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Fantasy Football Week 7 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

dalton del don
Fantasy analyst
·11-min read

Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Many starts and sits are obvious too, so we will instead focus on fringe options in this column, the ones that take real thought. Good luck with your Week 7 lineups!

Smith easily leads the league in passing yards and attempts, but he’s tied for 19th in touchdowns. Smith ranks third in passes inside the 5 this season, and he’s somehow converted just two of 15 end-zone targets (fourth-most) into scores, so he’s due for touchdown regression. Seattle ranks first in pass rate over expectation and neutral pass rate inside the 10-yard line. Smith is worth starting against an Atlanta defense with the league’s second-lowest pressure rate in a fast-paced matchup with a 51.5-point total.

Smith's top target, DK Metcalf, is a borderline top-five WR this week.

Pollard saw a 90% snap rate and 12-of-13 RB opportunities in the second half last week after Tyjae Spears departed with a hamstring injury. Spears is out this week, and Tennessee gets a Buffalo defense ceding the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs. Pollard is one of just three backs averaging more than 4.0 yards after contact per attempt, as he continues to look more explosive the further removed from TightRope surgery.

Sit Calvin Ridley, who has a tough matchup and can’t be trusted with Mason Rudolph starting for an injured Will Levis.

Njoku’s ceiling is limited by Deshaun Watson, but he’ll see increased targets with Amari Cooper traded to Buffalo. Njoku led all tight ends in yards after the catch last year, when he finished the season with four straight top-three TE weekly finishes. Njoku should be healthier now, and the Browns will be forced to pass frequently on Sunday. The Bengals have a low-pressure rate and have yielded the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.

Dell saw a season-high 28% target share with Nico Collins sidelined last week. It remains unclear just how healthy he is, but Dell can remain fantasy-productive in this role even if he’s not currently the same explosive player he was as a rookie. Packers opponents have the league’s ninth-highest pass rate, so Dell should remain busy Sunday.

Richardson’s run of tough luck continues, as he’s set to return against a defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Miami’s schedule has helped, but the Dolphins held Josh Allen to fewer than 10 fantasy points, and no QB has run for more than 10 yards against them all season. The Dolphins have also ceded an NFL-low three passing touchdowns and will be well-prepared coming out of their bye.

Richardson ranks No. 5 in fantasy points per dropback this season despite a difficult schedule and struggling mightily with accuracy, so big upside remains. But this week, there’s the added risk of him leaving mid-game coming off an oblique injury and with Joe Flacco waiting in the wings. Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold are all superior alternatives this week.

Downgrade all Indianapolis wide receivers, who get a tough matchup and will see lower volume; the Colts have averaged 24 pass attempts during Richardson starts but 41 with Joe Flacco.

Start: Jared Goff, Sam Darnold & Jordan Addison

Goff has seven touchdown passes over the last three weeks, and he doesn’t have more than 25 attempts in any game over that span. He’s gotten 12.2 YPA since Week 2. Brian Flores’ defense isn’t an easy assignment, but volume should be there Sunday. Minnesota is a pass-funnel defense that’s allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs but the third-most passing yards. Vikings opponents have by far the highest pass rate (73%) this season, averaging 46.0 attempts (five+ more than the next highest defense). This game also has one of the highest totals (50.5 points) of the week.

Darnold’s TD rate (8.0%) is sure to regress moving forward, but he’s also likely to average more than 27.4 passes per game on an offense with the fourth-highest PROE (+3.7%). An increase in volume should start Sunday against a pass-funnel Detroit defense missing Aidan Hutchinson. Darnold has averaged a whopping 12.1 YPA against man this season, a coverage the Lions have used at the league’s sixth-highest rate. Darnold is my QB6 this week in a pass-heavy, fast-paced matchup.

Addison was quiet his last game in a tough matchup, but he saw a season-high eight targets. Addison should be closer to 100% following Minnesota’s bye, and he gets a pass-funnel Lions defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs but the fourth-most to wide receivers. T.J. Hockenson will remain out, and the Vikings’ passing offense will benefit from Hutchinson’s absence.

Tracy has been highly impressive and fantasy’s RB3 over the last two weeks without Devin Singletary. Tracy’s value drops some with the veteran returning, but Singletary might’ve lost the starting job to the rookie. A Giants’ beat writer speculated Tracy will continue as New York’s lead back even with Singletary playing.

Tracy is a much bigger threat as a receiver (he’s a former WR in college) and looks like a budding star. The Eagles have yielded the second-highest explosive run rate, and New York’s offense will benefit from Malik Nabers’ return. Keep Tracy in lineups.

Bowers leads all tight ends in targets, catches, receiving yards and yards per route run. He’s on pace to have the second-most catches ever by a rookie tight end, and Davante Adams was just traded to New York. Bowers has been targeted on a massive 34% of his routes with Adams off the field this season. His numbers would look even better, but Bowers has had some big plays wiped out by penalties. Jakobi Meyers (ankle) is out, and the Rams have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends and an NFL-high 9.0 YPA. Bowers is my No. 1 fantasy tight end this week.

