March 23: Gibraltar v Republic of Ireland, 5pm

Tuesday, March 26: Republic of Ireland v Georgia, 7.45pm

What are the Republic's chances?

The Republic of Ireland got fortunate when they should have been drawn in Group C alongside Holland and Germany - instead of Northern Ireland - but tournament rules mean only two host countries can be in one Euro 2020 group. That meant they got placed with Switzerland, Denmark, Georgia and Gibraltar instead. Talk about luck of the Irish.

"There was a collective sigh of relief not being in the other group but it's hardly going to be easy," said new manager Mick McCarthy.

McCarthy has told his Ireland players to forget a desperately disappointing 12 months as he attempts to usher in a new era.

The Republic won only one of the nine internationals they played in 2018, a return which ultimately proved fatal for McCarthy's predecessor, Martin O'Neill.

First up in qualifying is a trip to Gibraltar which should hold few fears for the Irish - they scored 11 goals without reply when the sides met home and away during the Euro 2016 qualifying campaign.

However, while a flying start should be guaranteed, they will still face a tough ask getting out of a group that contains Denmark and Switzerland.

 

Northern Ireland

Upcoming fixtures

Thursday, March 21: Northern Ireland v Estonia, 7.45pm

Sunday, March 24: Northern Ireland v Belarus, 7.45pm

What are Northern Ireland's chances?

Slim to none. They are in a rut having lost all four of their Nations League matches and finishing rock bottom in a group containing Bosnia and Austria.

And to rub salt into wounds, they got moved into the Euro 2020 qualifying Group of Death alongside Holland and Germany because of their neighbours.

 

What about Europe's other leading nations?

Germany

Few big teams need to head into the Euro qualifiers with trepidation, but for Germany the pressure is already on.

After a terrible 2018, during which they crashed out of the World Cup and were relegated in the inaugural Nations League after finishing bottom of their group behind Holland and France, manager Joachim Low has wielded the axe.

"Some players now have to take the next step and take it up a level," Low said, while introducing a revamped squad that is missing Bayern Munich trio Thomas Mueller, Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng. That leaves captain Manuel Neuer and Toni Kroos as the only prominent survivors from the squad that won the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.

In a first glimpse at this new-look Germany, Leon Goretzka came off the bench to equalise as they snatched a 1-1 draw with Serbia in their international friendly in Wolfsburg on Wednesday night.

Holland

The Dutch are on a high after winning a Nations League group that contained France and Germany. Holland are also celebrating Ajax's Champions League victory over Real Madrid. Four players from that Ajax team could face Belarus on Thursday and then Germany, including young stars Matthijs de Ligt and Frenkie de Jong.

In a group that contains Belarus, Estonia and Northern Ireland, the Oranje should qualify comfortably. Their main objective will be to finish above the Germans... again.

And they have a fall-back. Because they topped their Nations League group, they are automatically in the play-offs should they need it.

Portugal

European champions Portugal have Cristiano Ronaldo back. He sat out the entire Nations League to give him time to adjust to life in Serie A with Juventus.

Ronaldo, with 85 goals, is the second-top scorer in international history, 24 behind Iran icon Ali Daei.

Even without CR7 they topped their Nations League group, which contained Italy and Poland, which means they are certain of a play-off place at worst. With him back, they should have no problems seeing off Lithuania, Luxembourg, Ukraine and Serbia.

France

There's a rematch from the 2016 European Championship as World Cup champions France host Iceland in qualifying on Monday in Group H.

France are the favourites to win Euro 2020, although they lost their most recent competitive game - 2-0 to Holland in the Nations League.

They should, however, have absolutely no issues negotiating their way out of a group containing Albania, Andorra, Iceland, Moldova and Turkey.

Spain

Spain manager Luis Enrique takes charge of a qualifying campaign for the first time, but they should cruise through a group which contains Faroe Islands, Malta, Romania, Norway and Sweden.

Enrique is looking to stamp his mark and named a much-changed Spain squad for the upcoming qualifying fixtures last Friday as Isco, Saul Niguez and Koke were all left out while the 33-year-old Jesus Navas earned a surprise recall.

Italy

Like Southgate, Italy manager Roberto Mancini is looking towards youth in a bid to revitalise his country's fortunes. Nicolo Zaniolo is one of two teenagers in the Azzurri squad. Juventus forward Moise Kean, the other, turned 19 last month. There are also five players under 22.

Italy had an awful World Cup and finished second in their Nations League group, behind Portugal.

"What's interesting in the league (Serie A) is that, compared to four or five months ago, the youngsters are playing more and so they have improved," Mancini said. "This is a positive thing for them, for Italian football, for the Italy team and the under-21 team. I called up a few more players so I can evaluate them and because I don't know the conditions of all the lads. I also had to leave some out with great sadness."

Even with such a callow squad, Italy should have too much class in a group containing Armenia, Bosnia, Finland, Greece and Liechtenstein.

Croatia

Beaten World Cup finalists. However, they are an ageing team and the likes of Luke Modric (33), Ivan Rakitic (31) and Mario Mandzukic (32) are nearing the end.

They finished bottom of their Nations League group behind England and Spain but should finish top of their Euro 2020 qualifying group which has Azerbaijan, Hungary, Slovakia and Wales in it.

Belgium

Fifa's top-ranked side. In Scotland's group along with the likes of Russia, Cyprus, Kazakhstan and San Marino. And in their ranks they have Eden Hazard.

They finished second in their Nations league group behind Switzerland on goal difference. But. If a team with a Nations League play-off spot qualifies automatically, that spot goes to the next-best ranked team in the same Nations League tier. For example, Belgium will go to the play-offs if they don't qualify automatically but at least one of Switzerland, Portugal, the Netherlands and England do. Which should happen. But then again, Belgium should top their group anyway.