Fallout: Losing Jordy Nelson

Now that Jordy Nelson (ACL) is out for the season, the entire fantasy community is scrambling to figure out how the Packers’ offense will shift his leftover workload to their other weapons on offense. The most immediate and obvious answer for the Packers’ loss is second-year wideout, Davante Adams.

However, there are other less apparent impacts besides Green Bay trying to fill in the void of Nelson’s lost production. Discerning where the Packers’ go next is tricky, but with Aaron Rodgers at the helm their offense is still primed for efficiency and fantasy production. Let’s try to fill in the blanks.

Impact: Aaron Rodgers

I’m hesitant to say Rodgers’ fantasy outlook changes much without Jordy Nelson in the lineup. Since Nelson became a full-time starter in 2011, Rodgers has played just four games without his go-to target in the last four seasons. Albeit a small sample, Rodgers’ per-game fantasy output in those four games dipped by just 4.2%. He still averaged a handsome 7.4 yards per attempt in that handful of games, but that is below his career average of 8.2 YPA.

There may not be much useful information to derive from that tiny sample, but there also isn’t much evidence suggesting Rodgers fantasy stock takes a significant blow with Nelson out. Rodgers’ career per-game fantasy finishes in 4-point per passing touchdown leagues has been as follows: QB1, QB4, QB2, QB1, QB2, QB1 and QB2.

Impact: Eddie Lacy

Eddie Lacy was a sure-fire top-5 selection in all re-draft fantasy formats before Green Bay lost Nelson. The same bell rings true post-injury. In fact, Lacy’s stock may get a very slight boost from the news. Consider that Nelson saw 156 targets last year (28 of which came in the red zone) and Davante Adams won’t jump in and immediately “replace” Nelson’s production. Lacy received 44 targets in 2013 and 56 last year and while he won’t subsequently become a 90-plus target back, it’s not a stretch to believe a few more targets trickle down his path in 2015.

Regardless, Green Bay has run more plays inside of the 20-yard line than any team in the league over the past two seasons and they tied for 7th in total red zone rushing touchdowns (27) during that span. Lacy is still as good of a bet as any to lead the league in rushing touchdowns. I wouldn’t contend taking him first overall this year.

Impact: Randall Cobb

Of course this operates in hindsight, but I’d wager GM Ted Thompson is very happy Cobb re-signed and stayed home back in March.

Retrospection aside, Randall Cobb ran 87.3% of his routes from the slot last year and that is likely to remain unchanged without Nelson on the field. The main change may come in the form of Cobb’s target share. Cobb saw 24.4% of Green Bay’s targets last year and 25.7% of all red zone targets. While those shares account for close to a quarter of Rodgers’ looks in both instances, there’s now room for a little bit of growth as Nelson’s 27.6% target share is unaccounted for. Just 25-years-old, Cobb is a top-15 pick in fantasy as Aaron Rodgers’ main target.

Impact: Davante Adams

First, some background on Adams’ rookie year: despite seeing 66 targets from the NFL’s most efficient quarterback last year Adams only scored 1.62 PPR fantasy points per target, finishing 57th out of 90 qualified receivers. To reiterate: Adams was a 21-year-old (turned 22 December) rookie in 2014. Of course Adams can improve in his second year; but averaging fewer yards per route run (0.96) than Brian Hartline (0.99) last year with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback is less than stellar.

That might not matter in 2015.

Adams’ average draft position spiked from 102nd (mid-9th) to 50th overall (early-5th) once Nelson’s torn ACL was confirmed on Monday. As mentioned above, Adams will not immediately slide into Nelson’s 156 vacant targets, but he’ll be the main outside receiver in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense. That has its perks. In his seven seasons as a starter, Rodgers has supported two top-24 wide receivers in per-game PPR output five times.

Now with a massive role ahead of him, Adams must step up. Overnight he went from WR4/5 in fantasy to a WR2 with huge upside in the 5th-6th round. Drafting Adams anywhere past the WR24 range in ADP should be heralded a steal.

Impact: Jeff Janis and Ty Montgomery

One of the fantasy community’s favorites, Jeff Janis is a 98th percentile SPARQ athlete with 4.4 speed and is the lone receiver on the Packers roster with a body-type that could hypothetically fill the loss that will be felt on Jordy Nelson’s deep targets. Nelson commanded 52.1% of the Packers targets 20-plus yards down field in 2014 and had a 36.5% share of deep targets in 2013.

There are still two preseason games left to determine who will start Week 1, but 3rd round pick Ty Montgomery is getting the first crack at the Packers No. 3 gig opposite Davante Adams.

Last year Davante Adams only had two top-24 (WR2) scoring weeks as the Packers’ No. 3 receiver – but a 12-18% target share in the Packers’ highly efficient offense has its place in the fantasy world. At the moment, Montgomery and Janis are both in the WR5/6 range but that could change if one of the receivers runs away with the job in the coming weeks. Montgomery’s average draft position is at 189 overall while Janis is being drafted 180th on average.

Impact: Richard Rodgers

The second-year tight end out of California will likely see an increased role inside of the red zone this year and will without a doubt have a bigger presence in the Packers’ offense in 2015. Rodgers played just 44.7% of snaps and received six targets inside of the 20-yard line last year, but he passed Andrew Quarless on the Packers’ depth chart in mid-August. Rodgers is now a mid-TE2 with definite streaming appeal.