If there's a theme for pick 'em pools this week, it's don't overlook favorites. Season records only mean so much, as recent trends might matter more. For survivor pools, it's all about balancing current win odds with future values. Fortunately, the experts from TeamRankings are once again here to help with tips and strategy advice for your Week 14 NFL picks.
Armed with the information below, you can make calculated bets on high-value Week 14 picks in your football pools and avoid trendy upset picks that aren't worth the risk. TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in survivor pools. Since 2017, TeamRankings subscribers have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings.
Week 14 NFL Pick 'em Pool Tips, Analysis
Review of last week's pick 'em analysis
Last week, we discussed three teams: Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee. At the time we wrote the article, Tampa Bay was a toss-up and Tennessee was the underdog. By Sunday, all three ended up being the favored team. The public was picking against each of them over 60 percent of the time.
While the Browns struggled against Pittsburgh, both Tampa Bay and Tennessee won. As a result, the public averaged 1.26 wins across those three games, while taking all three unpopular favorites netted us two wins.
Value picks for NFL Week 14 pick 'em pools
Getting the biggest edge in your NFL pick 'em pool requires knowing not only every team's win odds (i.e. how risky of a pick it is), but also how popular of a pick it is. Why? Because when you pick less popular teams and they win, you'll shoot up your office pool standings.
Based on win odds and pick popularity, the three teams below offer some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 14 picks from your pool opponents. To get all our pick recommendations for your pool -- customized for its size, rules, and prize structure -- check out our Football Pick 'em Picks product.
Note: Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our football picks product updates multiple times per day.
Week 14 features three favorites that the public is picking at a lower rate than their chance to win. These types of teams are as close as you can get to “no brainer picks” in NFL pick’em contests, since both win odds and value are on your side.
Tennessee Titans (at Oakland)
The Tennessee Titans have won five of their last six games, corresponding with the team benching Marcus Mariota at quarterback and going with Ryan Tannehill. Oakland has lost their last two games by a combined 62 points, and have now been outscored by 97 points on the season.
So it's a little surprising that the public is still somewhat enamored with the Raiders, picking them 61% of the time this week. Oakland is a deceiving 6-6 (most teams that get outscored by that much have far worse records) and the public may be slow in responding to Tennessee. Our predictive ratings have the Titans at No. 12 and Oakland at No. 26, separated by 7.7 points on a neutral field. Tennessee is favored by 3 points, and our models give them a 64-percent chance of winning.
You can take the betting favorite, and a team that is playing much better of late, and gain ground on about 60% of your pool if the Titans win.
Los Angeles Chargers (at Jacksonville)
The Jacksonville Jaguars are another team going in the wrong direction, and the public does not seem to be willing to fully jump off them. The public is taking the Jaguars 59% of the time, while the Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this game.
Jacksonville has lost four games in a row, all of them by at least 17 points. They benched Nick Foles at halftime of the last game and re-inserted Gardner Minshew at quarterback.
Part of the reason that the public is favoring the Jaguars in this one is that the Chargers are also 4-8, and have been a disappointment. But unlike Jacksonville, the Chargers have been in pretty much every game. The Chargers are an amazing 2-8 in one-score games this year.
Dallas Cowboys (at Chicago)
You've probably seen the factoid that the Dallas Cowboys haven't beaten a team with a winning record this year, and that continued on Thanksgiving when they played dreadfully at home against Buffalo in a game the entire nation watched.
Well, with Chicago sitting at 6-6, that will factoid will still hold true regardless of the outcome of this game. The Cowboys can either get criticized for only beating bad teams if they win, or losing to good teams if Chicago beats them.
Dallas is favored by 2.5 points in Chicago, with 57% win odds, and the public is taking the Bears more than half the time (53%) right now, so there is value on the Cowboys.
Week 14 NFL Survivor Pool Pick Tips, Analysis
Review of last week's survivor pick analysis
With the public going heavily on Carolina, we recommended the Chiefs to over half of the remaining entries of our subscribers. So, for the second time in a month, over 60 percent of the public was wiped out with big upsets while our recommendations survived at a much higher rate.
The public survived at a 37-percent rate in Week 13 while our recommendations survived 70 percent of the time. Cumulatively, based on elimination rates each week, only about 0.6 percent of public entries are estimated to be alive compared to 4.8 percent for our recommendations. That amounts to a survival rate about eight times as high as the public.
Week 14 survivor pool breakdown
Green Bay, Houston, and Minnesota lead the way in survivor popularity for Week 14. The Green Bay Packers are the most popular choice (39-percent pick popularity) hosting Washington and have the highest win odds of the week at 87 percent.
The Minnesota Vikings have win odds (85 percent) almost as good as Green Bay, as they play a Detroit team starting rookie David Blough at quarterback. They are also far less popular (10 percent). That’s because Minnesota has been heavily used in several weeks, including being used by over 50 percent of the public back in Week 8. The Vikings have the highest expected value because of their high win odds and low popularity, but they're not available to many entries.
The Houston Texans popularity has climbed to 24 percent this week. The Texans are a tier below the Packers and Vikings in win odds with a 79-percent chance of winning against Denver. They also have very low future value and are the most likely available team this week among the top three most popular, for many entries.
As always, other options this week might be the best play for your specific pool. If you need help deciding who to use this week, check out our NFL Survivor Picks product for customized advice for you pool.
Get our Week 14 Survivor Pool pick recommendation
Once you know the best value opportunities of NFL Week 14, you can increase your odds to win your pool by making educated gambles on them. But there are a lot of potential decisions to make. Not all of them will make sense for your specific pool(s), and it takes a lot of data and math to get to the right answers. Fortunately, we've built technology to do all the analytical heavy lifting for you. You can use the links above to learn more about our data-driven game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools.