Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s First Post-Nominations Read of All 23 Oscar Categories

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon conversations with voters and other industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

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Best Picture

1. Oppenheimer (Universal)
2. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
3. The Holdovers (Focus)
4. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
5. Poor Things (Searchlight)
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)
7. The Zone of Interest (A24)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
9. Past Lives (A24)
10. Maestro (Netflix)

Best Director

1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
3. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
4. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
5. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

Best Actor

1. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) — podcast
2. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
3. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
4. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)

Best Actress

1. Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast
2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Annette Bening (Nyad) — podcast
4. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast
5. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
2. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
3. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
4. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
5. Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast

Best Supporting Actress

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
2. Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast
3. America Ferrera (Barbie)
4. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) — podcast
5. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) — podcast

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
2. Barbie (Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
3. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
4. Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
5. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
2. Past Lives (Celine Song)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet)
4. Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
5. May December (Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik)

Best International Feature

1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
2. Society of the Snow (Spain)
3. The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
4. Io Capitano (Italy)
5. Perfect Days (Japan) — podcast (Wim Wenders)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)
3. The Eternal Memory (MTV)
4. Four Daughters (Kino Lorber)
5. To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)

Best Animated Feature

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
3. Nimona (Netflix)
4. Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
5. Robot Dreams (Neon)

Best Cinematography

1. Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
2. Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
4. Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
5. El Conde (Edward Lachman)

Best Costume Design

1. Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
2. Poor Things (Holly Waddington)
3. Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
5. Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)

Best Film Editing

1. Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
2. Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
3. The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
5. Anatomy of a Fall (Laurent Sénéchal)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Maestro (Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro & Lori McCoy-Bell)
2. Poor Things (Mark Couler, Nadia Stacey & Josh Weston)
3. Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh & Ahou Mofid)
4. Golda (Suzi Battersby, Ashra Kelly-Blue & Karen Hartley Thomas)
5. Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)

Best Original Score

1. Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
3. Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)
4. American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
5. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)

Best Original Song

1. “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie), Billie Eilish & Finneas — podcasts (1 and 2)
2. “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie), Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcast (Ronson)
3. “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony), Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson
4. “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” (Killers of the Flower Moon), Scott George
5. “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot), Diane Warren — podcast

Best Production Design

1. Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
2. Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fisk & Adam Willis)
4. Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & Szusza Mihalek)
5. Napoleon (Elli Griff & Eli Griff)

Best Sound

1. Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell & Gary A. Rizzo)
2. The Zone of Interest (Johnnie Burn)
3. Maestro (Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder & Dean Zupancic)
4. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon & Mark Taylor)
5. The Creator (Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich & Dean Zupancic)

Best Visual Effects

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Theo Bialek, Stephanie Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot & Guy Williams)
2. Godzilla: Minus One (Kosuke Taguchi & Takashi Yamazaki)
3. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One (Neil Corbould, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland & Alex Wuttke)
4. Napoleon (Henry Badgett, Neil Corbould, Charley Henley & Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet)
5. The Creator (Jonathan Bullock, Charmaine Chan, Ian Comley & Jay Cooper)

Best Animated Short

1. War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko (Brad Booker & Dave Mullins)
2. Ninety-Five Senses (Jared Hess & Jerusha Hess)
3. Letter to a Pig (Amit R. Gicelter & Tal Kantor)
4. Our Uniform (Yegane Moghaddam)
5. Pachyderme (Stéphanie Clément & Marc Rius)

Best Documentary Short

1. The ABCs of Book Banning (Trish Adlesic & Sheila Nevins) — podcast (Nevins)
2. The Last Repair Shop (Kris Bowers & Ben Proudfoot)
3. Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó (Sam Davis & Sean Wang)
4. The Barber of Little Rock (John Hoffman & Christine Turner)
5. Island in Between (S. Leo Chiang & Jean Tsien)

Best Live-Action Short

1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Wes Anderson & Steven Rales)
2. Invincible (Samuel Caron & Vincent René-Lortie)
3. Red, White and Blue (Nazrin Choudhury & Sara McFarlane)
4. Knight of Fortune (Lasse Lyskjær Noer & Christian Norlyk)
5. The After (Nicky Bentham & Misan Harriman)

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