Fantasy Basketball: Target these 2022-23 rookies in drafts next season

By Jason Shebilske, RotoWire

Special to Yahoo Sports

We've been checking in on the 2022 NBA rookie class periodically this fantasy season, and as things draw to a close, it's important to highlight some of the top rookies in this year's unique class and offer insight regarding where they could land in next year's fantasy basketball drafts.

Walker Kessler, Jalen Williams, Keegan Murray, Tari Eason and Jabari Smith currently rank inside the top 130 in nine-cat, total value. However, top picks like Paolo Banchero and Jaden Ivey have shortcomings that have driven down their values.

With two and a half weeks remaining in the regular season, several rookies are amid late-season surges. In the final rookie report of the year, we'll examine the top rookies and how they fared overall during their first professional season. We'll also look at where they may fall in fantasy drafts for the 2023-24 season.

TOP VALUES

Walker Kessler, Jazz

If the NBA had an award for Most Improved Rookie, Kessler and Jalen Williams would likely be firmly at the top of the list. Kessler had an inconsistent role off the bench early in the season but earned a starting role shortly after the start of the calendar year and has been a consistent threat for double-doubles recently. His role has solidified since the Jazz traded Jarred Vanderbilt to the Lakers, and Kessler is shooting 72 percent from the floor this season while tying for fourth in the NBA with 2.3 blocks per game. He ranks inside the top 50 in nine-cat, total value and will likely be picked in the earlier rounds of fantasy drafts next year.

Jalen Williams, Thunder

Williams has developed into one of the most well-rounded players in this year's class and has been a consistent contributor recently following a shaky start to the year. He missed two games in early March due to a wrist injury but has picked up right where he left off following his brief absence. The 21-year-old hasn't shown as much scoring upside since returning, but he's been productive in rebounds, assists and steals. Looking ahead to next season, Williams should maintain a prominent role in Oklahoma City, but he'll also have to deal with the return of Chet Holmgren. Even so, Williams looks like a major hit for the Thunder and will be a popular mid-round pick next season.

Paolo Banchero, Magic

Banchero had the hottest start to the season of any rookie and is the clear favorite to win Rookie of the Year. While his production dipped slightly for most of February, he's amid a late-season surge that should entice fantasy managers ahead of next season. The 20-year-old has just one double-double over his last 10 appearances but has averaged 21.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 4.1 assists in 35.3 minutes per game over that stretch — all up from his season-long averages. Although Banchero's field-goal percentage and turnovers decrease his ranking in nine-cat, he should improve in both of those areas as he continues to develop. Banchero is on pace to become just the fifth rookie since 1980 to average at least 20.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game (Michael Jordan, Grant Hill, Blake Griffin, Luka Doncic).

Keegan Murray, Kings

Murray played his way into a starting role early in the 2022-23 campaign but has shown signs of inconsistency down the stretch. He's been held under 10 points in four of his last 10 appearances and hasn't yet posted a double-double in March. However, the Iowa product doesn't turn the ball over much, and his 2.5 three-pointers made per game are tied for sixth among all forwards this season. Murray is still one of the top rookies from the 2023 class and has the makings of a reliable, high-floor fantasy player for years to come.

Jabari Smith Jr., Rockets

Following an inconsistent start to the season, Smith has had plenty of playing time down the stretch and has posted double-doubles in four of his last seven appearances, averaging 18.3 points and 8.9 rebounds in 37.4 minutes per game while playing over 35 minutes in six of those seven outings. The 19-year-old has mostly been a disappointment this season, but the Rockets have been a disaster from the jump, and that's likely hindered his development. As a result, Smith should be available at a discount in 2023-24 drafts, but it wouldn't be a surprise if he makes a significant sophomore leap.

Jaden Ivey, Pistons

Ivey missed three games in mid-March due to health and safety protocols, but he's been effective over his three games since returning to the court. The Purdue product has been reliable as a scorer this season and has shown glimpses of upside as a passer, but he's still displaying signs of inconsistency in secondary categories. Ivey will also have to share backcourt production with Cade Cunningham next season, who missed most of this year with a lower leg injury but projects to return to health during the offseason. While Ivey should inherently improve from Year 1 to Year 2, the return of Cunningham — plus the arrival of another high-lottery pick — will complicate things.

SLEEPERS

Tari Eason, Rockets

Although Eason continues to appear mainly off the bench for the Rockets behind fellow rookie Jabari Smith, the LSU product has had consistent playing time and has narrowly worked his way into the top 100 rankings in nine-cat, total value. It remains unclear why the Rockets haven't given him more of a look, but he's the type of young player whose stat profile should lend itself well to fantasy basketball going forward. As is the case in Detroit, Houston's draft and offseason could largely determine how large of a role Eason steps into in Year 2.

Bennedict Mathurin, Pacers

Mathurin took on a starting role Monday against the Hornets following his four-game absence due to an ankle injury but has appeared mainly off the bench this year. The 20-year-old is unreliable in secondary categories but has been productive in the scoring column, averaging 16.7 points per game this season. It wouldn't be surprising to see Mathurin maintain a bench role next season since Buddy Hield still has one more year on his contract with Indiana. The No. 6 overall pick has shown plenty of promise as a rookie, but at this point in his development, he's tracking as a better real-life player than fantasy asset.

Jeremy Sochan, Spurs

Sochan has dealt with a knee injury in recent weeks, and the Spurs have given him plenty of days off as they rest strong contributors down the stretch. The 19-year-old has appeared in just three of the team's last eight games, but he's been relatively productive when on the court. He's posted two double-doubles over his last five appearances and has averaged 14.2 points and 6.5 rebounds in 25.4 minutes per game over 11 outings since the start of February. Sochan doesn't rack up many blocks or steals, but his production as a scorer and rebounder makes him a late-round and deep-league target next year, especially if he can take another step during the offseason.

Jalen Duren, Pistons

Health and inconsistency have been concerns for Duren, who has missed seven of Detroit's last 13 matchups. The 13th overall pick has posted three double-doubles over his past five appearances but still has plenty of stat lines in which he has single-digit marks in the scoring and rebounding columns. While Duren saw some time as a starter earlier in the year, it wouldn't be surprising to see him play off the bench to begin the 2023-24 season since James Wiseman will remain under contract. The Pistons still have to sort out Isaiah Stewart's long-term role, as well. The Memphis product still has a ton of long-term upside, but, like Ivey, team context will ultimately determine his ceiling for 2023-24.