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Exclusive: Tories Facing 'Doom' As Voters Stay Progressive For Longer
Are Rishi Sunak's electoral hopes going up in flames?
The Tories are facing “doom” because voters are holding on to their liberal views for longer than ever before, according to new research.
On issues like LGBTQ+ rights, Brexit, public services and the cost of living crisis, a gap is opening up between over-60s and the rest of the population.
The findings are based on a survey of 8,000 British adults by Portland Communications.
Gabriel Milland, a partner at Portland, said: “Younger people and older people think about things in a very different way.
“But one of the surprising things about this research is that middle-aged people are in many ways more similar to their children than they are to their own parents.
“People in their 50s are supposed to be drifting into middle age conservatism. But what we found is that they are hanging on to ‘younger’ views much longer.”
The research found that on whether they feel “proud” to be British, just 58% of 35 to 59-year-olds say they are, compared to 70% of over-60s.
And on re-joining the EU, just 39% of 45 to 59-year-olds say they would vote against it, compared to 56% of those aged 60 and over.
Asked to place themselves on a political scale, more forty and fifty-somethings said they were liberal (31%) than said they were conservative (20%).
But among over-60s, 27% said they were conservative, compared to 22% who were liberal.
In another worrying sign for the Tories, among 35 to 44-year-olds, 37% said they were liberal and just 17% were conservative.
Writing for HuffPost UK, Milland said: “On a range of issues, the views of 45 to 59-year-olds are much more like the young or the population overall than they are to those aged 60 and over.
“The British Election Study graphs of the last three elections, and many elections before that, show a steady increase in the Tory vote as people get older - and a decline in Labour support.
“Without the ‘grey’ vote, lumping the middle-aged in with those much older, there would not have been Tories in government since 2010.
“But if this coalition of the merely-getting-on-a-bit and the wrinkly is in the process of breaking down, then that spells doom for the Tories.”
Milland also said that Tory plans to increase the retirement age could further damage the party’s prospects among younger voters.
“Labour will see this as a development they could do the Tories real damage on,” Milland said.
The findings echo those of a separate study which also found that millennials are not becoming more conservative as they get older.