On the Rams side, Kyren Williams is in a smash spot.

Ekeler saw 88% of the opportunity share last week with Brian Robinson Jr. out, and he gets a much easier matchup Sunday. The Panthers have allowed an NFL-high 12 rushing scores and by far the most fantasy points to running backs this season. The Commanders have easily the highest implied team total this week, projected to score more than 30 points in this fast-paced matchup.

Ekeler looks far healthier this year, so he can be started even with Robinson expected to return from a knee injury.

JuJu Smith-Schuster took over Rashee Rice’s coveted role, but he was a late addition to this week’s injury report with a hamstring issue. He is expected to play through the injury, but it could limit his production. Meanwhile, Worthy could also benefit from the rookie bump frequently seen after a bye week. Worthy saw a 27.3% first-read target rate during his first game without Rice, and now Smith-Schuster is less than 100%.

San Francisco opponents have the sixth-highest pass rate, so Kansas City may have to throw more than usual entering as rare underdogs. This matchup could be high-scoring, and Worthy will be involved even if it takes manufactured touches.

Pickens is due for touchdown regression having the most targets (44) in the league without scoring. A QB switch to Russell Wilson could also be a boost long-term, but Pickens gets a tough Jets’ secondary this week. New York has allowed just four passing touchdowns and the fewest fantasy points to outside receivers this season. The Jets also enter with the league’s sixth-highest pressure rate, which could be a problem for Wilson, who has the third-worst career sack% among all active quarterbacks.

Pickens was on the field for 89% of the pass plays last week, and the QB switch could help, so he’ll be a sneaky trade target after this week’s difficult matchup.

Mayfield was an afterthought during drafts, but he’s been the QB7 or better in five of six weeks. He’s been a top-five fantasy quarterback twice as many weeks (four) this season as Patrick Mahomes has been since 2022. Mayfield’s TD rate (7.9%) will drop, but volume should be there Monday night.

Opponents of Baltimore and Tampa Bay rank third- and fourth-highest in pass rate this season, so the setup looks highly favorable for throwing. The Ravens are a pass-funnel defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs but the third-most to quarterbacks. Mike Evans is banged up, but Mayfield has sneaky rushing equity as well. Start him this week.

Sit Bucky Irving, who’s now part of a ”three-headed monster” and a “hot hand” situation with the emergence of Sean Tucker. Even if Rachaad White, who got in a full practice Saturday, doesn’t return as expected this week, Irving gets a stout Baltimore run defense allowing an NFL-low 3.0 YPC.

McConkey saw the rookie bump coming out of last week’s bye, recording career highs in targets, aDOT and air yards. He was tackled at the one-yard line and missed time (checked for a concussion and later a hip issue that’s limited him in practice this week), so his production could’ve been bigger even in a difficult matchup.

McConkey has seen at least a 25% target share in four of five games and leads L.A. in routes as a rookie despite missing practice with Justin Herbert (foot) throughout August. McConkey ranks top 20 in first-read target rate and 1D/RR (first downs per route run), which are two important future indicators. He’s top 15 in targets per route run.

The Chargers are unquestionably run-heavy, but they have the second-highest neutral pass rate inside the 10-yard line this season. Los Angeles had a season-high +2% PROE during its first game out of the bye and is unlikely to continue playing with the lead so frequently. McConkey has had to face top-10 defenses in WR fantasy points allowed in four of five games this season, but the Chargers’ passing schedule eases up considerably moving forward, starting Monday night against Arizona. The Cardinals have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the slot, where McConkey has run 71% of his routes this year.

Quentin Johnston is doubtful, so McConkey’s a strong start as long as his health cooperates — he carries a questionable tag for the matchup.

Sit Kyler Murray, who hasn’t thrown for 215 yards or more than one touchdown during all five games not facing the league’s worst passing defense (LAR) this season. He’s averaging a career-low 197.7 passing yards despite the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. Murray’s rushing has increased a bit another year removed from knee surgery, but he has zero carries inside the 10-yard line this season. Murray has been a disaster outside of scripted plays; he’s getting 9.6 YPA with seven of his eight touchdowns coming on pass attempts 1-10. Murray is getting 5.6 YPA with a 1:2 TD:INT ratio on attempts 11-plus.

Harrison Jr. has cleared concussion protocol after suffering a scary concussion last week, but the Chargers have allowed the second-lowest EPA/pass and the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Cardinals have a modest implied team total (20.5 points), so Murray is more of a top-15 QB in a week with viable alternatives.

Advice originally included prior to the early kickoff from London on Sunday.

Douglas saw a 33.3% first-read target rate during Drake Maye’s first career start last week. He also led the team in targets, catches and receiving yards despite only playing in 11-personnel. Jacksonville has allowed 8.1 YPA, an NFL-high 14 TD passes and the eighth-most fantasy points to the slot, where Douglas has run 77% of his routes this season. Maye threw more touchdowns in one start than Jacoby Brissett tossed over five games, so New England’s offense suddenly has life.

Tank Bigsby is also worth starting in a favorable matchup with Travis Etienne Jr. out due to a hamstring injury.